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30 Year Itch - Egypt and Yemen

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    Posted: 28 Jan 2011 at 05:56
The news out of those countries has been rapid. Out of the psychological effect from Tunisia we now have massive demonstrations in Egypt and Yemen. Both have been ruled by what can basically be called - one party elites. Yemen is indigent as most live in poverty and Egypt's economy has been sinking. Both countries have had ruling parties for thirty years each. I think what the people want is regime change of their own fruition. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 2011 at 08:15
What sort of regime is it that the people want to see replace the current ones?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Seko- Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 2011 at 08:50
Don't know who will replace Mubarak but one of the front runners is Mohamed El Baradei. Mubarak has been a good US puppet up till now but he has only one alternative, give in to the people's demands or lose. He made it difficult, on purpose, to give up power other than for active opposition movements. The constitution practically favors Mubarak as an untouchable. He left no designated successor.

As for Yemen, I think they are just too poor to care and want the current regime out. Have no clue who would take over but the West is worried that Al-Qaeda supporters would have a say.

Also our President, has shown a lack of will to get involved, such as with Tunisia. Allies like Egypt are bigger investments though. Other than telling Mubarak to listen to his own people, the White House is sitting this one out.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Seko- Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 05:49
Today's observation

Is it any wonder that the government in Egypt is authorizing force and cutting off communications to the outside world?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 07:35
Is this 1968, 1981 or 1989? Sorry for the eurocentric POV, but I'm sure you history buffs will know what I'm asking.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dolphin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 07:52
I find it a little strange that this topic hasn't taken off on the forum.

Quick observation: the fact that one of the most proactive moves of the government was to take down the internet really shows how access to information has changed the world (with attention span the only big casualty so far Wacko).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 07:57
Originally posted by Dolphin Dolphin wrote:

I find it a little strange that this topic hasn't taken off on the forum.

Quick observation: the fact that one of the most proactive moves of the government was to take down the internet really shows how access to information has changed the world (with attention span the only big casualty so far Wacko).


It is also eerily reminiscent of what happened in Iran not so long ago.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 08:07
This is great news.  My heart's with these brave people in their struggle. Best of luck to them. I just hope they don't afflict themselves with something worse.

Quote It is also eerily reminiscent of what happened in Iran not so long ago.


More reminiscent of 1979 Iran - the Americans and British are jumping Mubarak's ship to boot.  Arab regimes would do well to take a master class from Iran on popular repression.


Edited by Zagros - 29 Jan 2011 at 08:10
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 08:22
The cretin presenting ITV news just said of the appearance of Hosni on Egyptian TV: Apologies we don't know what he's saying because we don't have anyone who speaks Egyptian - Well I think even if they did it wouldn't do them much good.
"There was glory in pissing, Corabb decided as he watched the stream curve out and make that familiar but unique sound as it hit the ground." So true.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dolphin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 08:35
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

The cretin presenting ITV news just said of the appearance of Hosni on Egyptian TV: Apologies we don't know what he's saying because we don't have anyone who speaks Egyptian - Well I think even if they did it wouldn't do them much good.

For mistakes like that, I'm really glad of those unemployed busy-bodies that write in and complain about it. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 08:56
Interestingly a few minutes after my post they returned to the Egypt report and the doughnut kept emphasising.  President Mubarak speaking in Arabic.  Obviously someone gave him an earpiece bashing - at least they're not all morons.
"There was glory in pissing, Corabb decided as he watched the stream curve out and make that familiar but unique sound as it hit the ground." So true.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote King Kang of Mu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 09:21
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

This is great news.  My heart's with these brave people in their struggle. Best of luck to them. I just hope they don't afflict themselves with something worse.

Quote It is also eerily reminiscent of what happened in Iran not so long ago.


More reminiscent of 1979 Iran - the Americans and British are jumping Mubarak's ship to boot.  Arab regimes would do well to take a master class from Iran on popular repression.


