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Global Warming

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    Posted: 10 Feb 2017 at 10:32
The claims of Global Warming, IMHO, cannot be denied. More proof is being produced on a monthly basis.

What I question though, is whether or not the human contribution to Global Warming is as substantial as claimed.

Scientists have discovered that the world has gone through several periods of climatic change over milenia, in both directions. Reduction in global temperature has been blamed for the annihilation of of major species during the Ice Age, so we had a climate, apparently, which went from at least temperate, to arctict and back to temperate/tropical.

I have a theory that the climatic changes which are currently being experienced are, at least in part, to the movement of the tectonic plates, and the fact that earths axis has and is changing, be it ever so slowly.

Green house gasses probably contribute to the climatic changes, but to what degree, I submit, is arguable.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote caldrail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Feb 2017 at 10:45
The issue is that the threat of Global Warming is used for political ends. Warming is a result of human settlement and activity. Note that the warmest parts of a region are urban. The reason that we are now experiencing a rise in average temperatures is not because of industry and greenhouse gasses per se, but because of the population levels that drive these things. Back in WW2 we had industry going flat out almost everywhere and lo and behold there was little discernible rise. Now we have industry developing around the world with much higher populations and uh oh...

Of course there are unavoidable problems with climate caused by Earth's relative position and alignment - that will never change, and if the moon continues to suffer friction and slow, will only get worse in the far future. Climate always changes, it never remains the same, it's only the short experience of human beings and a failure to communicate what happened in past era's that leads to that kind of ignorance. We moan today about floods - understandably - yet looking abck at newspaper reports of the 20/30's, I find some devastating inundations in the US. So what has actually changed?

Basically, us. With modern suppression of disease, ageing effect, and warfare (yes we do), there are now around three times more human beings on the planet than our historical/biological limits. In the past there were never more than two billion humans or thereabouts with environmental and behavioural factors producing limitations. Now we have pushed these limits away a little - and are trying to push them further. So it doesn't matter what politicians do about Global Warming. Because within a few generations the increase of human activity generates enough heat to overcome the previous limits. Sit back and wait. Sooner of later modern society will implode catastrophically under its own weight. We won't be here of course, long gone, but I fell sorry for those who will have to survive in a world like that. it has happened before too - Ancient Egypt once went through a catastrophic event caused by overpopulation and sudden loss of supplies.
http://www.unrv.com/forum/blog/31-caldrails-blog/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Feb 2017 at 12:58
caldrail-thanks for your response, I'd like to ask you more about what you wrote, in part [quote]" Back in WW2 we had industry going flat out almost everywhere and lo and behold there was little discernible rise."

Is that because scientists weren't looking for it at the time-had no realisation that change was happening-preoccupation with WW2?

With regard to your comments about the increasing population, I read recently where a panel of scientists postulated that, with the medical breaks through taking place, allowing more people to live, and longer, that the planet would, within I think they said 100 years, be unable to support itself, foodwise etc.

I agree that global climate change is being used as a political tool, but, nevertheless, humans must take note of where they are causing these unwelcome changes, and take steps to reduce Greenhouse Gasses, slow logging of native forests etc.

Don't you agree?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Feb 2017 at 04:53
I think that we are doing something, and no, it is not certain how it will end up.  But then again, it never is.  I think that some 'people' are trying to stampede people into doing what the first group thinks right.  When Al Gore wins a Noble Peace prize because he does a documentary, but he shares that prize with a group of scientists unrelated to his project, that says that someone thought he had the right message, but the wrong science.  That is not a good overall message.  It says, "we must act now! and then we (the enlightened ones) will figure out where we (society) are going."

It may be true that we need to do _more_ now, but it doesn't breed a lot of confidence, when the enlightened try to manipulate the public into doing what they think is right.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Feb 2017 at 13:22
franciscoan wrote
Quote It may be true that we need to do _more_ now, but it doesn't breed a lot of confidence, when the enlightened try to manipulate the public into doing what they think is right.

If not the enlightened, then who shall lead us from this land?

It's always the same, people with the scientific knowledge report, but when their prognostications are politically unpopular, for what ever reason, a counter movement develops with the aim of disclaiming or discrediting the science.

