| FORUM | ARCHIVE |                    | TOTAL QUIZ RESULT |


  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Employment in the future digital world
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login


Welcome stranger, click here to read about some of the great benefits of registering for a free account with us and joining us in our global online community.


Employment in the future digital world

 Post Reply Post Reply
Poll Question: Rapid advances in computer automation will lead to:
Poll Choice Votes Poll Statistics
0 [0.00%]
1 [100.00%]
0 [0.00%]
0 [0.00%]
You can not vote in this poll

Author
Captain Vancouver View Drop Down
Immortal Guard
Immortal Guard
Avatar

Joined: 30 Sep 2010
Location: Vancouver Isle
Status: Offline
Points: 2153
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Captain Vancouver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Employment in the future digital world
    Posted: 15 Mar 2014 at 18:35
Ominous (at least for workers much younger than your captain) trends are afoot that suggest  vast advances in digital technology will render huge portions of the near future workforce redundant. And yes, yes I know this sort of thing has happened before in history, and we still need lots of folks in the workforce (although arguably already significantly less than a few decades ag0). But there are indications this time will be different, and a pivotal change is on the horizon. The study quoted suggests on half of the workforce will be displaced within 20 years.

What do you think? Offer some comments.

...The advances, coupled with mobile robots wired with this intelligence, make it likely that occupations employing almost half of today’s U.S. workers, ranging from loan officers to cab drivers and real estate agents, become possible to automate in the next decade or two, according to a study done at the University of Oxford in the U.K....

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/03/14/machines-that-can-learn-could-replace-half-of-american-jobs-in-the-next-decade-or-two-oxford-study/?__lsa=d005-f4e5
Back to Top
Sponsored Links


Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5355
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Mar 2014 at 22:37
Originally posted by Captain Vancouver Captain Vancouver wrote:

Ominous (at least for workers much younger than your captain) trends are afoot that suggest  vast advances in digital technology will render huge portions of the near future workforce redundant. And yes, yes I know this sort of thing has happened before in history, and we still need lots of folks in the workforce (although arguably already significantly less than a few decades ag0). But there are indications this time will be different, and a pivotal change is on the horizon. The study quoted suggests on half of the workforce will be displaced within 20 years.

What do you think? Offer some comments.

...The advances, coupled with mobile robots wired with this intelligence, make it likely that occupations employing almost half of today’s U.S. workers, ranging from loan officers to cab drivers and real estate agents, become possible to automate in the next decade or two, according to a study done at the University of Oxford in the U.K....

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/03/14/machines-that-can-learn-could-replace-half-of-american-jobs-in-the-next-decade-or-two-oxford-study/?__lsa=d005-f4e5
I think that technology will replace humans in almost every piece meal, repetitive job.
 
Many manufacturing industries already employ robotics at the expense of human beings. This could well be extended to things such as road works, logistics and supply, military, secretarial and so on.
 
Banking has become largely automated, and this could be extended to almost every aspect of the finance industry.
 
Automated vehicles, vessels and aircraft are in use in the military, and a few other areas. This could be extended to almost every area of transport.
 
The major problem, as I see it, will be new taxes imposed to replace income tax in some jobs, and what do with the mounting, world wide unemployed.
“The biggest surprise in a man’s life is old age.”
Back to Top
caldrail View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 21 Jan 2014
Location: Rushey Platt
Status: Offline
Points: 1287
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote caldrail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Mar 2014 at 23:21
Hang on though -if you automate a vehicle, that vehicle must still be built, and with increasing complexity and sophistication the range of suppliers increases. Further, the infrastructure to handle automated vehicles (it's unlikely that vehicles would be completely autonomous - there would be a connection mechanism to central controlling facilities in order to coordinate safety) requires that facilities are built and manned.

What this technology will do is change the emphasis in society with regard to industry and service. Older industries will dwindle when not needed, new ones will open to fill the gap - the proviso being your society needs to be on its toes and fill the gap yourselves or a foriegn competitor will sieze the opportunity.
http://www.unrv.com/forum/blog/31-caldrails-blog/
Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5355
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2014 at 10:45
Originally posted by caldrail caldrail wrote:

Hang on though -if you automate a vehicle, that vehicle must still be built, and with increasing complexity and sophistication the range of suppliers increases. Further, the infrastructure to handle automated vehicles (it's unlikely that vehicles would be completely autonomous - there would be a connection mechanism to central controlling facilities in order to coordinate safety) requires that facilities are built and manned.

