| FORUM | ARCHIVE |                    | TOTAL QUIZ RESULT |


  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - BREXIT?
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login


Welcome stranger, click here to read about some of the great benefits of registering for a free account with us and joining us in our global online community.


BREXIT?

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5088
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: BREXIT?
    Posted: 11 Dec 2018 at 00:14
The British parliaments intention  to exit the European Union was predicated, in part, to protect British borders. I'm of the understanding that BREXIT will have serious implications for the British economy, which has already suffered from the BREXIT talks.

The British people have voted by a narrow margin for BREXIT, and it was upon this vote that BREXIT actually came into being.

For Northern Ireland, the issues are not clear as they relate to a hoped for unification of the 32 counties. The Republic of Ireland, a member of the EU, classifies all Irish people as Irish, notwithstanding their political or religious  leanings, and at a minimum wants an open border between the Republic and the counties of Northern Ireland.

Scotland and Wales seem likely to continue opposition to BREXIT, and this could possibly force a constitutional crisis-remember that Scotland voted to remain, virtually, a part of the United Kingdom, but only by a narrow margin.

The separation of the United Kingdom is a potential outcome if the present issues are not resolved.

Prime Minister May faces increasing calls for a new BREXIT referendum, and for her resignation.

Could this be the end for the UK as we know it?

It's not that I was born in Ireland,
It's the Ireland that was born in me.
Back to Top
Sponsored Links


Back to Top
caldrail View Drop Down
Chieftain
Chieftain
Avatar

Joined: 21 Jan 2014
Location: Rushey Platt
Status: Offline
Points: 1082
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote caldrail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Dec 2018 at 11:28
Brexit is a difficult situation. The public voted to leave, narrow margin or not, based on perceptions of the EU, the apparent lack of control over own borders and policies, and the frustration of competition for jobs with EU migrants.
 
A second referendum is being pursued by those who either feel the initial decision was wrong or that the situation has changed to warrant another. I disagree. The situation was predictable and seriously, did no-one realise the implications the first time around? The issue however is that a second vote is not democratic. it's like demanding to replay our world cup match against Croatia because we lost and want a different result.
 
As for May, despite her persistence and determination, she remains a poor public speaker and not an especially rousing leader. She has of course survived a vote of no-confidence and that makes her immune to leadership contest for twelve months.
 
As for Corbyn, he wants one thing and that's to grab power so he can pursue his agenda of nationalisation. Truth be told, his ambition is such that he doesn't care that much about Brexit and quite clearly would happily wreck any deal if it got him closer to No10.
 
The dreaded Backstop? I can't see what the issue is. The idea is to preserve the open border in Ireland and avoid any contention leading to a revival of hostilities over there. The problem for the EU is that Ireland would be the only such land border in their bureaucratic empire and they don't like it. I mean, really? Is it that threatening? Also the EU have agreed a deal with May and won't tolerate another, so talk about a deal like Canada or Norway is rather speculative. Opposition politicians talk about doing a deal with the EU once May's plan is defeated in the Commons but the EU aren't likely to play ball. They don't want endless negotiation toward a deal they won't agree with and I prophesied that at the beginning.
 
So we're left with three difficult choices. Firstly the plan offered by May. Not perfect, not even palatable to some, but at least a dignified exit and a framework for future negotiation toward something better. Secondly, we crash over the edge, no deal, and suffer the consequences of a difficult decade or two. Thirdly, we don't leave, which is worryingly un-democratic and a political loss of face even if the EU courts have decided we can still have all our negotiated deals intact.
 
The UK is rather more secure than it seems to be to you. The Scots, ever the most vocal in calls for independence, have already voted to remain in the UK, and even though SNP MP's are not going to go away, they don't have the majority to threaten the Union. Of course the Auld Alliance will never go away either, thus Scotland is rather less willing as a region to separate from Europe (Scotland and France historically have enjoyed a closer relationship than England). The issue with Ireland is of course whether an open border is retained. Wales is less contentious and probably remains so for the foreseeable future. Calls for the independence of Cornwall are really not taken that seriously.
http://www.unrv.com/forum/blog/31-caldrails-blog/
Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5088
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Dec 2018 at 00:28
So, it seems that BREXIT will continue as the British policy. I don't know enough about the financial implications, but, as I understand it, there will be difficult times ahead for the UK.

