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Chinese Geopolitics

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    Posted: 12 Apr 2014 at 21:02
Is there any Geopolitical theory from China? Any Rimlands, world islands etc having China in the center? Explaining how Chinese would like to project power?
Any book, link would be highly appreciated.
Thank you.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2018 at 07:55
China has spread it's influence in the past few years by claiming the Spratley Islands and other small land areas in the South China Sea. It has increased it's  claims by building military installations on the Spratleys, and using it's navy to prevent incursions into what it claim is their territory, although the International Court of Justice has ruled that China has no legal claims in the area.

The small island chains in the South China Sea are also claimed by up to seven other countries.

China has just launched it's second Aircraft Carrier, and one of the main roles of a carrier is to enforce influence far from home shores, it's almost certain to be used in the South China Sea.

Two months ago three Australian Navy ships were "warned off" while conducting patrols in the area in accordance with accepted rules of maritime navigation. This week, two US ships were similarly warned off.

The time is rapidly approaching when the claimants to the islands, backed by either the UN or allied forces from Australia and the US, rallied to prevent China remaining on the Spratleys. A 1960's style blockade comes immediately to mind.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2018 at 01:45
Surely, the importance of the Spratley's are more than just a few postage stamps of geography?

The Chinese wish to flex their muscle and assert their "rights."  While they may have launched a second carrier, they have a long way to go to meet the US' thirteen(?) supercarriers.  I think France and Britain each have one.  I am not sure if Britain still uses Harriers.  Russia probably has some capability with helicopters.

China is also butting up against the Japanese over some rocks south of Okinawa.  The Chinese are pushing on several fronts so that even if they don't get anything on some fronts, they probably will on others.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2018 at 02:26
You're missing the point. Sure, the US has 13 nuclear powered aircraft carriers, for the very same reason, projection of influence far from home.

I suggest the new carrier launched by China will be used in the South China Sea to project a very visible influence in the area.

Will the US and it's allies confront China over their occupation of the Spratleys and the Paraceles?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2018 at 03:21
I am not questioning that the Spratleys and other sites are important, I am asking _why_ are they important to Australia, to others and to the US.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2018 at 06:29
These islands are in some of the major sea-roads to Asia.

The area claimed by China reaches almost down to Indonesia, and from the Spratleys and Paraceles, China would be able to restrict shipping to Japan, Taiwan Korea etc.

Militarily, China would be in a position to launch missiles against Indonesian and Australian targets, posing a direct threat.

The International Arbitration Court has refuted China's claim to the South China sea, and, IMHO, an international armada should blockade the islands to prevent China's spread.

If you look at one of the many on-line maps of China's claim, you'll see how far south it extends and why we should be concerned.


Edited by toyomotor - 03 Jun 2018 at 09:10
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Panther Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jun 2018 at 15:26
Originally posted by franciscosan franciscosan wrote:

I am not questioning that the Spratleys and other sites are important, I am asking _why_ are they important to Australia, to others and to the US.


For China its the flexing of old hegomonic muscles, plus oil. The spratleys are important to other countries claims due to proximity of said islands to their borders. Plus oil.

For Australia, even though i reckon they dont know it, the stability of the region is in question and thereby their security and their ability to remain aloof and at peace in the region is being compromised by China's actions.

The islands themselves arent that important to the US per se. However, the US has built alliances and fought wars over the centuries for the belief in freedom of the seas and the ability of all nations naval trade to go unmolested. Open sea lanes are important to the global economy and the US. Most recent action in history confirming our naval supremacy and ability to ensure freedom of the seas was the end of world war two.
Were the US to abandon or fail n this, would see the global economy take a hundred steps back to the pre 19th century of tributaries and unfair tolls placed on any country wishing to pass through another countries sea borders. Unfair advantages al around.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2018 at 02:09
Hi Panther, good to hear from you.