What this technology will do is change the emphasis in society with regard to industry and service. Older industries will dwindle when not needed, new ones will open to fill the gap - the proviso being your society needs to be on its toes and fill the gap yourselves or a foriegn competitor will sieze the opportunity.
 
But automation of the factories results in job loss. The only jobs left here would be the construction of the robotic machinery, or the machinery to build them.
 
In factories and large store house facilities, there are currently automated moving machines, fork trucks and so on. Input by humans is minimal. Many areas where the work is repetitive or dangerous are now staffed by automated equipment.
 
Safety isn't an issue, unless there is a breakdown somewhere in the technology, and the safety aspect still only refers to goods or the machinery itself. Human controllers are located away from the shop floor so there is no direct interaction between the machines and human beings.
 
Of course there will always be a need for humans in the hospitality industry, robot cooked and delivered food just wouldn't be on the menu for a long time.
 
When I refer to automated transport, I should have clarified what I meant-trains.
 
No road systems in the foreseeable future would be completely automated with commuter vehicles computer controlled, although I understand that the Japanese have started trialling this technology.
“The biggest surprise in a man’s life is old age.”
Back to Top
Captain Vancouver View Drop Down
Immortal Guard
Immortal Guard
Avatar

Joined: 30 Sep 2010
Location: Vancouver Isle
Status: Offline
Points: 2153
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Captain Vancouver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2014 at 11:41
Originally posted by caldrail caldrail wrote:

Hang on though -if you automate a vehicle, that vehicle must still be built, and with increasing complexity and sophistication the range of suppliers increases. Further, the infrastructure to handle automated vehicles (it's unlikely that vehicles would be completely autonomous - there would be a connection mechanism to central controlling facilities in order to coordinate safety) requires that facilities are built and manned.

What this technology will do is change the emphasis in society with regard to industry and service. Older industries will dwindle when not needed, new ones will open to fill the gap - the proviso being your society needs to be on its toes and fill the gap yourselves or a foriegn competitor will sieze the opportunity.

Your argument is the classic one, and one that until very recently has proved out.

However, the point made in this study (and others) is that these truisms will no longer apply. We have gotten used to the idea that as new technologies emerge, they displace some workers, but also create new demands, and hence employment. Not so in the future. The automation of work is not just increasing in a linear fashion, but now accelerating exponentially. There is either the near potentiality, or the current reality, of automation of the great masses of employment. Not just selected factory jobs, but those that provide large scale employment, such as office, transport, and general labour.

Of course, there will still be technical, professional, and some service work. But the numbers required to operate systems like factories or automated trains is starkly less than with a human workforce. Indeed, this is exactly their appeal, as they offer incredible savings.

Automation is accelerating, but little new employment is being created. The relatively small numbers in IT and research can be hugely productive. There will never be a need for tens of thousands of software writers flooding in to the shop ever morning, as was the case with older industries. 

Demand for new services is also relatively slack, partly because we are so saturated today with personal service offerings, and entertainment products that do cartwheels to try and drum up ever more interest and sales. It is also because of a by-product of automation. A few specialists can now be extremely productive and profitable for their companies, and hence demand high wages, will the average middle class worker has become very devalued in recent years. This migration of wealth to the top means a general slack demand in the economy.

We have, in effect, two lines on a chart. The one that represents digital automation is now curving sharply upward. The one that represents those in meaningful employment is dropping downwards. There will have to be  a reckoning of some sort to this.
Back to Top
Captain Vancouver View Drop Down
Immortal Guard
Immortal Guard
Avatar

Joined: 30 Sep 2010
Location: Vancouver Isle
Status: Offline
Points: 2153
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Captain Vancouver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2014 at 11:55
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:


 
When I refer to automated transport, I should have clarified what I meant-trains.
 
No road systems in the foreseeable future would be completely automated with commuter vehicles computer controlled, although I understand that the Japanese have started trialling this technology.

It is often the case that science fiction overtakes us, and becomes science fact, with a speed that makes jaws drop, eyes widen, and young children run screaming.

When Robert Fulton offered the brand new steamship technology to Napoleon during France's epic conflict with Britain, the later famously replied: I fail to see sir, how lighting bonfires within my ships will be of any advantage what so ever! How he must of bit his lip, just a few years later.

The fact is that today, the Google car can navigate any sort of roadway, city or country, and do it vastly safer than human piloted vehicles. How this plays out in practice is unknown as yet, but from a coldly mechanical viewpoint, we are already there: roads could be automated tomorrow, except the psychological and social baggage we carry would probably not allow it- not quite so fast anyway.