Rather than continue the debate on the Irish border situation, I'd like for the UK government, in the near future, making a decision to unite the six counties with the Republic of Ireland. That, of course, would depend on the outcome of a referendum of the Northern Irish people, and could possibly by lost.

Since the Good Friday Agreement, it seems to me that the two opposing sides have lived side by side, more or less peacefully, which would bode well for a unification.

Northern Ireland (Ulster), if reunited with the Republic could find itself in a far better economic position that at present.

I know what you mean about the border control and employment issues,and they are very real. From my reading, membership of the EU has made it much easier for Eastern European organised crime to flourish in the UK, as if it needs any more crime!!
It's not that I was born in Ireland,
It's the Ireland that was born in me.
Back to Top
Vanuatu View Drop Down
Arch Duke
Arch Duke
Avatar

Joined: 23 Feb 2015
Location: New England
Status: Offline
Points: 1760
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jan 2019 at 03:19
Caldrail, ?
What's this? Are UK citizens getting the same "Invented Brand" news as the US enjoys? 
Do they dislike May bc she held hands with Trump?Tongue
76% of MP's plump for no deal? Since May is a bad PM and er.. doing a bad job.. anyway. As for an actual reason, well umm there is the Ireland backstop, yes EU members would positively balk.

“Some 72% of voters currently intending to support the Conservatives think the warnings are ‘exaggerated or invented’ – a figure that rises to 76% among Tory members.
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please." - Mark Twain
Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5088
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jan 2019 at 03:42
Quote http://https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/04/most-tory-members-would-choose-no-deal-over-may-brexit-plan
“Some 72% of voters currently intending to support the Conservatives think the warnings are ‘exaggerated or invented’ – a figure that rises to 76% among Tory members.

But that's not the whole story, is it?

Many elected members, on both sides of politics believe that BREXIT with no deal will be worse for the UK than being a member is at present.

The so-called back stop, the hard border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland can still be negotiated if the UK remains with the EU.
It's not that I was born in Ireland,
It's the Ireland that was born in me.
Back to Top
Vanuatu View Drop Down
Arch Duke
Arch Duke
Avatar

Joined: 23 Feb 2015
Location: New England
Status: Offline
Points: 1760
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jan 2019 at 04:16
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Quote http://https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/04/most-tory-members-would-choose-no-deal-over-may-brexit-plan
“Some 72% of voters currently intending to support the Conservatives think the warnings are ‘exaggerated or invented’ – a figure that rises to 76% among Tory members.

But that's not the whole story, is it?

Many elected members, on both sides of politics believe that BREXIT with no deal will be worse for the UK than being a member is at present.

The so-called back stop, the hard border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland can still be negotiated if the UK remains with the EU.
Hold the phone. In the article from several hours ago, the majority of MP's prefer No Deal to May's deal.
If the UK remains with the EU then Brexit is a non issue. I don't understand the politics behind EU members not enforcing maritime searches thereby flooding Ireland with contraband from eastern Europe. Is that an inflated, gloomy threat from the EU?
Would there still be a need for a hard border if EU continued their current standard of enforcement?
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please." - Mark Twain
Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5088
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jan 2019 at 00:52
Quote Would there still be a need for a hard border if EU continued their current standard of enforcement?

There are two very different forces at play here.

Members of the EU have an open borders policy (which has seen the strengthening of Eastern European organised crime, e.g. people trafficking and drugs), the Irish Republic currently has a soft border with Northern Ireland. I'm not sure what agreement the EU has in place for borders between member states and non-member states.

On the other hand is the movement for unification of the Irish 32 counties-maintenance of a soft border would make unification just a little smoother.

As for EU enforcement of border control, I think that's one of the aspects that has led to BREXIT, as well as the centralisation of control in Brussels.  
It's not that I was born in Ireland,
It's the Ireland that was born in me.
Back to Top
Vanuatu View Drop Down
Arch Duke
Arch Duke
Avatar

Joined: 23 Feb 2015
Location: New England
Status: Offline
Points: 1760
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jan 2019 at 05:15
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Quote Would there still be a need for a hard border if EU continued their current standard of enforcement?

