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AGW - Anthropogenic Global Warming poll

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Poll Question: Is it really man made?
Poll Choice Votes Poll Statistics
9 [56.25%]
3 [18.75%]
4 [25.00%]
You can not vote in this poll

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    Posted: 19 Dec 2009 at 05:27
It's that time again to update our position on what we here at AE think about this issue in light of the stolen/leaked emails.

Man made or a natural cycle?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Dec 2009 at 08:45
What can a poll tell about this issue? What You and I vote does not make it more or less anthropogenic! If 99,99% of humanity voted for a flat earth, would it make it just an inch flatter?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Dec 2009 at 09:00
If a trillion flies like s---t it doesn't mean it tastes great
 
Anyways, global warming is a fact. The problem is what caused it. How much is really comming from polution, and what is comming from cutting the trees, or even for the construction of buildings and highways? Even more, how much could be just the effect of a natural event such as the increasing of solar activity? We have long fluctuations of termperatures before. Even in the Middle Ages there was a small ice age.
 
The question is not what has happened but how. If the main cause is a change of solar activity, for example, no campain to stop the carbon emitions would succeed.
 


Edited by pinguin - 19 Dec 2009 at 09:01
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Dec 2009 at 09:30

Pinguin, from my point of view the right thing would have been redutions now, though I was not sure anything effective would be done. Perhaps even most countries do the "wrong thing", but if there is some "worst cases" perhaps negotiations do not work. I believe more in sanctions, and hope not my own countries deserves such sanctions, though I am not so sure.In other word;it could be justiofied to sacrifice some of the benefits of "globalised" economy to press for not only climate but other issues of human destruction of a liveable planet.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Dec 2009 at 12:38
Uncommitted.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Dec 2009 at 12:44
The poll is badly phrased. There needs to be a 'both' option, because there's no reason why both a natural cycle and human intervention are involved: indeed they probably are.
 
Anyway as I've pointed out before, there are a zillion reasons why we shouldn't be so dependent on burning hydrocarbons, especially 'fossil' ones, so whether or not doing so would affect average temperature is unimportant.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Panther Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Dec 2009 at 22:39
Originally posted by gcle2003 gcle2003 wrote:

The poll is badly phrased. There needs to be a 'both' option, because there's no reason why both a natural cycle and human intervention are involved: indeed they probably are.
 


I didn't realize both points could coexist together, at least that has never been addressed as far as i am aware? I thought one was either for, against or non-committed?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Dec 2009 at 23:59
The leaked emails change nothing other than prove that laymen are incapable of understanding the science, and will use whatever means necessary to create non scientific justifications for skepticism.

I don't know. It may or may not be caused by mankind. My interests and passion lie with the study of the past, not with natural science. If, for example, I had lung cancer, I wouldn't second guess my doctor about the causes of it. I could make myself feel better by convincing myself that my 20 a day habit played no role in the illness, but its a delusion. I wouldn't have the medical expertise to make the judgement in any case. The same largely goes with climate change in my eyes. I don't know anything about the science other than rough newspaper driven generalties, and there's a good chance I'll never be able to understand it. It must drive scientists absolutely insane having to constantly justify their findings to a general public who may as well be illiterate when it comes to this. I'm not going to second guess the overwhelming majority of climate scientists on something I know nothing about. Call me naieve, but I think the consequences of ignoring experts are much more severe than allowing 'the ignorant masses' to decide policy over a climatic issue. (And thats a bit of an accidental pun, by the way)


Edited by Parnell - 20 Dec 2009 at 00:00
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Dec 2009 at 10:54
Originally posted by Panther Panther wrote:

Originally posted by gcle2003 gcle2003 wrote:

The poll is badly phrased. There needs to be a 'both' option, because there's no reason why both a natural cycle and human intervention are involved: indeed they probably are.
 


I didn't realize both points could coexist together, at least that has never been addressed as far as i am aware? I thought one was either for, against or non-committed?
 
Well there is undoubtedly a natural cycle. Average temperatures have been fluctuatiing up and down ever since the original gas cloud collapsed into a planet. I don't think anyone disputes that (though I guess you cannot overestimate stupidity).
 
The question is whether there is also a warming effect induced by the increase in hydrocarbon burning and similar emissions due to human activity. That's a bit more debatable, though I think the evidence is that there is such an effect. Here in Luxembourg alone in the last couple of years we have had the wettest month on record, the sunniest month on record and the warmest month on record - and at the moment we look like facing the coldest month on record.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Panther Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Dec 2009 at 23:31
Originally posted by gcle2003 gcle2003 wrote:

Well there is undoubtedly a natural cycle. Average temperatures have been fluctuatiing up and down ever since the original gas cloud collapsed into a planet. I don't think anyone disputes that (though I guess you cannot overestimate stupidity).
 


I see. No you can't overestimate stupidity, especially on the flip side of the coin, when someone comes up with the brilliant idea of combining science and politics and expecting the results to be all rosy!

Quote
The question is whether there is also a warming effect induced by the increase in hydrocarbon burning and similar emissions due to human activity. That's a bit more debatable, though I think the evidence is that there is such an effect.