From an employment standpoint, this will be vast. Transport is one of the last providers of mass employment, that is, for the millions of semi to low skilled workers in the economy. Combine this loss with the clerical field, and we are well on the way to that 50% unemployment rate predicted in the Oxford study.
Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5355
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2014 at 15:59
Captain:
You have expressed my thoughts so eloquently.
 
The facts are that automation, in all its forms, has reduced the number and types of jobs available for humans.
 
This will increase dramatically into the future, and the socio/economic question to be answered is "What shall we do with the 50%+ unemployed."
 
Their very existence may well rely on welfare payments, derived from the increased taxation imposed on the -50% who are employed.
 
Increased taxation = increased prices=wage demands=increased prices=more taxes.
 
Perhaps the major employer could be the Law Enforcement industry, to control the out of work turning criminal.
 
It's a worry.
“The biggest surprise in a man’s life is old age.”
Back to Top
pinguin View Drop Down
WorldHistoria Master
WorldHistoria Master
Avatar

Joined: 29 Sep 2006
Status: Offline
Points: 15238
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Mar 2014 at 02:04
I hope technology replace chairmen and high rank employees in big business, pretty soon. I prefer there cold robots that work for peanuts. I believe they ask to much for the job they do. If that ever happened, technology will be a blessing.


Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5355
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Mar 2014 at 10:19
Originally posted by pinguin pinguin wrote:

I hope technology replace chairmen and high rank employees in big business, pretty soon. I prefer there cold robots that work for peanuts. I believe they ask to much for the job they do. If that ever happened, technology will be a blessing.

penguin:
 
But as you and I both know, there must be humans somewhere in the chain, and they are the ones making the decisions which can't be automated.
 
I agree with you that most are grossly overpaid, and they are largely responsible for the widening gap between the rich and the poor.
 
 
“The biggest surprise in a man’s life is old age.”
Back to Top
caldrail View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 21 Jan 2014
Location: Rushey Platt
Status: Offline
Points: 1287
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote caldrail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Mar 2014 at 02:00
With regard to comments made in reply to my post, the loss of jobs refers to those in industries rendered obselete, in which case they would vanish anyway because of the commercial competition and declining orders. That's a foregone conclusion. What matters is that you stop regarding the world you know and understand as static. It's the same analogy to the rules of natural selection,. If the enviroment changes, species adapt or die out. So  in other words, employment must change to fit the new economic climate or decline. In one sense that means the loss of jobs - but that only occurs if the species, or in other words, your local workforce, do not retrain and actively seek new opportunities, as well as businesses exploiting the changes to create new roles and jobs. It's pointless moaning about the loss of jobs (or more accurately, the expectation of static working cycles) - they tried that in Britain in the eighties. So I guess the idea is stop expecting the world to owe you a living and learn how to survive in the global economy.


Edited by caldrail - 18 Mar 2014 at 02:01
http://www.unrv.com/forum/blog/31-caldrails-blog/
Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5355
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Mar 2014 at 02:44
" So I guess the idea is stop expecting the world to owe you a living and learn how to survive in the global economy."
 
I couldn't agree more, but the theory behind these posts is that with automation taking over, there would be no realistic prospects of employment for many people.
 
Not everyone is going to fit into the world of quasi science or gain skills that are both needed and for which there are going to be jobs.
 
It's very difficult to view future prospects for many workers in a positive light.
“The biggest surprise in a man’s life is old age.”
Back to Top
caldrail View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 21 Jan 2014
Location: Rushey Platt
Status: Offline
Points: 1287
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote caldrail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Mar 2014 at 21:07
Quote
Not everyone is going to fit into the world of quasi science or gain skills that are both needed and for which there are going to be jobs.
 
And you think something like that hasn't happened before? Employment is as much a jungle as green leaves. If you can't adapt, you die out. Cruel? Yes, it is. But unless you intend to actually do something for those unable to bend with the wind, then it's pointless bleating on about it.
 
http://www.unrv.com/forum/blog/31-caldrails-blog/
Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5355
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Mar 2014 at 22:04
Originally posted by caldrail caldrail wrote:

Quote
Not everyone is going to fit into the world of quasi science or gain skills that are both needed and for which there are going to be jobs.
 
And you think something like that hasn't happened before? Employment is as much a jungle as green leaves. If you can't adapt, you die out. Cruel? Yes, it is. But unless you intend to actually do something for those unable to bend with the wind, then it's pointless bleating on about it.
 
