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American/Iranian deal

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Chieftain

Joined: 10 Feb 2006
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    Posted: 28 Sep 2013 at 04:00
Apparently, Iran is reaching for a deal to end 34 year animosity with US. How optimistic are you toward this matter? Is it serious or not? how does it affect American policies or the ME in general?
"Turn yourself not away from three best things: Good Thought, Good Word, and Good Deed" Zoroaster.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Sep 2013 at 05:05
Important questions to be asked:

*How much freedom will the US Pres have to agree to such a deal when the Israel lobby sees it as being against their interests?
*How much is Iran willing to sacrifice to secure such a deal? It's hard to imagine the US being open to it when the potential for nuclear proliferation cannot be dismissed with certainty.
*How willing will the US be to agree to a deal, when the existing status quo makes life much harder for your average Iranian than it does for your average American?


Another important point I am very keen to address is whether America is actually very satisfied with the way things are going. Iran has huge political and economic troubles, and a large group of people at home who want regime change. Some in the US may think that regime change may not be too far away; just a pile on a few more straws and the camel's back will break. Reconciliation will deprive the US of opportunities for imposing punitive measures that destabilise the regime.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Harburs Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2013 at 18:08
Originally posted by Constantine XI Constantine XI wrote:

Important questions to be asked:

1*How much freedom will the US Pres have to agree to such a deal when the Israel lobby sees it as being against their interests?
2*How much is Iran willing to sacrifice to secure such a deal? It's hard to imagine the US being open to it when the potential for nuclear proliferation cannot be dismissed with certainty.
3*How willing will the US be to agree to a deal, when the existing status quo makes life much harder for your average Iranian than it does for your average American?


Another important point I am very keen to address is whether America is actually very satisfied with the way things are going. Iran has huge political and economic troubles, and a large group of people at home who want regime change. Some in the US may think that regime change may not be too far away; just a pile on a few more straws and the camel's back will break. Reconciliation will deprive the US of opportunities for imposing punitive measures that destabilise the regime.

1. Israel won't stop till Iranian nuclear facilities are completely dismantled and destroyed. Israel used Ahmadi Nejad rants to the maximum level to isolate Iran and pass Israeli-favored laws in American congress. Now, it will defend them will everything it has got. Only a strong-willed President and his govt can overturn this tide. I think American Pres down play the Iranian efforts as much as they can to satisfy AIPAC.

2. As much as I can see, it is the matter of economy which pushed Iranian regime and public to come to a new deal with US. Iranian public is pro west in general but Iranian regime's  top ranking officials were always against Western blocks and suspicious of US and UK. Ahmadi nejad mismanagement and poor foreign policies brought a disastrous result for the regime. The new president took office while Iranian oil export has decline to 30% of its capacity and government is in dept up to its nose to central bank, private banks and third party companies (New govt admitted the number of 70 bil $ so far). This means Iran has a large dept while it has a larger budget deficit.
There is no foreign entity to barrow money from or invest in local profitable projects. There is no Iranian company or private bank to barrow money as well. Ahmadi nejad has dried them all up and cause thousands of government contractor companies to go bankrupt. 

Considering this, I tell Iranian regime is desperate, and have to give up on many things, but it wants to haggle for the price. There is a chance if some restrictions are lifted, then regime stabilizes itself and goes back on the same old track. This is the hope of Iranian supreme leader who is a hardliner and have an anti-west anti-democracy attitude. So the supreme leader most likely want to play with west and save his throne with low cost. But, there are many reformists in the regime who want Iran to have a better relationship with the world and have a prosperous economy while adopting useful (compatible with a liberal Muslim mind) western ideas (social, economic, scientific and so). The reformists have been pushed to the sideline for past 8 years and have limited power in Iranian regime. This group will work with Western power to solve the problem if they have the power, otherwise there is no hope for this deal. Because it will be a time wasting tactic with no useful results.

3. As you mention the actual victims are Iranian civilians. They are the one who take a financial hit and they are the one whose lives have been ruined. The regime has its grip on power and limited resources to survive just like the North Korean leaders. If it comes to that day they simply refuse sharing the resources with the public and the lives of average Iranian will be just like Iraqis during last days of Saddam.
"Turn yourself not away from three best things: Good Thought, Good Word, and Good Deed" Zoroaster.
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