I like to think i haven't been unreasonable on this issue. Yes there has been some very good collected evidence of human carbon footprint, with glacial cores being one of the more impressive so far i think. But whatever that evidence pertains too should have never been automatically concluded from day one by some politicians (ahem... GoreErmm) and eventually science/scientists as the evils of human industrial activity is what is destroying the planet!? It's like they were begging for fight instead of a debate? Hence... why i thought it was seen only in black and white.

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 Here in Luxembourg alone in the last couple of years we have had the wettest month on record, the sunniest month on record and the warmest month on record - and at the moment we look like facing the coldest month on record.


That is intriguing. What is the normal climatology for Luxembourg?


Edited by Panther - 20 Dec 2009 at 23:32
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Omar al Hashim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 01:16
Uncommitted. I have a hard time believing that we can model the climate system sufficiently well to have any real idea of what is going on. In Aus we are surrounded by the evidence of when the sea was 90m higher, I'm not so worried about 1m. We might be, we might not be affecting the climate, in terms of end results, I don't really care. For two reasons;
1) I think our current industrial system, esp the burning of hydrocarbons, is an inefficient and poor system that is hindering innovation. I'd be happy to see the back of any old technology when we have better new ones to replace it with.
2) Any climate change that even might bring more rain has got to be tried out.

The only downside of the carbon hysteria is the proliferation of nuclear power. Nuclear waste is a serious and permanent threat. We should not be exchanging carbon waste for nuclear waste.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote drgonzaga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 11:34
Originally posted by pinguin pinguin wrote:

If a trillion flies like s---t it doesn't mean it tastes great
 
Anyways, global warming is a fact. The problem is what caused it. How much is really comming from polution, and what is comming from cutting the trees, or even for the construction of buildings and highways? Even more, how much could be just the effect of a natural event such as the increasing of solar activity? We have long fluctuations of termperatures before. Even in the Middle Ages there was a small ice age.
 
The question is not what has happened but how. If the main cause is a change of solar activity, for example, no campain to stop the carbon emitions would succeed.
 
 
It is? After all, the conclusion depends entirely upon your place of observation! Global surface temperatures? Stratospheric temperature ranges? What of Planetary "Long Waves" in atmospheric circulation or the effect of cold on the disintegration of ozone? There are a host of factors, apart from the nexus of solar chemistry and even axial variations in terrestrial orbit, ambiental modifications do create their own weather patterns, but the essential issue of climatic change as a consequence of "carbon emissions" is but another example of a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 12:53
Originally posted by drgonzaga drgonzaga wrote:

  but the essential issue of climatic change as a consequence of "carbon emissions" is but another example of a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.


Never a truer word spoken. But alas, my little knowledge seems to tell me that climatology is not your area of expertise?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 15:37
Originally posted by Panther Panther wrote:

Originally posted by gcle2003 gcle2003 wrote:

  Here in Luxembourg alone in the last couple of years we have had the wettest month on record, the sunniest month on record and the warmest month on record - and at the moment we look like facing the coldest month on record.


That is intriguing. What is the normal climatology for Luxembourg?
 
Standard western Europe temperate zone. Not unlike England actually but a wee bit hotter in the summer and a wee bit colder in the winter. Average monthly rainfall 2 to 3 inches (50-75 mm) without much difference between the months. Rains at least a bit about half the days in the year.
 
Average winter temperatures are a couple of degrees below freezing, average summer ones around 23 C. But you get short spells colder than that, and if you're lucky, spells over 30 C in the summer.
 
Gets colder in the north, which is higher and more barren, and they get more snow - Battle of the Bulge country. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 15:54
You're not allowed to have an opinion on climate change unless you're an expert.  Is this the new mantra of the climate elite?

Well it is quite telling how, emails aside, many of these experts are unwilling to release their raw data and methodologies for scrutiny - very unscientific behaviour.  It seems they like their monopoly on interpretation and numbers can be fudged to represent anything.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 16:28
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

You're not allowed to have an opinion on climate change unless you're an expert.  Is this the new mantra of the climate elite?

Well it is quite telling how, emails aside, many of these experts are unwilling to release their raw data and methodologies for scrutiny - very unscientific behaviour.  It seems they like their monopoly on interpretation and numbers can be fudged to represent anything.


You're allowed the same opinion the patient has when diagnosed with cancer by the doctor - complete and utter ignorance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 16:30
Crap analogy.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 16:40
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

Crap analogy.


Better than yours though!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 16:53
I don't believe I made one.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote drgonzaga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 17:01
Originally posted by Parnell Parnell wrote:

Originally posted by drgonzaga drgonzaga wrote:

  but the essential issue of climatic change as a consequence of "carbon emissions" is but another example of a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.


Never a truer word spoken. But alas, my little knowledge seems to tell me that climatology is not your area of expertise?
 
And where it relates to "weather" no one elses either! After all, the actual terminal degree falls under Chemistry (Atmospheric, that is), but no Science pontificates in the manner the current agiprop crowd asserts. They are fiddling with computers and nothing else, although as can be discerned many actually believe "global warming" means it will get hellishly hot! Besides it was this very crowd that a decade ago was warning of a new Ice Age! Then there is the old scenario of a "nuclear winter" and all brought to you courtesy of the old conspirators that gave us "international" bodies, politicians and the Media!
 
