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China & US versus North Korea

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    Posted: 19 Mar 2017 at 12:39
Apparently the Chinese Foreign Minister has described the existing attitude between the USA and North Korea as two speeding trains, headed towards each other on the same track.

He could well be right. The imposition of restrictions on North Korea by the USA and the United Nations have not changed Kim Jong Uns aggressive attitudes. He continues to develop nuclear weapons, and to fire test rockets towards Japan. On the other hand, the likelihood of the USA trying to stop the nuclear profileration by offering sweeteners to North Korea are not highly likely to reap results. Korea wants nothing less that the complete withdrawal of US troops and armaments from South Korea, and the lifting of embargoes.

It aint gonna happen.

One solution being discussed is that China and the USA, who are not on particularly friendly terms, in no small part due to Trumps sniping at the Chinese, could combine to take proactive military action against North Korea. Japan and other neighbouring countries would be likely to join in, as could Australia and the UK. Victory could/would see the reunification of Korea.

That only leaves the question of Russia, known to be supplying North Korea with rockets and probably nuclear technology. Would Russia side with North Korea against China and the USA?

Would China and the US, as a combined force, be willing to take on Russia and complete the job by taking back the Crimea?

You can catch more ants with honey than with vinegar, but sometimes a little vinegar is necessary.




Edited by toyomotor - 19 Mar 2017 at 12:41
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2017 at 04:49
Vinegar may be necessary. Things are changing fast your post is not a month old and now, as of today China has turned away No Korean coal.
How long is the world going to cower to the lunatic NorKo? China is about to cut loose the despot.

Just an aside- BBC did a story (2015) about a kid in a North Korean work camp who heard about world cuisine from a well traveled co-prisoner. The boy actually escaped the work camp that he spent his life in, so he could try some of the food that he heard about. Since he was born in the camp his ability to disappear was better than most and he admits to using the man who talked to him about fine dining in order to escape. He is living in UK now.

Decent food was enough to make this fully indoctrinated communist leave and turn his back on all of North Korea. How much would it take for the rest of those prisoners to just turn their backs on NK? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2017 at 07:23
Vanuatu

I'd think that, particularly in the case of the North Koreans arbitrarily seperated from their family in South Korea, there would be a flood across the border, if they could.

One of the problems with the question is that the majority of the North Korean population have been so rigidly indoctrinated all of their lives by a succession of lunatics, that they don't realise what awaits them in the free world.

They are driven by that indoctrination and by the terror of being executed if they so much as mentioned excaping to the free world.

Ignorance, in this case, is not bliss!

If China has stepped back from it's relationship with North Korea, that is a good thing. Perhaps a coalition could form with the intention of disappearing Kim Jong Un.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2017 at 00:06
Where do you think refugees would go if there was war on the Korean Peninsula?  Not through the mine fields of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), they would go into China.  China might not be 100% happy with North Korea, but North Korea is a buffer for the Chinese, a client state.  Maybe not much of a client state, but a client state nonetheless.  That is what protects North Korea the most, that it is in the shadow of China, the Middle Kingdom.  MacArthur figured that out when he sent troops to the Yalu River.  And I imagine that there are some Chinese leaders that don't mind having the Japanese squirm every time North Korea sets off a missile test.  Why would they after what Japan did in WWII? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2017 at 02:15
Originally posted by franciscosan franciscosan wrote:

Where do you think refugees would go if there was war on the Korean Peninsula?  Not through the mine fields of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), they would go into China.  China might not be 100% happy with North Korea, but North Korea is a buffer for the Chinese, a client state.  Maybe not much of a client state, but a client state nonetheless.  That is what protects North Korea the most, that it is in the shadow of China, the Middle Kingdom.  MacArthur figured that out when he sent troops to the Yalu River.  And I imagine that there are some Chinese leaders that don't mind having the Japanese squirm every time North Korea sets off a missile test.  Why would they after what Japan did in WWII? 

Yes China would probably be the first choice, but there are other choices too.