I think CXI's comment was more about the access to information(or censorship) affected recent popular uprisings but I appreciate your comment very much  in geopolitical terms.

here is what Obama said in an interview.



and I think he summarized where 'the'West' stand on current situation.   First they have to admit that these tyrants have been our allies, especially in 'War against Terror' as if it's a news to the rest of the world, then again for collective Ameican conscious, it is a news .   Then, have to say, 'We told you so....didn't I say 'change'?'.....like Tony Soprano scolding Chris Moltisanti about shooting dope. 

But in comparison to 1979 Iran, do we expect a theocratic regime(s) to arise out of this chaos?  Or can we even identify current situation as a religious uprising, an Islamic revolution? 

From where I can see, least the U.S. media is trying to downplay any possibilities of religious extremists or terrorists connections with current situation(well, if they do it in Fox News, I wouldn't know but most of other mainstream media).  and I can see why U.S. wouldn't want to touch that with a 10ft pole, even if they want to protect these 'tyrants'. 

having said that, current situation is often described in media as 'grassroots movement' or 'leaderless revolution'.   It's not religious, not geopolitical(anti-U.S/West), just bunch of people pissed off at the bad local sheriff.  It might be just that.  I don't know.   But I expect hear this any day now, 'Look!, see what happens when we fight to spread freedom and democracy across the world, especially in this region?'

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 10:33
Heh. Of course, how silly of me.  Revolutions, riots and insurrections never happened before social media.

Quote having said that, current situation is often described in media as 'grassroots movement' or 'leaderless revolution'.   It's not religious, not geopolitical(anti-U.S/West), just bunch of people pissed off at the bad local sheriff.  It might be just that.  I don't know.   But I expect hear this any day now, 'Look!, see what happens when we fight to spread freedom and democracy across the world, especially in this region?'


Revolution is always propelled by the grass roots, representing the entire cross-section of society.  The uncertainty lies in its success. How will the power vacuum be filled? Who will fill it?  Often the most organised faction which in this case is the Muslim Brotherhood.  Will they likewise hijack this revolution (if it succeeds) and rebrand it "Islamic"?  That's what happened in Iran.


Edited by Zagros - 29 Jan 2011 at 10:45
"There was glory in pissing, Corabb decided as he watched the stream curve out and make that familiar but unique sound as it hit the ground." So true.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Omar al Hashim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 11:10
Go Egypt.
Anyone - or everyone - is better than Mubarak.
 
Question: What's Israel doing? The west may not care, but I'm sure Israel does.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 19:02
Oh the West cares alright.  They've backed two horses: Mubarak himself and the other choice should he fall is El Baradei - not much will change where Israel is concerned.   Hopefully the Muslim Brotherhood, if they do take power, will make Egypt's government as moderate as Turkey's.

Though that will present a big problem for Israel.  They have had it cushy all these years with marionette Mubarak in power.
"There was glory in pissing, Corabb decided as he watched the stream curve out and make that familiar but unique sound as it hit the ground." So true.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote King Kang of Mu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 20:50
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

How will the power vacuum be filled? Who will fill it?  Often the most organised faction which in this case is the Muslim Brotherhood.  Will they likewise hijack this revolution (if it succeeds) and rebrand it "Islamic"?  That's what happened in Iran.


That makes sense, least a valid perspective imo. 

not to deviate from Egypt at hand but do you think Iran 79' could have been a sectarian revolution if it wasn't for a few strong religious leaders like Khomeini?  Or even if it was a 'leaderless revolution', it would have eventually reflected religious influence because the religion is a big part of history, culture, politics, their sense of justice, liberty and nationalism, etc? 



Originally posted by Omar al Hashim Omar al Hashim wrote:

Go Egypt.
Anyone - or everyone - is better than Mubarak.


Can't argue with that either.


Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

Oh the West cares alright. 

