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China & US versus North Korea

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2017 at 01:52
I think that the President, through stupidity, political strength or pure big boy bullying has the will power to launch an attack on North Korea. But first, imo, he would like an assurance from China and Russia that they would either back him or stay the hell out of it.

If he had that assurance, the gates are open and the Fat Kid should start getting pretty bloody nervous.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2017 at 23:59
Asking China or Russia to either back him or stay out of it, is like asking for a blank check.  You can ask, but you are probably not going to get it.  Whatever missile systems North Korea has, both Russia and China are in range.  If we are so worried about North Korea getting in range and with WMDs, then why would we think that Russia or China would want to provoke North Korea in order solve "our" problems?

It might just be easier to send North Korea every year a shipment of grain, which US farmers overproduce anyways.  Pay them off, if not for our sake but for the sake of South Korea and Japan.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 May 2017 at 01:58
You could be right, but it's bribery, and as history shows, once the price has been paid, often there are more and higher demands.

I agree with what you say about Russia and China, I don't know the answer. It wouldn't be a good idea to attack North Korea, only to create retaliation by one of the others, but somehow, I don't think that would happen.

Both China and Russia, imho, are more than just a little nervous about what the Fat Kid is doing, and if the US put a stop to it, without occupying North Korea, thereby bringing US forces to Chinesse and/or Russian borders, it might just work. I don't know.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 May 2017 at 03:22
But, the devil you know is better than the devil you don't know, or at least so they say....  It might be cheaper to pay them off, than to throw them out.  That doesn't mean that you give them everything and anything, hopefully enough to provide some stability.  If you could just get North Korea to care about their own people.  Instead of the kleptocracy that is connected at the hip to the military.  We like to look at Kim Jong Un as crazy, but the fact is he has to walk a tightrope at home, having to keep the military happy.

I don't know what is best, but I have some trust in the professionals in the state department.  I do not trust President Trump on North Korea (nor much else, but definitely not North Korea), on the other hand, I don't fool myself into thinking I know what is going on.  He has knowledgable people, I hope he knows when and how to listen to them.  I "hope."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 May 2017 at 09:04
I've never claimed to be a "dove", if Trump could get the other big boys on the block to go to the beach for the day, and then beat the crap out of the Fat Kid, it would be a win-win. A win for the NoKo population, a win for the South Koreans, the Japanese, the Chinese, the USA and just about everyone else you could think of.

Quite frankly, Franky, Mr Trump is coming across to me as being both a little unstable, as witnessed by his lies and sacking anyone who disagrees with him, and beligerant, as shown by his comments about both China and Russia. He certainly hasn't displayed any diplomacy.

He could well find himself short of friends if he chose to go to war. He's treated some other country's leaders shamefully, Angela Merkel and Malcolm Turnbull among them.

While I've always supported our troops, and always will, I would not support an Australian government decision to follow Trump into any conflict he may wish to engage in, unless it was shown to be in Australia's best interests, and independent of those of the USA.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AnchoriticSybarite Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2017 at 08:03
Thank you for the Vietnam analogy. It proves my point.

Displaying enormous ineptitude, American leaders tumbled down the path of good intentions one little step at a time. Houdini would have been proud of how we went from a couple of hundred advisors to over half a million men. In the process we proved definitively that you do not hunt fleas with tanks.

If we follow the same course with NK then they WILL win. Whether they use conventional weapons or if they can deploy a nuke either by missile, plane or even in a freighter, even if we win we lose.

America needs to decide one simple question. Can NK be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. Short of allowing US occupation of NK, there is nothing that the N Koreans can do to assure us that they have or will eliminate the program. Given the 25 years of failure by all diplomatic means, we are left with a military option.

If a 10% loss factor is acceptable, then go for 25%. If there is to be a military strike, then it cannot be a measured strike, but a massive one. Suppress the artillery positions within range of Seoul with FAE's and the entire US bomber force. Then quickly seize the sources of NK's nuclear program.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote AnchoriticSybarite Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2017 at 08:16
For over 60 years the USSR and China propped up the NK regime because it suited their purposes in pursuing the Cold War. Todays Russia is a slender revenent of the once powerful USSR and China's economy is so highly tied to US consumption today that they might very well take NK so as to prevent any kind of conflict which could threaten their own interests.