I also agree that China may not be too impressed with the thought of thousands of refugees at their borders, but, in order to provide some stability for the region, who knows?

On the other hand, being as indoctrinated as they are, the North Korean people could also elect to remain and help prop up their (mal)administration.

The other possibility, of course, that should an armed conflict ensue, South Korea and the USA may have the option of forcing open the highway/s between North and South Korea to encourage the flow of refugees.

As for Japan, I don't really think that China is too concerned with Japan, per se, as it has only limited  Armed Services, this is where, again, the USA would be a deterrent against any Chinese led incursion of any kind. Where Putin seems to be girding his loins for war against the USA, it appears to me that China is playing the role of elder statesman.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Apr 2017 at 03:24
Part of North Korea's mythology is the return to war against the US. Prisoners in work camps are told that they will be killed immediately upon resumption of war with the US. The death of 10% of the population is an acceptable demonstration of their commitment to the 'crazy fat kid.' Kim Jung Un was selected by his father to be the next leader because he showed such commitment to national suicide if necessary to take the whole world with them.

If North Korea gets ICBM that can reach mainland USA, military specialists believe Iran will soon have the same capability. Iran has to be factored in along with Russian aggression.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Apr 2017 at 07:02
Originally posted by Vanuatu Vanuatu wrote:

Part of North Korea's mythology is the return to war against the US. Prisoners in work camps are told that they will be killed immediately upon resumption of war with the US. The death of 10% of the population is an acceptable demonstration of their commitment to the 'crazy fat kid.' Kim Jung Un was selected by his father to be the next leader because he showed such commitment to national suicide if necessary to take the whole world with them.

If North Korea gets ICBM that can reach mainland USA, military specialists believe Iran will soon have the same capability. Iran has to be factored in along with Russian aggression.

I agree.

A pre-emptive strike on North Korea by the USA could see some other rogue nations jump on the band wagon, with a hope of victory over the US.

Over the years, I've said repeatedly, that the UN needs to become more involved, and in this case, NATO too. I think it could eventuate in a multi-national conflict, with the rogue nations, in which group I include Russia, taking advantage of the situation to settle some of their own old scores-the Baltic States and the Crimea, for example.

I don't see China being involved against the US led effort, I think China will continue to play the role of Elder Statesman, calling for diplomacy.

If North Korea and/or Iran develop the capability to directly attack the USA, they would also be in a position to attack anywhere in the northern hemisphere, and that would be unacceptable to the US and other western powers.




Edited by toyomotor - 17 Apr 2017 at 02:02
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Apr 2017 at 00:19
China has a sphere of influence,
North Korea is in it.
Taiwan, kind of,
Mongolia,
Tibet,
Burma,
to some extent Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia was.

China does not have any concern about human rights, within its borders, or within its sphere of influence.  So the idea that China would allow excursions from the rest of the world, into its sphere of influence, (which is a buffer zone), for human rights sake, is misguided.  I don't see any of this US _and_ China going against North Korea, and given that both Russia and China have vetoes on the Security Council means that the UN won't do anything militarily.  I don't see Europe (NATO) as being quick to piss off China or Russia either.  Until North Korea actually nukes something, I don't see intervention as happening.  North Korea is nothing if not dug in and spread out, and totally militarized.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Apr 2017 at 02:41
Originally posted by franciscosan franciscosan wrote:

China has a sphere of influence,
North Korea is in it.
Taiwan, kind of,
Mongolia,
Tibet,
Burma,
to some extent Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia was.

China does not have any concern about human rights, within its borders, or within its sphere of influence.  So the idea that China would allow excursions from the rest of the world, into its sphere of influence, (which is a buffer zone), for human rights sake, is misguided.  I don't see any of this US _and_ China going against North Korea, and given that both Russia and China have vetoes on the Security Council means that the UN won't do anything militarily.  I don't see Europe (NATO) as being quick to piss off China or Russia either.  Until North Korea actually nukes something, I don't see intervention as happening.  North Korea is nothing if not dug in and spread out, and totally militarized.  