They've backed two horses: Mubarak himself and the other choice should he fall is El Baradei.....


yes, of course they care.  It's just that these kind of attention make them difficult to defend the boys who have been protecting their interests without damaging the narrative that even after all the false promises and mistakes along the way the presence of the west/U.S. in the region is for the positive overall especially for the democratic progress of the region.  This is why cautious/tentative support for the protesters from the West/U.S. 

The best scenario for West/U.S./Israel would be Mubarak to regain control and appease the protesters by introducing some reform plans, perhaps the western bankers can throw in some economic relief funds, debt forgiveness , food aid like U.N. 'Food for Staying as Friends Program' or something to grease the wheel, but then the most crucial part,  maintain statues quo in foreign policies especially regarding Israel and Gaza.   It almost sounds like a reasonable compromise actually, domestic relief for diplomatic statues quo.  It doesn't even have to be Mubarak actually. just anyone who can deliver that policy toward Israel and the West that will do at this point. It could even be a revolutionary figure why not, as long as who can deliver the crucial diplomatic bottom line.  It might even work better as far as calming down the situation.  Now finding the right person to deliver all that and selling that to the people as their revolution has been fullfilled is whole another quantum physics.

Of course, if you are Fox News or Joe Biden for that matter, then those cautions go out the window.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cglFuiCe6sg&feature=feedu
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3twWTFF0hQ  


Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:


Though that will present a big problem for Israel.  They have had it cushy all these years with marionette Mubarak in power.

Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:


- not much will change where Israel is concerned.   Hopefully the Muslim Brotherhood, if they do take power, will make Egypt's government as moderate as Turkey's.


Funny you mention Turkey.   This guy seems think another Turkey next door size of Egypt would be a nightmare situation for Israel.Wink




Edited by King Kang of Mu - 29 Jan 2011 at 21:14
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 21:32
Originally posted by King Kang of Mu King Kang of Mu wrote:

Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

How will the power vacuum be filled? Who will fill it?  Often the most organised faction which in this case is the Muslim Brotherhood.  Will they likewise hijack this revolution (if it succeeds) and rebrand it "Islamic"?  That's what happened in Iran.


That makes sense, least a valid perspective imo. 

not to deviate from Egypt at hand but do you think Iran 79' could have been a sectarian revolution if it wasn't for a few strong religious leaders like Khomeini?  Or even if it was a 'leaderless revolution', it would have eventually reflected religious influence because the religion is a big part of history, culture, politics, their sense of justice, liberty and nationalism, etc? 


The West propagated Khomeini as a spiritual leader of the revolution and gave him a safe haven and platform to spread his lies.  The idea was that once the despot was gone, the clerics would go and see to religious matters and stay out of politics.  But in the year or so after, they purged rivals and consolidated their power throughout the 80s and 90s.


Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

Oh the West cares alright. 

They've backed two horses: Mubarak himself and the other choice should he fall is El Baradei.....


yes, of course they care.  It's just that these kind of attention make them difficult to defend the boys who have been protecting their interests without damaging the narrative that even after all the false promises and mistakes along the way the presence of the west/U.S. in the region is for the positive overall especially for the democratic progress of the region.  This is why cautious/tentative support for the protesters from the West/U.S.  [/quote]

Absolutely. And the strategic nature of Egypt cannot be ignored;  Britain waged its last direct imperial folly for the Suez.

Quote The best scenario for West/U.S./Israel would be Mubarak to regain control and appease the protesters by introducing some reform plans, perhaps the western bankers can throw in some economic relief funds, debt forgiveness , food aid like U.N. 'Food for Staying as Friends Program' or something to grease the wheel, but then the most crucial part,  maintain statues quo in foreign policies especially regarding Israel and Gaza.   It almost sounds like a reasonable compromise actually, domestic relief for diplomatic statues quo.  It doesn't even have to be Mubarak actually. just anyone who can deliver that policy toward Israel and the West that will do at this point. It could even be a revolutionary figure why not, as long as who can deliver the crucial diplomatic bottom line.  It might even work better as far as calming down the situation.  Now finding the right person to deliver all that and selling that to the people as their revolution has been fullfilled is whole another quantum physics.