As for paying off the NK in the interest of expediency, is there a sliding scale. X for one nuke; 3X for one nuke + missile system; 100X for 5 nukes + delivery systems; 10000X for 10 nukes + delivery systems; ad infinitum; ad nauseum.

Edited by AnchoriticSybarite - 18 May 2017 at 08:17
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2017 at 09:31
Originally posted by AnchoriticSybarite AnchoriticSybarite wrote:

For over 60 years the USSR and China propped up the NK regime because it suited their purposes in pursuing the Cold War. Todays Russia is a slender revenent of the once powerful USSR and China's economy is so highly tied to US consumption today that they might very well take NK so as to prevent any kind of conflict which could threaten their own interests.

As for paying off the NK in the interest of expediency, is there a sliding scale. X for one nuke; 3X for one nuke + missile system; 100X for 5 nukes + delivery systems; 10000X for 10 nukes + delivery systems; ad infinitum; ad nauseum.

I agree, and for the reasons you've mentioned, I don't think any sort of payoff will be contemplated, except maybe a payload, not a payoff!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 May 2017 at 01:26
Delivery of wheat or rice feeds the people, it does not feed the government, although it might contribute to stability.  Everybody would know where that grain is coming from originally.  It would not feed any North Korean War machine.  It would probably be embarrassing to the regime, which would be another good reason to do it.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 May 2017 at 01:31
I agree, but somehow I think it would still take a lot more than that for the North Korean people/military to revolt. They're far too indoctrinated with the current system. I think they'd be more likely to lash out at South Korea or Japan, or both.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 May 2017 at 02:44
North Korean belligerence is partially Kim Jung Un catering to the only group that really counts, the military.  Ironically, the overt attempt to display strength is a sign of weakness.  North Korea is propped up by the external threat of, well, probably the world.  Part of that is the fact that it was the world, or at least the UN against them.  I wonder if they are a UN member today.

Remember that North Korea has the 4th largest military, but nowhere near the 4th largest in population.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 May 2017 at 12:07
Originally posted by franciscosan franciscosan wrote:

North Korean belligerence is partially Kim Jung Un catering to the only group that really counts, the military.  Ironically, the overt attempt to display strength is a sign of weakness.  North Korea is propped up by the external threat of, well, probably the world.  Part of that is the fact that it was the world, or at least the UN against them.  I wonder if they are a UN member today.

Remember that North Korea has the 4th largest military, but nowhere near the 4th largest in population.

Were the USA to go to war with North Korea, without assistance of allied nations, it would overpower North Korea with it's Air Force and Naval forces.

The USA Battle Fleets with the super carriers in the lead would dominate the North Korean Navy, and the US Nuclear Powered boomers would prove more than a match for the 70 or so submarines operated by North Korea. Or at least that's the way I see it.

I think the only place land forces would come into play would be at the 38th parallel, to prevent more tunneling and invasion by North Korean forces.

Is the US were to make a pre-0emptive strike against the NoKo Missils Bases, I think it would be, basically, game, set and match.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2017 at 03:32
You are right, things are screwed up in North Korea, and we (the US) have the power to do a lot of things, and screw them up more.  So we can kick over the anthill.  But we don't have the power to set something up afterwards that will last and be peaceful.  No, we would have to occupy North Korea and set up a new regime.  Otherwise we cannot be sure that we got all the fissionable material, all the scientists, and all the research, all the VX, all the other WMDs.  At least they are right now all in the same "place."  Introduce chaos, and you won't know what will happen.  Although North Korean artillery, dug into the hills, is in range of Seoul. It would be very easy to send some shells full of Sarin into South Korea's capital city, especially if the North Korean regime is going down.
It is not just a matter of blowing up things, we have to go to sites, some of which we don't know where they are, but we have to confirm their destruction, recover material and paperwork, chase down scientists and military men that may have WMDs.  It is not just a matter of construction, it is a matter of clean up afterwards.  And there is always the possibility that something is buried, figuratively or literally, which will surface as a hazard 20 years from now.
Or we could just kick over the ant hill and hope for the best.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote AnchoriticSybarite Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2017 at 10:36
If food shipments were stopped completely tomorrow, the NK regime could make up the shortfall overnight by simply executing the political prisoners they already hold.