Regardless of what we may accept is the cause, there is global warming. End of story.

Global warming will have a terrible impact on the earth as we know it. But we won't be here to see the final ramifications of our lack of action, that will be in store for our grandchildrens grandchildren.

I could never bee classified as a "greenie" but I hate to see what is happening to vast acres of natural forrest in some parts of the world.

Ignore the problem at our descendants peril.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2017 at 02:13
No, not end of story.  The story isn't over until everything is dead, on Earth, in the Universe, etc.

What if global warming is due to the sun getting hotter (which it slowly is)?  Or sunspots or flux in the magnetic field?  That doesn't mean that greenhouse gases aren't complicating matters, but of course _everybody_knows_ it is greenhouse gases, which means that is where we put research money, and ignore other possibilities.
If you look at long term history, we may be 'scheduled' right now to going into a new ice age, what if greenhouse gases are keeping that from happening?  We cut out the greenhouse gases, do we have a problem going the other way?
Maybe we should set off a few volcanoes and get a Krakatoa effect, or a few large nuclear bombs.  Particulate matter could dim things a bit.

See what you seem to be saying is: "enough talk!! What we need is action!!"  But of course, talk is an action and as we discuss matters we learn about them better.  Maybe we need to do something immediately or on a schedule.  But that won't change that we still need to talk about it, reflect on it, and reexamine it.  And whatever else is true, if you think the weather is simple, then that gods are bound to strike you down for fatal pride:)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2017 at 02:17
The public should know what can be done to slow consumption , it isn't jetting around in private planes. There are lots of ways to incentivise  recycling, even food waste can be easily converted to methane. 

Water is the next crisis. and yes destroying vast swaths of trees and estuaries in the "lungs of the world" is reckless. The public will care when they realize how much money they could save themselves by reducing waste disposal costs. Maybe someone will make it a priority.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2017 at 02:18
franciscoan.

Yes, I'm saying that there needs to be more action, of course, as you say, conversation is action.

Unfortunately, not enough talking is going on, and there needs to be dialogue between every country in the world, IMHO.

Herr Donald is one who denys global warming. He needs to be convinced otherwise, and act accordingly, be it an Emissions Trading Scheme, or a flate rate tax, it doesn't matter. What ever suits your country best.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote wolfhnd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2017 at 05:21
Our science isn't sufficiently sophisticated to deal with complex chaotic systems.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2017 at 13:06
Originally posted by wolfhnd wolfhnd wrote:

Our science isn't sufficiently sophisticated to deal with complex chaotic systems.  

It certainly appears so.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2017 at 14:06
The science is good enough, it is the political will that is missing. There are hundreds of grass roots efforts doing garage science that is as simplistic as the Ancient Egyptian battery and certainly more effective than the brilliant plan of burying refuse or finding a poor country and paying them to take our garbage. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2017 at 01:12
Originally posted by Vanuatu Vanuatu wrote:

The science is good enough, it is the political will that is missing. There are hundreds of grass roots efforts doing garage science that is as simplistic as the Ancient Egyptian battery and certainly more effective than the brilliant plan of burying refuse or finding a poor country and paying them to take our garbage. 

I agree. Political will-derived from big business interests, party donations etc.

If I donate millions of dollars to an election fund, and the recipient is elected, wouldn't I be in place for some favours in return? That's what I'm critical of in the US system, if you can't access millions of dollars, you aint in the race buddy, simple.

Australia isn't perfect, but we've demonstrated over the years that anyone can rise to be the top dog, regardless of wealth.

Oh well!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2017 at 01:38
money buys access, and gives the wealthy a chance to discuss matters with the politician.  I don't think that it is a matter of quid pro quo.  Of course, someone in an industry is the best equipped to give a good positive explanation of it, and why the regulations governing it should be this way or that.  In general they're right, but they can't account for catastrophic events, or handle when something which wasn't considered a pollutant, comes to be considered one. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2017 at 11:37
It's true that Trump is taking a knucklehead stance on GW. I don't think that will continue, actually think his kids will eventually turn his thinking. Might help once he sees the $ angle.

In 2014 California spent all of it's budgeted $209 million to fight fires, then squeezed another $70 million out of other state resources.