What, you don't believe me? Think back on the original The Day the Earth Stood Still...
 
There are a hell of a million reasons for society to regulate the by-products of economic activities, but the current scenario is not one of them and what it is actually accomplishing is detrimental to the integrity of scientific research.
 
Science as a wailing Cassandra is poppycock...and by the way, I am as much of a "scientist" as the large number of idiots who belong to the Association of Concerned Scientists...sorry Parnell but in the age of quantum physics, this "certainty" crap requires regular flushing. By the way, the snow that fell of Houston and later produced the Blizzard of '09 from North Carolina to Maine, should be reaching Ireland and the UK shortly (probably Friday). Happy toasting!Wink
 
 


Edited by drgonzaga - 21 Dec 2009 at 22:20
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 17:18
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

I don't believe I made one.


That was the point.

Dr.,

I don't know, I've already made that clear. But there are far too many half arsed skeptics in the worlds who only come out with this stuff because its controversial. Yourself and Zagros of course are not in that category... but I can't help but be skeptical of the skeptics.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 18:19
Refusing to control hydrocarbon fuel burning because it might not stop the earth's climate getting more volatile is like someone refusing to stop smoking because stopping smoking won't improve your vision.
 
The argument is practically speaking pointless, though there may be an academically interesting scientific point buried in there somewhere.


Edited by gcle2003 - 21 Dec 2009 at 18:20
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 19:02
I am in the same camp as Graham.  I believe we need to cut wastefulness but for more honest reasons.  I don't know whether our activities positively affect global warming or not but what I do know is that the method of argument from celebrity climate scientists is unscientific when they use such convincing soundbites as:

"there is as much evidence that we cause global warming as there is for smoking causing lung cancer."

"Oh is there? Can I see the basis on which you make such an assertion?"

"No, just take my word for it becuz I is an expert and I has the evedenz!"

Originally posted by Parnell Parnell wrote:

Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

I don't believe I made one.


That was the point.


So the point was that I didn't make an analogy. 

Thumbs Up

0 out of 10 for logic.




Edited by Zagros - 21 Dec 2009 at 19:06
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 19:05
0 out of 10 for irony detection.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 19:11
Well I knew it was an attempt at a smart arsed retort but it was missing logic, hence its redaction and your skepticism of skeptics, which in consequence seems a little childish now.

Edited by Zagros - 21 Dec 2009 at 19:13
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 19:23
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

Well I knew it was an attempt at a smart arsed retort but it was missing logic, hence its redaction and your skepticism of skeptics, which in consequence seems a little childish now.


Who's a moany Michael today?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 20:00
I would have been pleased if your irony had some resonance but instead I found myself questioning its basis.  You suck at comedy. Hug Now come give me a hug you big girl.


Edited by Zagros - 21 Dec 2009 at 20:01
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 20:40
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

I would have been pleased if your irony had some resonance but instead I found myself questioning its basis.  You suck at comedy. Hug Now come give me a hug you big girl.


No Zagros. This may be the season of good will but I must maintain my veneer of aloofness.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote drgonzaga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 22:49
Parnell, what disgusts me and what should make all very, very wary is the demeaning of scientific research for the purpose of politcs and ideological fancies. In a way, during the last 50 years "scientific research" has become an adjunct of political funding and in many ways it is this marriage that has given birth to volumes of "declaratory discoveries" that gave meaning to the term junk science. No one argues against the deletorious effects of emitted industrial particulates and effluents, for goodness sakes Beijing is to today's world what London was to that of the 19th century: a laboratory for the study of lung disease! However, in terms of Academia, there is just to much polemical posturing tailoring research so as to reach desired conclusions. In the chase for "dinero" through the government grant process abstract proposals almost become the abstract of the conclusion even before one dime is spent! Should we worry about deforestation? Most certainly but not in terms of the apocalyptic blatherings proferred. A major volcanic eruption such as ones that recur naturally within the planetary cycle would have just as important climatic consequence and much more sharply than any increase in CO2 emissions of some 5% from present levels. Then, there is this disturbing little fact, the factors involved are so complex and the amount of data so limited that any appeal to doomsday is but foolish rhetoric. Then there is the inescapable fact that all of these ditherings are premised upon the creation of planetary stasis! Each time such discussions arise one need only invoke the name Heisenberg and leave the dithering dolts to choke upon the verbiage of their suppositions. One seeks alternative energy resources because petroleum is a limited resource with a finite period of use. Likewise, during its period of use, technological efficiency should be applied so as to control its harmful consequences. In that respect the nonsense of "carbon sinks" only serves to underscore just how bankrupt the political notions shaping the debate really are!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 2009 at 23:02
What I find hilarious is that drilling for oil and gas by Cairn is to start one year early off the coast of a territory owned by the hosts of the recent debacle of a climate conference.

Quote the government grant process abstract proposals almost become the abstract of the conclusion even before one dime is spent!


Absolutely true.
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