There are two very different forces at play here.

Members of the EU have an open borders policy (which has seen the strengthening of Eastern European organised crime, e.g. people trafficking and drugs), the Irish Republic currently has a soft border with Northern Ireland. I'm not sure what agreement the EU has in place for borders between member states and non-member states.
The member states typically have agreements,non member border states like Norway or Sweden agree to some but not all EU regulations
 Big problem is smuggling right? 
British organised crime is moving loot from Spain. The question of whether EU members will stop  smugglers depending on Brexit, sounds invented
Which EU members DO NOT want to collect customs duties?

Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

As for EU enforcement of border control, I think that's one of the aspects that has led to BREXIT, as well as the centralisation of control in Brussels.  
Yes but how does the EU have any hold on UK? If May took backstop out of the deal how likely is Ireland to build hard border stops? 

Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please." - Mark Twain
Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5088
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jan 2019 at 06:06
Quote Yes but how does the EU have any hold on UK? If May took backstop out of the deal how likely is Ireland to build hard border stops?

As long as the UK is a member of the EU, it has to conform to certain protocols and agreements.

As for the hard border question, I don't think that the Irish Republic would want a hard border. The Republic regards all Irish people as Irish, and still has unification on it's agenda. A hard border would mitigate against that. Whether the UK would want it, I don't know.

AFAIK, the current border is an open border, with people able to flow both ways as they wish.
It's not that I was born in Ireland,
It's the Ireland that was born in me.
Back to Top
Vanuatu View Drop Down
Arch Duke
Arch Duke
Avatar

Joined: 23 Feb 2015
Location: New England
Status: Offline
Points: 1760
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jan 2019 at 21:18
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Quote Yes but how does the EU have any hold on UK? If May took backstop out of the deal how likely is Ireland to build hard border stops?

As long as the UK is a member of the EU, it has to conform to certain protocols and agreements.

As for the hard border question, I don't think that the Irish Republic would want a hard border. The Republic regards all Irish people as Irish, and still has unification on it's agenda. A hard border would mitigate against that. Whether the UK would want it, I don't know.

AFAIK, the current border is an open border, with people able to flow both ways as they wish.
That's exactly what I seem to be reading and what everyday people are saying.

So WHY is this backstop essentially the "meat" in the deal? 
The "meat" used by Chukka Umunna?
(LOL congrats on the UK Obama :)

The main groups opposed to a hard Brexit are joining forces under the leadership of Chuka Umunna to push for the public’s voice to be heard on Theresa May’s final deal to leave the EU.The Labour MP, who has shifted his own position on the issue, said he had previously explained why he voted for article 50 in parliament, but that it had now become clear that the UK would not get the benefits of Brexit leave campaigners promised in 2016.




Edited by Vanuatu - 08 Jan 2019 at 21:18
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please." - Mark Twain
Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5088
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jan 2019 at 23:46
Originally posted by Vanuatu Vanuatu wrote:

Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Quote Yes but how does the EU have any hold on UK? If May took backstop out of the deal how likely is Ireland to build hard border stops?

As long as the UK is a member of the EU, it has to conform to certain protocols and agreements.

As for the hard border question, I don't think that the Irish Republic would want a hard border. The Republic regards all Irish people as Irish, and still has unification on it's agenda. A hard border would mitigate against that. Whether the UK would want it, I don't know.

AFAIK, the current border is an open border, with people able to flow both ways as they wish.
That's exactly what I seem to be reading and what everyday people are saying.

So WHY is this backstop essentially the "meat" in the deal? 
The "meat" used by Chukka Umunna?
(LOL congrats on the UK Obama :)

The main groups opposed to a hard Brexit are joining forces under the leadership of Chuka Umunna to push for the public’s voice to be heard on Theresa May’s final deal to leave the EU.The Labour MP, who has shifted his own position on the issue, said he had previously explained why he voted for article 50 in parliament, but that it had now become clear that the UK would not get the benefits of Brexit leave campaigners promised in 2016.


Personally, I think it's just a watery excuse. If the UK exits the EU the supposition is that the Republic of Ireland will impose a hard border between itself and Northern Ireland. I don't think that's the case.

