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China & US versus North Korea

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    Posted: 19 Mar 2017 at 12:39
Apparently the Chinese Foreign Minister has described the existing attitude between the USA and North Korea as two speeding trains, headed towards each other on the same track.

He could well be right. The imposition of restrictions on North Korea by the USA and the United Nations have not changed Kim Jong Uns aggressive attitudes. He continues to develop nuclear weapons, and to fire test rockets towards Japan. On the other hand, the likelihood of the USA trying to stop the nuclear profileration by offering sweeteners to North Korea are not highly likely to reap results. Korea wants nothing less that the complete withdrawal of US troops and armaments from South Korea, and the lifting of embargoes.

It aint gonna happen.

One solution being discussed is that China and the USA, who are not on particularly friendly terms, in no small part due to Trumps sniping at the Chinese, could combine to take proactive military action against North Korea. Japan and other neighbouring countries would be likely to join in, as could Australia and the UK. Victory could/would see the reunification of Korea.

That only leaves the question of Russia, known to be supplying North Korea with rockets and probably nuclear technology. Would Russia side with North Korea against China and the USA?

Would China and the US, as a combined force, be willing to take on Russia and complete the job by taking back the Crimea?

You can catch more ants with honey than with vinegar, but sometimes a little vinegar is necessary.




Edited by toyomotor - 19 Mar 2017 at 12:41
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2017 at 04:49
Vinegar may be necessary. Things are changing fast your post is not a month old and now, as of today China has turned away No Korean coal.
How long is the world going to cower to the lunatic NorKo? China is about to cut loose the despot.

Just an aside- BBC did a story (2015) about a kid in a North Korean work camp who heard about world cuisine from a well traveled co-prisoner. The boy actually escaped the work camp that he spent his life in, so he could try some of the food that he heard about. Since he was born in the camp his ability to disappear was better than most and he admits to using the man who talked to him about fine dining in order to escape. He is living in UK now.

Decent food was enough to make this fully indoctrinated communist leave and turn his back on all of North Korea. How much would it take for the rest of those prisoners to just turn their backs on NK? 
The root of all desires is the one desire: to come home, to be at peace. -Jean Klein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2017 at 07:23
Vanuatu

I'd think that, particularly in the case of the North Koreans arbitrarily seperated from their family in South Korea, there would be a flood across the border, if they could.

One of the problems with the question is that the majority of the North Korean population have been so rigidly indoctrinated all of their lives by a succession of lunatics, that they don't realise what awaits them in the free world.

They are driven by that indoctrination and by the terror of being executed if they so much as mentioned excaping to the free world.

Ignorance, in this case, is not bliss!

If China has stepped back from it's relationship with North Korea, that is a good thing. Perhaps a coalition could form with the intention of disappearing Kim Jong Un.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2017 at 00:06
Where do you think refugees would go if there was war on the Korean Peninsula?  Not through the mine fields of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), they would go into China.  China might not be 100% happy with North Korea, but North Korea is a buffer for the Chinese, a client state.  Maybe not much of a client state, but a client state nonetheless.  That is what protects North Korea the most, that it is in the shadow of China, the Middle Kingdom.  MacArthur figured that out when he sent troops to the Yalu River.  And I imagine that there are some Chinese leaders that don't mind having the Japanese squirm every time North Korea sets off a missile test.  Why would they after what Japan did in WWII? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2017 at 02:15
Originally posted by franciscosan franciscosan wrote:

Where do you think refugees would go if there was war on the Korean Peninsula?  Not through the mine fields of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), they would go into China.  China might not be 100% happy with North Korea, but North Korea is a buffer for the Chinese, a client state.  Maybe not much of a client state, but a client state nonetheless.  That is what protects North Korea the most, that it is in the shadow of China, the Middle Kingdom.  MacArthur figured that out when he sent troops to the Yalu River.  And I imagine that there are some Chinese leaders that don't mind having the Japanese squirm every time North Korea sets off a missile test.  Why would they after what Japan did in WWII? 

Yes China would probably be the first choice, but there are other choices too.

I also agree that China may not be too impressed with the thought of thousands of refugees at their borders, but, in order to provide some stability for the region, who knows?

On the other hand, being as indoctrinated as they are, the North Korean people could also elect to remain and help prop up their (mal)administration.

The other possibility, of course, that should an armed conflict ensue, South Korea and the USA may have the option of forcing open the highway/s between North and South Korea to encourage the flow of refugees.