Of course, if you are Fox News or Joe Biden for that matter, then those cautions go out the window.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cglFuiCe6sg&feature=feedu
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3twWTFF0hQ  


Quite.

Quote

Funny you mention Turkey.   This guy seems think another Turkey next door size of Egypt would be a nightmare situation for Israel.Wink




Well Israel has had its way for a little too long now.  It's time for some equilibrium and perhaps a fair solution for the Palestinians.  More importantly, a Palestinian friendly Egypt as with a Palestinian friendly Turkey will undermine the Iranian regime's most salient raison d'étre of its foreign policy.  This can only be a good thing all round.   It may make another horrific war in the region less likely with the belligerent having three powerful targets with which to contend.

In addition, I hope that the Arabs are finally rising to shake off the yoke of foreign interests, served by selfish despots and tin-pot monarchs.


Edited by Zagros - 29 Jan 2011 at 21:34
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 22:15
I just heard reports of looting - even by police. I just hope the museums and other ancient relics are spared.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote King Kang of Mu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jan 2011 at 22:29
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

Originally posted by King Kang of Mu King Kang of Mu wrote:

Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

How will the power vacuum be filled? Who will fill it?  Often the most organised faction which in this case is the Muslim Brotherhood.  Will they likewise hijack this revolution (if it succeeds) and rebrand it "Islamic"?  That's what happened in Iran.


That makes sense, least a valid perspective imo. 

not to deviate from Egypt at hand but do you think Iran 79' could have been a sectarian revolution if it wasn't for a few strong religious leaders like Khomeini?  Or even if it was a 'leaderless revolution', it would have eventually reflected religious influence because the religion is a big part of history, culture, politics, their sense of justice, liberty and nationalism, etc? 


The West propagated Khomeini as a spiritual leader of the revolution and gave him a safe haven and platform to spread his lies.  The idea was that once the despot was gone, the clerics would go and see to religious matters and stay out of politics.  But in the year or so after, they purged rivals and consolidated their power throughout the 80s and 90s.


 
Oh yeah, I knew that actually, just forgot about that because when I think of the Islamic extremism supported by the West, it starts with Mujahideen or some extreme Wahhabist sect nowdays, hehehe.  Thanks for remiding me of that part of the history.   

Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

I just heard reports of looting - even by police. I just hope the museums and other ancient relics are spared.
 
I saw some footages few hour ago that Egyptian Army is joining the protesters in some places.....and also people organizing to protect museums from, fire and looting.   Some good news but still long way to go.....
 
 
here is an interview about the Army just uploaded
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote drgonzaga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2011 at 04:28
Gee...I do recall raising implications when events in Tunisia came to the fore and all the info was coming through tweets and the Internet.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2011 at 05:07
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

Revolution is always propelled by the grass roots, representing the entire cross-section of society.
 
No it isn't, unless you're redefining 'revolution' so as to exclude those cases where it isn't. For instance it isn't true of the French revolution or the American revolution or the English Civil War. In most - or at least many - revolutions the driving force is from one faction, usually an elite, fighting another one for control of the government. Palace coups of that kind used to be commonplace in Latin America and Eastern Europe and other places where no-one paid much attention to the needs or welfare of most of the population.
 
Note that I'm not saying popular grass-roots never occur, merely that they frequently do.
 
Also I have no idea what the situation is in Egypt or the Yemen.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2011 at 06:09
When an elite propel revolution I believe the it's called putsch. You muddle my word of choice, propel, with trigger.  Revolution is propelled by enough of society to topple an existing establishment of government.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2011 at 06:15
I sniff a US gambit in here somewhere.  I think they've bought the army chiefs to use as a wild card in case an undesirable takes power.  It wouldn't be the first time in recent history.

This suspicion for me holds water because the army have not been getting themselves involved despite the ransacking of government institutions; as well as the convergence of Western leaders on Mubarak, insisting that he stands down, in one way or another.