China abstained from the April 12th Security Council vote to draft a resolution condemning the use of chemical weapons in Syria (April4th). It is not insignificant that China abstains instead of voting with Russia.

Is this deliberate misinformation on your part Mr. Franciscosan? Tired of saying fake news. I don't envisage a human rights objective in the Chinese playbook. I'm sure they would see US incinerated if they weren't trying to make progress with their own long term plans. Economically they are not prepared to shun the US.

What about the flubbed launch on NorKo Christmas?

Do you think missile could have been sabotaged?

Soviets used fake missiles during their cold war pageantry. Watching the goose-steppers it was easy to imagine their missiles blowing away, an actual concern of Leonid Brezhnev's -soviet premier 1964-1982. 





Edited by Vanuatu - 23 Apr 2017 at 05:44
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Apr 2017 at 15:16
Vice President Mike Pence, in Australia yesterday said that all options in relation to North Korea were on the table.

That comment leaves little to the imagintion, anything from an assassination by a Seal Team or Delta Force, to a missile strike, to all out war.

China is still pressing for a diplomatic resolution, but that seems to be as far away as ever, while military interventionlooms ever larger as an option.

One thing appears to be certain, President Trump is prepared to take on Kim Jon Ung unless he stops his maniacal threats and stops firing rockets in the direction of Japan. a nuclear armed North Korea is not an option.

I think China would be unlikely to act against the US if it attacked North Korea, but Russia is another story. It's far from clear what action Russia might take in such circumstances.

Is it time for Russia also to be put back in it's place?




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Apr 2017 at 22:42
China has a concern for "human rights," they have a different "definition," and what 'we' call human rights is low on the scale of priorities.  During the cold war, the US would talk about civil rights and political rights and the Soviet Union would talk about economic rights (and the UN would talk about 'human rights' saying that everybody has a 'right to music.'  For the Soviet Union (and probably Russia today), freedom of assembly doesn't really matter much, when you don't have a job (which is part of why they like Vladimir Putin).  I suspect that China partially has that kind of view.  Also I imagine that they think that people emphasizing human rights are often trouble makers, or idealistic dreamers.

Noam Chomsky would complaint that Israel would do something, and would be condemned by the entire UN, except for the US who would veto the condemnation in the Security Council.  This would be in his opinion, a violation of the democratic representation of nations.  Of course, you could say that a lot of people would vote for the condemnation, knowing that it wouldn't go through, because the US would veto it.  Or they could of course vote _against_ the vote, and piss off the 20+ Muslim nations, that are generally cranky about anything that Israel did.  In other words, why should China be on the "wrong" side of the world vote on Syria, knowing that Russia was going to veto it anyway.  It is not a matter of their great love of human rights, it is more a matter of not uselessly angering others on the world stage, when it doesn't get yet anything.  Or, to put it another way, I would bet that if Syria was a major exporter of oil to the Chinese economy (like Iran is) they might have voted against the condemnation instead of abstaining.

It is not a question necessarily of whether China or Russia would go to war on behalf of North Korea, it is more a question of 1) what would they do in response (they would do something)?  2) what is the possibility of events spiraling out of control?  Think of it, as the equilibrium is broken, and the situation degrades.

Mike Pence is talking tough, but America has gone to war and it has been either minor, or we didn't finish what we started, basically because we were concerned about pissing off the Chinese too much (Korea and Vietnam), so if Donald Trump thinks that the situation is different now, he can start a war, but the fact is, he is not going to be fighting it, and he probably won't be around for its finish.  Does "opening a can of worms," sound familiar?