I know that there's been a lot of water under the bridge over BREXIT, but I think that Theresa May's got herself into a position where, to extricate herself (to a certain degree anyway) the only way forward is for a second referendum.



To answer your question more clearly-see https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-19/explainer-brexit-and-the-irish-border-issue/10393818


Edited by toyomotor - 09 Jan 2019 at 00:00
It's not that I was born in Ireland,
It's the Ireland that was born in me.
Back to Top
franciscosan View Drop Down
Tsar
Tsar


Joined: 09 Feb 2015
Location: Littleton CO
Status: Offline
Points: 3383
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2019 at 19:21
The Republic considering all Irish people Irish.
What is the difference between that and the Russian position on Russians in Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Georgia, etc, etc?  All those places know the Russians well, and don't want to be in their co-prosperity sphere.
Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5088
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jan 2019 at 01:12
The main reason, I think would be the rationale behind such thoughts.

The Irish have never surrendered and have always regarded the island as one country, regardless of the fact that six counties come under British rule.

Russia's attitude is one based on power and control, probably with a view to snapping up those countries, again, which were part of the Soviet Union, or even before that, the Russian Federation. That the world sat by and watched the annexation of the Crimea is an international disgrace.
It's not that I was born in Ireland,
It's the Ireland that was born in me.
Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5088
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2019 at 00:00
One point about BREXIT that I can't quire follow is that the UK wants out, but with conditions.

I don't see the EU wearing that. You can't have a football team play half a season, then quite but want all of their entitlements for a full season.

If BREXIT eventuates, and it's far from certain that it will, I suggest it will be a no deal separation.

In any event, I think that Theresa May is toast!
It's not that I was born in Ireland,
It's the Ireland that was born in me.
Back to Top
Vanuatu View Drop Down
Arch Duke
Arch Duke
Avatar

Joined: 23 Feb 2015
Location: New England
Status: Offline
Points: 1760
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2019 at 04:13
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

One point about BREXIT that I can't quite follow is that the UK wants out, but with conditions.

I don't see the EU wearing that. You can't have a football team play half a season, then quit but want all of their entitlements for a full season.

If BREXIT eventuates, and it's far from certain that it will, I suggest it will be a no deal separation.

In any event, I think that Theresa May is toast!
Agree, agree. Too bad I kind of liked her.


Edited by toyomotor - 12 Jan 2019 at 23:23
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please." - Mark Twain
Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5088
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jan 2019 at 08:05
The day of reckoning for Theresa May draws nearer. A parliamentary vote against her BREXIT plan will result in a vote of No Confidence which could see the current government OUT!

Talk is growing stronger that a successful BREXIT will result in Northern Ireland and Scotland leaving the United Kingdom altogether, and it's no idle threat.

The whole BREXIT issue arose because the British were far from happy with loss of control over their borders, and rules issued by Brussels, HQ of the EU in relation to Customs and other matters were seen to be grossly unfair. (That should have all been carefully considered before joining the EU.)

Which ever way the vote goes, Britain is in for a tumultuous time.
It's not that I was born in Ireland,
It's the Ireland that was born in me.
Back to Top
Vanuatu View Drop Down
Arch Duke
Arch Duke
Avatar

Joined: 23 Feb 2015
Location: New England
Status: Offline
Points: 1760
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 14:37
Do you remember May ever being FOR Brexit ? Seems to me that she was on the stay in EU camp. 
Read the press and you might believe that May was as good as gone or was the backstop there for the purpose of illustrating how impossible Brexit will be? 
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please." - Mark Twain
Back to Top
franciscosan View Drop Down
Tsar
Tsar


Joined: 09 Feb 2015
Location: Littleton CO
Status: Offline
Points: 3383
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 17:03
I am not sure it does any good to select a new captain on a sinking ship.  It is not in the EU's best interest to make Britain's leaving painless.

I have heard that David Cameron, thinking that the referendum was a foregone conclusion, neglected in setting it up, failed in using a voting strategy.
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Forum Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 11.10
Copyright ©2001-2017 Web Wiz Ltd.

This page was generated in 0.094 seconds.