Now, the only question that remains for me is motive for any such subterfuge.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2011 at 06:17
Originally posted by drgonzaga drgonzaga wrote:

Gee...I do recall raising implications when events in Tunisia came to the fore and all the info was coming through tweets and the Internet.


Oh, you trailblazer, you.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote drgonzaga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2011 at 07:27
Why Zagros just call me Natty BumpoWink, but I do recall recall some ancillary commentaries on "urban violence and rioting" not really being representative of effective political action within a North African setting. What I find fascinating is that the populance itself wants to ensure that "opportunists" not discredit the authenticity of political action by engaging in looting and other vandalisms as captured by the posting on this blog--
 
 
Now what is of interest in the "reporting" is the hesitance to employ the terms "revolutionary or revolution" and instead one encounters the turn to hedge words such as "urban protests" or "demonstrations". Frankly, I am suspicious of your own "sniffing out" a U.S. gambit since essentially, the composition of the Egyptian army would ensure that they react in their own interests as a political institution. The notion that they would dance to the tune of an "external" piper is a bit too much to swallow given the past. I suspect that the confluence of modernizing forces with economic crisis is in effect demanding popular political participation rather than the present facade of authoritarianism behind a supposedly parliamentary structure.


Edited by drgonzaga - 30 Jan 2011 at 07:28
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2011 at 08:42
It is a suspicion, and only that for now, which has precedence - specifically in Turkey when the army took over in the early 80s resulting in a terrible fascist regime. 

Spooky, hmm? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/us-officials-backed-rebels-planning-egyptian-uprising-in-2008-wikileaks/article1887439/

Call me Natty Bumpo.


Edited by Zagros - 30 Jan 2011 at 08:45
"There was glory in pissing, Corabb decided as he watched the stream curve out and make that familiar but unique sound as it hit the ground." So true.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2011 at 08:47
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

I sniff a US gambit in here somewhere.  I think they've bought the army chiefs to use as a wild card in case an undesirable takes power.  It wouldn't be the first time in recent history.

This suspicion for me holds water because the army have not been getting themselves involved despite the ransacking of government institutions; as well as the convergence of Western leaders on Mubarak, insisting that he stands down, in one way or another.

Now, the only question that remains for me is motive for any such subterfuge.


The US are absolutely terrified; they've made an uncomfortable bed for themselves for decades, aiding and befriending authoritarian leaders in order to secure commercial ties and to shore up larger geopolitical issues.

I can imagine Obama, the chiefs, and his advisors are watching these events very very closely. Tea party chaos and demagogue idiots are quite irrelevant when such truly totemic events are taking place in a pivotal part of the world. I'd imagine that the US is hoping for a military coup if some newly elected government turn out to be an altogether more nasty phenonomon. America has learnt from 1979, there will be no Islamic revolution in Egypt if they get their way.

It would be much more interesting, and heartening, if the Muslim Brotherhood become an Egyptian AK Party, kinda like an Islamic US Republican party. The considerable liberal, secular, Christian and other forces in Egyptian society would then form an inchoate opposition party, in turn creating a healthy and fairly secular democracy in one of the most important countries in the region. Here's hoping.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2011 at 09:02

Hello to you all

 
Few points here that need to be clarified due to the fact that people here have no idea about Egypt or what is happening.
 
First, this is not a revolution nor it has anything in common with what happened in Iran or Tunisia. Egypt has seen this type of rioting before, in 2008, 2006, 1987 and 1977. The only major difference is that unlike the previous years, the government gave the population some leeway which was wrong and was the reason why the problem morphed into the way it is right now.
 