China has the world's biggest military, US has the second, India third, North Korea fourth, Russia fifth.
US has a two front doctrine, in other words, we want to be able to fight a two front war.  So we wouldn't want to commit our entire military.  On the other hand, _if_ there was war with North Korea, we would be fighting on their (mountainous) territory against their full military of crazies.  We would have to be careful about not going over into China, or Russia.  And realistically speaking we would not want to use nukes (fallout), I don't know about the wind, but any direction fall out would be unacceptable, China, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan surround North Korea.  We probably have little assurance that if we hit their silos in a first strike, that we would be guaranteed to take them out.  There are no "good" (overt) actions, although there may be better ones or worse ones.

  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 04:28
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Vice President Mike Pence, in Australia yesterday said that all options in relation to North Korea were on the table.

That comment leaves little to the imagintion, anything from an assassination by a Seal Team or Delta Force, to a missile strike, to all out war.

China is still pressing for a diplomatic resolution, but that seems to be as far away as ever, while military interventionlooms ever larger as an option.

One thing appears to be certain, President Trump is prepared to take on Kim Jon Ung unless he stops his maniacal threats and stops firing rockets in the direction of Japan. a nuclear armed North Korea is not an option.

I think China would be unlikely to act against the US if it attacked North Korea, but Russia is another story. It's far from clear what action Russia might take in such circumstances.

Is it time for Russia also to be put back in it's place?




We know China does not want NoKo refugees, unless they channel even more of them into slavery/sex trade. That would create problems for Trump as it's become one of his objectives to stem the tide of human slavery. 

If Trump continues to talk about the slave trade without mentioning China, he is risking credibility and certainly Russia and US have their own shameful presence in such activities. 

I don't expect this administration to wag a finger at Putin but Trump has been "telling it like it is" and he should continue to do so. 
In my view I do expect China to act as the dominant overseer of the region, in fact I suspect they will shoot their own dog before US has to use military force.


Edited by Vanuatu - Yesterday at 04:30
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 07:28
Vanuatu wrote
Quote   I suspect they will shoot their own dog before US has to use military force

I agree, daily media reports seem to indicate that China, NoKo's best friend, is running very short of patience, and rather than have US forces on it's border, would to the job themselves.

Whether or not Russia would stick it's nose in against China, IMHO, is doubtful.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 hours 7 minutes ago at 23:51
Nations don't have friends, they have interests.

It is a saying in international relations.

Toyomotor, you seem to be thinking that the only options for China, Russia, and anyone else for that matter are overt.  Reaction doesn't have to overt or military to complicate things.  Russia, in general, is interested in destabilizing the West.  Witness the American and now the French election.  It is not that Russia (or China) would be "on North Korea's side," it is that you can be sure that they will try to take advantage of any situation with the goal of disrupting the status quo [of American superpower] through fear means or foul, and improving their relative position.

The Korean peninsula is very tight quarters, and in a fight in tight quarters, there is more chance of hitting someone you didn't mean to hit.  The problem is how to use just the force that is necessary, and nothing more.  The problem is whether people in the heat of the moment will miscalculate, misjudge and things spill over.  Russia and China are not going to ignore it if a cloud of fallout comes over the border.  Nor are they going to be sympathetic if shot-up bombers stray into the airspace, or one of our fighters shoots down one of theirs.  They won't like US being in their neighborhood, under any conditions.  How would we like it if someone invaded Mexico or Canada?  Maybe China will handle it, but they haven't done it so far, and they're on their third generations of Kims.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 hours 5 minutes ago at 02:53
Right because the US could never be smart enough to destabilize the alliance between NoKo and China. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 hours 47 minutes ago at 03:11
Vanuatu wrote
Quote  How would we like it if someone invaded Mexico ?

I don't think you really meant that, did you?

If some country invaded Mexico and cleaned up the crime and corruption, the US would be overjoyed-providing it wasn't a communist country. Perhaps the US could pursuade one of it's alies to invade. Obviously the US would assist.

But, of course, I'm joking.

If Mexico suddenly adopted a communist stance, I think it probable that the US would be watching very carefully to ensure that no weapons threat to the US emerged. Cuba Mark II.

As for China and NoKo, I'm not sure. China has been very patient, but it can't be expected to sit still forever while The Fat Kid threatens global conflict.


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