Quote For Australia, even though i reckon they don't know it, the stability of the region is in question and thereby their security and their ability to remain aloof and at peace in the region is being compromised by China's actions.

Of course Australia is aware of the ability of China to destabilise the region by annexing the islands.

The Chinese line of demarcation extends to close to Indonesia, in whose territory is one of the worlds shipping "choke points". China knows this, and from the islands will be close enough to shut the choke points if they so decide. 

There have been recent rumours also that China has made moves to establish a naval base in Vanuatu, which is Australia's back yard. Vanuatu has denied this.

Australia, the US and their allies must deny China's domination of the South China Sea for reasons of security as well as trade.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 05:21
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Hi Panther, good to hear from you.

Quote For Australia, even though i reckon they don't know it, the stability of the region is in question and thereby their security and their ability to remain aloof and at peace in the region is being compromised by China's actions.

Of course Australia is aware of the ability of China to destabilise the region by annexing the islands.

The Chinese line of demarcation extends to close to Indonesia, in whose territory is one of the worlds shipping "choke points". China knows this, and from the islands will be close enough to shut the choke points if they so decide. 

There have been recent rumours also that China has made moves to establish a naval base in Vanuatu, which is Australia's back yard. Vanuatu has denied this.

Australia, the US and their allies must deny China's domination of the South China Sea for reasons of security as well as trade.
toyomotor, why hasn't Vanuatu been built up more by AU? They still remember the canned Spam from WW2!


http://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/13/world/asia/vanuatu-china-wharf.html
 

The wharf, Australian officials said, could lead to China seizing strategic property and becoming a more direct military threat, within striking distance of Australia’s east coast.

But in a sign of the growing divide over China’s role, Vanuatu’s leaders are pushing back — sharing for the first time the contract this country signed with China for the wharf, and arguing they are perfectly capable of paying back the loans and making decisions on their own about when to work with China.

“The loan was considered economically viable for such infrastructure as the main gateway for international trade between the northern part of the country and the rest of the world,” said Foreign Minister Ralph Regenvanu of Vanuatu.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 05:38
V

Don't know the answer to your question.

Like many other small islands in our region, Vanuatu is a recipient of our overseas aid.

I can't see Australia ( and the US for that matter) tolerating a Chinese base at Vanuatu, but, having said that, our northern most capital, Darwin, has leased it's waterfront management to a Chinese company
for 99 years. 

Seems like madness to me.

The Australian Federal government, in my mind, is running hat and cold on China. One one hand trying to make more and more trade deals, permitting the sale of Australian infrastructure to Chinese interests, while on the other hand condemning China's incursion into the SoChi Sea, and civil rights.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Jun 2018 at 16:23
Now there is free trade among ten countries in the AESEAN trade agreement including China.
If the China interferes with shipping, doesn't that mean tariffs? Tariffs for AU, New Zealand etc?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Jun 2018 at 03:18
Originally posted by Vanuatu Vanuatu wrote:

Now there is free trade among ten countries in the AESEAN trade agreement including China.
If the China interferes with shipping, doesn't that mean tariffs? Tariffs for AU, New Zealand etc?

I'd say so. If China ever gets to fully control the South China Sea, world trade will definately suffer, and militarily they could get to control all of South East Asia.

Somehow, I don't think the USA will allow China to control the seaways.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2018 at 06:06
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Originally posted by Vanuatu Vanuatu wrote:

Now there is free trade among ten countries in the AESEAN trade agreement including China.
If the China interferes with shipping, doesn't that mean tariffs? Tariffs for AU, New Zealand etc?

I'd say so. If China ever gets to fully control the South China Sea, world trade will definately suffer, and militarily they could get to control all of South East Asia.

Somehow, I don't think the USA will allow China to control the seaways.