Second, the regime is quite stable and Mubarak did not repeat the Tunisian president's mistake of giving in to some of the demands of the people. When demos in Tunisia were only limited in a certain part of the country Ben Ali came on TV and gave major concessions to the people. The next day demos erupted all over the country because the regime was proven to be weak and days later Ben Ali fell. Mubarak came and said without flinching that he will clamp down on rioting and breakers of the law and he did. Just a couple of hours ago 17 demonstrators were shot to death in a provincial town and much publicity was given to this incident to make people fear. Also the death toll is quite high probably well over 100 who were killed yesterday. All the changes he did were changes that assured the people that the regime is still in control. He appointed a military cabinet and a military man as his VP in a clear message that he won't budge nor the regime will change.
 
Third, Mubarak is still popular in Egypt. Regardless of what people may think the regime has a very strong base of support across the country. This being said doesn't mean there is support for his own party. His party is not part of the regime but a consequence of it. People hate it.
 
Fourth about the US and the west etc. The Egyptian military is independent of the west or US control. A large part of the Egyptian economy is controlled by the military and the military form a class quite similar to the military class in Turkey. When there is a conflict of interest the Egyptian military won't waite for US apporval nor will it care about what Israel thinks.
 
Fifth, Egypt is not Iran nor the muslim brotherhood like the Bazar-Houzah alliance. The brotherhood has limited support in most areas of Egypt and its reputation has had a hit after they held meetings with Condi and the American ambassador some years ago. Plus their performance after they got 20% of the seats in parliament was dismal. They spent half the time trying to ban a Lebanese singer from entering because she appears semi naked at stage and the other half launching a crusade to allow that same singer to enter after she sang a song praising the Hezb resistance during the 2006 war.
 
Al-Jassas
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2011 at 09:16
Originally posted by Parnell Parnell wrote:

Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

I sniff a US gambit in here somewhere.  I think they've bought the army chiefs to use as a wild card in case an undesirable takes power.  It wouldn't be the first time in recent history.

This suspicion for me holds water because the army have not been getting themselves involved despite the ransacking of government institutions; as well as the convergence of Western leaders on Mubarak, insisting that he stands down, in one way or another.

Now, the only question that remains for me is motive for any such subterfuge.


The US are absolutely terrified; they've made an uncomfortable bed for themselves for decades, aiding and befriending authoritarian leaders in order to secure commercial ties and to shore up larger geopolitical issues.

I can imagine Obama, the chiefs, and his advisors are watching these events very very closely. Tea party chaos and demagogue idiots are quite irrelevant when such truly totemic events are taking place in a pivotal part of the world. I'd imagine that the US is hoping for a military coup if some newly elected government turn out to be an altogether more nasty phenonomon. America has learnt from 1979, there will be no Islamic revolution in Egypt if they get their way.

It would be much more interesting, and heartening, if the Muslim Brotherhood become an Egyptian AK Party, kinda like an Islamic US Republican party. The considerable liberal, secular, Christian and other forces in Egyptian society would then form an inchoate opposition party, in turn creating a healthy and fairly secular democracy in one of the most important countries in the region. Here's hoping.
 
The brotherhood are not the AKP nor the AKP a religious party to begin with. The AKP is a secular part with a leadership that is mostly religious.
 
The brotherhood are a bunch of thieves and power seekers. They have a black history and the majority of Egyptians don't support them. They tried to organise rallies like these and failed and in 2005 they barely managed to get 10% of the total eligible voters to the polls.
 
Also please don't say the 1979 Iranian revolution was an Islamic one. It wasn't. Tudeh, the largest communist party probably outside the USSR and China, was the driving force behind the revolution. When Khomaini came his had no official capacity nor any power except that given to him as an elder stateman by Beni Sadr who was a secularist and formed an entirely secularist government (women were forced to wear Hijab in 1982 or 1983 after Beni Sadr was ousted in the Islamist coup of 1981).
 
Al-Jassas
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2011 at 10:04
Let Middle Easterners solve theirs political problems, no matter the consecuences.
That people is fighting for freedom. That's what should matters in the west. Putting dictators there, remotely controlled, is not the right strategy. Let's spread democracy, which is the only antidote for dictatorships of any kind, Muslim included.


Edited by pinguin - 30 Jan 2011 at 10:04
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