Undoubtedly it has happened before-the Industrial Revolution.
 
But what we're talking about here is the Industrial Revolution to end all Industrial Revolutions.
 
When everything that can be automated, has been, what then of those for whom there is no job, due to intellect, skills, age or infirmity?
 
We're hypothesizing that there will be ~50% unemployment rate. Too many to ignore!
“The biggest surprise in a man’s life is old age.”
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2014 at 01:20
Interesting discussion...  let me bark up a few thoughts...

I have seen the change in jobs, trades and education since the 60'es.
Back in the 60'es you could be an unemployed skilled worker, maybe because your trade had become obsolete because of the development in industries. 
There wasn't much use for a cooper in the 60'es - but 20 years before the trade was flourishing and likewise with many of the old crafts. 150 years ago, saddlers were in great demand.
That is how is always were since the beginning of time - trades and crafts die out, new emerges. 

In the 80's I produced a video for the Danish Ministry of Education about the rise of automation in  our industries in general. The use of robots had begun and it was interesting to see what influence it had on a plant or factory....  
I remember visiting a factory where they made cabs for different makes of tractors. They had taken half a dozen robots in use - welding and handling - and I asked the workshop manager how many workers they had to lay off because of this...  None he said - still the same amount of manpower, their jobs have changed a little and we have increased production with 50%.
So - next question is - could they sell that many.....  maybe a few of the workers became sales agents.

From this trivial story and similar others, we can pick up a few things....
- the world is constantly changing - nothing is static
- be ready to adapt to the changes through in-service training and education
- a workforce fully updated on skills is paramount for a company to face changes

Although we sometimes can see a high unemployment, we should not lose heart.
If we turn the statistic upside down we can see how many who actually has a job - and never before has so many in fact been employed (here in DK)

But the jobs have changed - to the better...
- as the machines takes over the production and provides the income for us, we have more time for each other - better schools for our kids, better health care, better elder-care and so on...

I know some claims its a human right to have a job..  that is so totally overrated and must be something the rich invented for better to control the poor...  
  - who says it's that great to be a slave all your life for a miserable paycheck?  Wink

~ North





Edited by Northman - 20 Mar 2014 at 01:22
Back to Top
pinguin View Drop Down
WorldHistoria Master
WorldHistoria Master
Avatar

Joined: 29 Sep 2006
Status: Offline
Points: 15238
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2014 at 11:35
I think, the right of every human is to own a company (or at least own shares) and that work the robots.


Back to Top
toyomotor View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: 15 Feb 2014
Location: Tasmania, AUST.
Status: Offline
Points: 5355
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2014 at 12:14
Originally posted by pinguin pinguin wrote:

I think, the right of every human is to own a company (or at least own shares) and that work the robots.


Wacko
“The biggest surprise in a man’s life is old age.”
Back to Top
Captain Vancouver View Drop Down
Immortal Guard
Immortal Guard
Avatar

Joined: 30 Sep 2010
Location: Vancouver Isle
Status: Offline
Points: 2153
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Captain Vancouver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2014 at 09:16
I think we are discussing apples and oranges when examining, on the one hand, technological change, and its social impact, and on the other, human attitudes to change in general, and willingness to work hard and improve oneself. Or maybe a better metaphor would be machine tools and software programs.

The latter mentioned attributes are of course admirable, and things all should strive for. Change in the cosmos however comes with absolutely no regard to human attitudes, desires, or behaviors. In the past, change in work and employment has survivable, as new technologies have created new jobs, as well as erasing others. A careful reading of the article presented though makes a good case that this out with the old, in with the new paradigm is now diverging in a most significant fashion. Yes, there will be some new jobs created, but overall these will be vastly outweighed by the loss of others.

There is a danger here is simply projecting forward trends which we have seen so far, and assuming that the  future will be no different than the past. In fact, history has shown us that there have been departure points that have surprised even the most astute observers. Remember the Club of Rome telling us overpopulation would lead to mass starvation by now? Or that we would run out of oil? In the '60s, Africa was seen as on the road to development and first world status. Hmmm, that didn't work out, did it?

We may well be at a turning point in history, with very tricky social questions to answer. I just hope we don't end up with the likes of Margaret Thatcher, George Bush, or Steven Harper trying to answer them.
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Forum Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 12.01
Copyright ©2001-2018 Web Wiz Ltd.

This page was generated in 0.125 seconds.