ASEAN is meeting on June 27th in Hunan province of China. The subject of trade routes can't be left off the list- Even though the Hague ruled that China had to back off their territorial claims in the Philippines  a couple years ago, President of the Philippines Rodrego Duterte is allowing China to co-exploit gas reserves. Must be similar deals with other countries. And China has some heavy fire power. Expanding with it's "Thousand Talents Program" for the purpose of legal and illegal transfer of US commercial and military technology. It's not news really, the story was reported in 2011.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2018 at 23:26
How many divisions does the Hague have?
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Districts of The Hague

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Wijken denhaag.gif

The city of The HagueNetherlands, consists of eight districts (stadsdelen, singular stadsdeel). Each district is divided into subdistricts (wijken). Each of these stadsdelen has its own office (stadsdeelkantoor), where most of the local government activity is organized. These stadsdeelkantoren make many aspects of local government more accessible to residents. The current division of The Hague into individual stadsdelen was created in 1988 by the main city government. This division of The Hague into wijken and buurten (neighborhoods) deviates from the 1953 divisions that had been known to many residents.




Edited by Vanuatu - 12 Aug 2018 at 15:32
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 11:08
V

I think the question was really about the various divisions in the International Court of Justice,
Quote http://www.icj-cij.org/en/court

The Court’s role is to settle, in accordance with international law, legal disputes submitted to it by States and to give advisory opinions on legal questions referred to it by authorized United Nations organs and specialized agencies.

The Court is composed of 15 judges, who are elected for terms of office of nine years by the United Nations General Assembly and the Security Council. It is assisted by a Registry, its administrative organ. Its official languages are English and French.

I don't claim to know much about the ICJ, but I think there are off-shoots like the War Crimes Tribunal, International Maritime Law and so on. I've tried to find out from Google, but it's not as easy as I thought it would be.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 14:22
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

V

I think the question was really about the various divisions in the International Court of Justice,



I know :)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2018 at 21:23
No, actually, it was how many (army) divisions does the Hague have?

When President Andrew Jackson kicked the Cheyenne of their land in Georgia, the US Supreme Court said that the action was illegal, Jackson (being a jerk of Trump-like proportions) said, "how many divisions does the Supreme Court have?"

In other words, the Hague can say something is illegal, but when it gets right down to it, it does not by itself have the clout to enforce its decisions.

International law depends in a certain degree upon nations cooperating, if the nation is big and powerful enough, it does not have to cooperate.  There may be consequences of this, but the advantages of not cooperating (or the calculated advantages) might outweigh the (calculated) costs.


Edited by franciscosan - 03 Jul 2018 at 21:29
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jul 2018 at 04:35
In this case it not likely just Duterte's lack of will. All the states in the EU stayed neutral. The Hague tribunal was criticized as being almost irresponsible for deliberate antagonism of a huge nation by an island nation. Who expected China to actually yield on a question of sovereignty? 
Vietnam was the only ASEAN country to officially accept the Hague judgement as binding with the Philippines. 


http://https://www.rappler.com/thought-leaders/206508-time-for-different-narrative-philippines-china-maritime-disputeMany have said that international pressure can encourage the implementation of the award – but friendly countries have to take the lead from the Philippines.

In the region, the award benefited not only the Philippines but other Southeast Asian states which have made claims to parts of the South China Sea. It was clear from the ruling, as Reichler explained, that “if China’s nine-dash line is invalid as to the Philippines, it is equally invalid to other states bordering the South China Sea like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, and the rest of the international community.”

Making the tribunal ruling work and seeing it come to fruition, partly or fully, will take a long time, way beyond a single president’s term. It will require strategic thinking anchored on a strong sense of justice, equity, and sovereign rights. – Rappler.com

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 2018 at 04:05
Quote No, actually, it was how many (army) divisions does the Hague have?

"The Hague" is the common name given to the International Law Courts, and as such, Afik, would have no Military Divisions.

But, as I've commented in the past, is there any point in these organisations existing if there's no way of enforcing their rulings?