I know of no examples where sanctions have compelled a totalitarian regime to cease its policies. God forbid I should ever say a good word about Obama, BUT when he moved to normalize relations with Cuba all he was doing was to public admit that well over a half century of American policy punishing Cuba with sanctions had produced absolutely no concessions on their part. What was even worse was that sanctions devastated the Cuban people while not inconveniencing their leaders in the slightest.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AnchoriticSybarite Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2017 at 10:46
You are right if we follow the usual path limited military action which leads to more and more and finally after weeks or months full involvement.

The US military has the capacity if they strike first in a massive wave of air and artillery to cripple NK's capacity to respond. With current surveillance techniques (satelites, drones even human resources) I absolutely believe that the NK artillery aimed at Seoul can and would be suppressed until they can be overrun. AND THAT IS ALL THAT THE US MILITARY NEEDS TO DO.

If I could bend Trump's ear, I would tell him to talk to the Chinese AND the Russians and tell them to stay out. At the same time tell SK that the door is open to reunite their country. Without outside intervention, in a NK vs SK conflict I think the south could prevail in weeks, a month a most.

The sweetener for the Chinese would be our guarantee that within 90 days of reunification, the US would withdraw completely ALL US military personnel in the country. And would further guarantee the Korean peninsula to be a nuclear free zone.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2017 at 14:34
Originally posted by AnchoriticSybarite AnchoriticSybarite wrote:

You are right if we follow the usual path limited military action which leads to more and more and finally after weeks or months full involvement.

The US military has the capacity if they strike first in a massive wave of air and artillery to cripple NK's capacity to respond. With current surveillance techniques (satelites, drones even human resources) I absolutely believe that the NK artillery aimed at Seoul can and would be suppressed until they can be overrun. AND THAT IS ALL THAT THE US MILITARY NEEDS TO DO.

If I could bend Trump's ear, I would tell him to talk to the Chinese AND the Russians and tell them to stay out. At the same time tell SK that the door is open to reunite their country. Without outside intervention, in a NK vs SK conflict I think the south could prevail in weeks, a month a most.

The sweetener for the Chinese would be our guarantee that within 90 days of reunification, the US would withdraw completely ALL US military personnel in the country. And would further guarantee the Korean peninsula to be a nuclear free zone.

I agree, but if that were to happen, would China take the opportunity to offer its assistance to their friends the Koreans? There would need to be something in place to prevent that don't you think?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Windemere Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 5 hours 52 minutes ago at 20:24
It might not be as easy as that for the U.S. military to cripple North Korea in a massive wave of air and artillery attacks early on (as was done in the 1991 & 2003 invasions of Iraq). It could likely be done, but would possibly  involve a massive loss of life among American ground troops (much larger than happened in Iraq, and something that the American public and political leadership likely wouldn't be willing to accept). Not to mention the economic cost. The 2003 invasion  and occupation of Iraq led to the economic  Recession in America, which is still going on.

In the aftermath, it could go either way. Possibly South Korea would overwhelm the North, reunite the country, establish a unitary government, and all would be well (as happened when North Vietnam quickly conquered South Vietnam in 1974).  But if North Korea retained sufficient military capacity to fight a defensive war against South Korea, it could develop into a long drawn-out  endless war, or possibly a guerrilla war.

Wars are always unpredictable, in spite of carefully planned out preparations. We never know what will happen, or how they'll turn out.

How China and Russia  would react to an American or South Korean attack on North Korea is also unpredictable.


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