As for Japan, I don't really think that China is too concerned with Japan, per se, as it has only limited  Armed Services, this is where, again, the USA would be a deterrent against any Chinese led incursion of any kind. Where Putin seems to be girding his loins for war against the USA, it appears to me that China is playing the role of elder statesman.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Apr 2017 at 03:24
Part of North Korea's mythology is the return to war against the US. Prisoners in work camps are told that they will be killed immediately upon resumption of war with the US. The death of 10% of the population is an acceptable demonstration of their commitment to the 'crazy fat kid.' Kim Jung Un was selected by his father to be the next leader because he showed such commitment to national suicide if necessary to take the whole world with them.

If North Korea gets ICBM that can reach mainland USA, military specialists believe Iran will soon have the same capability. Iran has to be factored in along with Russian aggression.
The root of all desires is the one desire: to come home, to be at peace. -Jean Klein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Apr 2017 at 07:02
Originally posted by Vanuatu Vanuatu wrote:

Part of North Korea's mythology is the return to war against the US. Prisoners in work camps are told that they will be killed immediately upon resumption of war with the US. The death of 10% of the population is an acceptable demonstration of their commitment to the 'crazy fat kid.' Kim Jung Un was selected by his father to be the next leader because he showed such commitment to national suicide if necessary to take the whole world with them.

If North Korea gets ICBM that can reach mainland USA, military specialists believe Iran will soon have the same capability. Iran has to be factored in along with Russian aggression.

I agree.

A pre-emptive strike on North Korea by the USA could see some other rogue nations jump on the band wagon, with a hope of victory over the US.

Over the years, I've said repeatedly, that the UN needs to become more involved, and in this case, NATO too. I think it could eventuate in a multi-national conflict, with the rogue nations, in which group I include Russia, taking advantage of the situation to settle some of their own old scores-the Baltic States and the Crimea, for example.

I don't see China being involved against the US led effort, I think China will continue to play the role of Elder Statesman, calling for diplomacy.

If North Korea and/or Iran develop the capability to directly attack the USA, they would also be in a position to attack anywhere in the northern hemisphere, and that would be unacceptable to the US and other western powers.




Edited by toyomotor - 17 Apr 2017 at 02:02
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 hours 31 minutes ago at 00:19
China has a sphere of influence,
North Korea is in it.
Taiwan, kind of,
Mongolia,
Tibet,
Burma,
to some extent Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia was.

China does not have any concern about human rights, within its borders, or within its sphere of influence.  So the idea that China would allow excursions from the rest of the world, into its sphere of influence, (which is a buffer zone), for human rights sake, is misguided.  I don't see any of this US _and_ China going against North Korea, and given that both Russia and China have vetoes on the Security Council means that the UN won't do anything militarily.  I don't see Europe (NATO) as being quick to piss off China or Russia either.  Until North Korea actually nukes something, I don't see intervention as happening.  North Korea is nothing if not dug in and spread out, and totally militarized.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 hours 9 minutes ago at 02:41
Originally posted by franciscosan franciscosan wrote:

China has a sphere of influence,
North Korea is in it.
Taiwan, kind of,
Mongolia,
Tibet,
Burma,
to some extent Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia was.

China does not have any concern about human rights, within its borders, or within its sphere of influence.  So the idea that China would allow excursions from the rest of the world, into its sphere of influence, (which is a buffer zone), for human rights sake, is misguided.  I don't see any of this US _and_ China going against North Korea, and given that both Russia and China have vetoes on the Security Council means that the UN won't do anything militarily.  I don't see Europe (NATO) as being quick to piss off China or Russia either.  Until North Korea actually nukes something, I don't see intervention as happening.  North Korea is nothing if not dug in and spread out, and totally militarized.  

China abstained from the April 12th Security Council vote to draft a resolution condemning the use of chemical weapons in Syria (April4th). It is not insignificant that China abstains instead of voting with Russia.

Is this deliberate misinformation on your part Mr. Franciscosan? Tired of saying fake news. I don't envisage a human rights objective in the Chinese playbook. I'm sure they would see US incinerated if they weren't trying to make progress with their own long term plans. Economically they are not prepared to shun the US.

What about the flubbed launch on NorKo Christmas?

Do you think missile could have been sabotaged?

Soviets used fake missiles during their cold war pageantry. Watching the goose-steppers it was easy to imagine their missiles blowing away, an actual concern of Leonid Brezhnev's -soviet premier 1964-1982. 





Edited by Vanuatu - 9 hours 6 minutes ago at 05:44
The root of all desires is the one desire: to come home, to be at peace. -Jean Klein
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