Edited by toyomotor - 08 Jul 2018 at 04:38
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 2018 at 21:28
I know, toyomotor, "the Supreme Court" is the final court of appeals in the United States, it does not have any Military Divisions either, which was the jackass Jackson's point.  'let them enforce their own decisions.'
But, yes I think there is a point of such organizations existing.  They have a certain moral authority, and stature under international law.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jul 2018 at 16:04
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Quote No, actually, it was how many (army) divisions does the Hague have?

"The Hague" is the common name given to the International Law Courts, and as such, Afik, would have no Military Divisions.

But, as I've commented in the past, is there any point in these organisations existing if there's no way of enforcing their rulings?
The international law is based on multilateral-ism and reciprocity. Countries have treaties with the Hague to enforce mechanisms of compulsion when judgments have to be enforced. No one wanted to enforce this judgement.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Nov 2018 at 05:36
See the OP (Dated 28 May 2018)

As I've suggested in the past, by making large loans to poor countries, China is able to make demands on those countries. This is just another sign of Chinese hegemony, as shown clearly at the APEC summit when China made it's "Belt and Road" proposal known, publicly.

(As an aside, Chinese officials have tried on several occasions to influence the proceedings, and acted with outrage when they were denied. Four Chinese officials stormed a Papua New Guinea governments minister's outer office demanding to see him in order to influence the official report on the conference. Again,outrage was the order of the day when they were refused entry to the Minister.)

Tonga, which has loans from China, and repayment arrangements for which will place great pressure on it's economy, has gained five years grace from the repayments by signing up to the Belt & Road agreement.

In five years time, with the repayment to be paid, just watch China extract some concession from Tonga, like a naval or air base.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Nov 2018 at 05:58
Vanuatu wrote
Quote toyomotor, why hasn't Vanuatu been built up more by AU? 

I'm not sure. 

An article in the Nautilus Institute web page says this
Quote Australia is committed to assisting in Tonga’s long term development. Total Australian Overseas Development Assistance to Tonga in 2008-09 is around $19 million. Of this amount, $13 million is allocated to bilateral programs in scholarships, health, economic and public sector management, reconstruction, and community development. We look forward to a further strengthening of relations with Tonga under a Pacific Partnership for Development, which is expected to be finalised by early 2009. We also welcome Tonga’s participation in the Pacific Seasonal Worker Pilot Scheme.”

Australia has continued to support Tonga in many areas up until current day, not just financially, but also by sending in professionals to assist and advise in many areas. The financial contribution was $AUD27.9 million in 2017-2018, for a population of just over 108,000.

Note that Tonga has no real trade.
Quote From Wikipedia- Tonga's economy is characterized by a large nonmonetary sector and a heavy dependence on remittances from the half of the country's population that lives abroad, chiefly in Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. Much of the monetary sector of the economy is dominated, if not owned, by the royal family and nobles. This is particularly true of the telecommunications and satellite services. Much of small business, particularly retailing on Tongatapu, is now dominated by recent Chinese immigrants who arrived under a cash-for-passports scheme that ended in 1998.

IF Tonga default on their repayments to China, it is likely, based on the experience of African countries which have borrowed financially from China, to be forced to provide concessions as I described earlier. And IF China does try to have military bases of any kind on any of the Tongan islands, you can be sure that the US and Australia, as well as, possibly, New Zealand and the smaller Pacific Island nations will act.

Unfortunately, Australia, which has had no real external military threat since WW2, disposed with it's aircraft carriers and the Fleet Air Arm. At the time the thought seems to be that Australia didn't have to provide a show of influence or power in the region. Foolish thinking!

Don't forget Indonesia, which could well be the sleeping giant in all of this. The largest Muslim populated country in the world, with a very keen interest in the South China sea, would not be happy with the Chinese incarceration of the Uighers, who are Muslims.

We live in interesting times.


Edited by toyomotor - 19 Nov 2018 at 06:03
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