 Wildfires cost the U.S. about $125 billion annually.

Why toyomotor? Aussies were stubborn about some things when they colonized the continent but they did have sense enough to look to the Aboriginal methods for controlled burns. Fire transformed that continent and everyone in fire science knows it. Every summer wildfires will come so why aren't we using similar methods here?  No political will. My conspiratorial big toe is throbbing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2017 at 14:23
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Originally posted by Vanuatu Vanuatu wrote:

The science is good enough, it is the political will that is missing. There are hundreds of grass roots efforts doing garage science that is as simplistic as the Ancient Egyptian battery and certainly more effective than the brilliant plan of burying refuse or finding a poor country and paying them to take our garbage. 

I agree. Political will-derived from big business interests, party donations etc.

If I donate millions of dollars to an election fund, and the recipient is elected, wouldn't I be in place for some favours in return? That's what I'm critical of in the US system, if you can't access millions of dollars, you aint in the race buddy, simple.

Australia isn't perfect, but we've demonstrated over the years that anyone can rise to be the top dog, regardless of wealth.

Oh well!!!


Recycling and reusable products can make a huge difference.  To incentivize companies and individuals to recycle would be smart, as opposed to charging people to recycle.  for under $30 you can build a kind of 'burper' that will turn food waste into usable methane. 
I like this generation "Z" after the Millennials. It's said these tykes from "Z" generation are very wary of advertising, sensible and pragmatic. This may be the generation to reach the famous "100th monkey" pinnacle of realization. 

Get Ready For Generation Z

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Feb 2017 at 01:04
I would humbly suggest that you look at cold fusion (low energy nuclear reactions, or also lattice assisted nuclear reactions (LENR) (LANR). as a prospective clean energy alternative.  It has had a hard time getting started (funding, publication), but it is real.  They can get more energy out than they put in, but it is probably nowhere near commercial viability.

I have a friend who has a website, coldfusionnow.com.  You might check it out, and then check out some of her (ruby carat) science videos, they're rather mundane, for the science audience.  But that is what is needed right now.  If you have any questions let me know.  Again, "cold fusion" has the potential for being a cheap, clean energy source.  It's promotion has admittedly run into a few roadblocks along the way, but if you look under the surface criticism, its real.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Feb 2017 at 15:51
franciscosan, yes I am a fan of the cold fusion in that I trust_ your_ trust in it. I'm sure you heard about the hydrogen car that Toyota has built? Big setback this month, they had to get hydrogen (fuel cells) cars recalled bc of safety risks. Even so it looks like a temporary setback. There is....hope?

To date, Toyota has sold about 2,840 Mirai cars in Japan, the United States and some markets in Europe, as well as the United Arab Emirates. Toyota launched the Mirai in late 2014. The car, which the EPA says has a 312-mile range, debut in the U.S. market (just California) in fall 2015.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Feb 2017 at 02:12
I don't want you to trust me on it, I want you to check it out and form your own judgment.  And if you find difficulties, I want you to call me on it.  There are two short movies by Ruby Carat that are key in convincing me, the names escape me, but I figure out what they're called if you want to look at them.  They're very simple, one is on the generation of heat by the process, more heat than can be explained by a chemical reaction.  It also helps show why physicists have not been able to repeat the procedure very well, whereas chemists can, because they have the necessary skill set.  The other is about how helium 4 is a product of the reaction, but is very hard to measure because the small size of the reactions, and the fact that helium can migrate through glass.  Pretty boring stuff, but exciting if you think about its potential application.

There is a lot of prejudice against "cold fusion" in the scientific establishment, which has interfered with funding for research for cold fusion.  First scientists (physicists) couldn't replicate it, and so denounced it, Part of that is a belief that research for cold fusion represents a threat to the amount of funding hot fusion gets.  Only so much money for research, and hot fusion doesn't want to share.  Stephen Chu(?), President Obama's Energy Secretary was a hot fusion researcher.
Because physics labs denounced cold fusion as a process, it is not possible to patent cold fusion research, because after all if a DOE scientist says it doesn't exist, then there must be nothing to patent.  That means that scientists (generally chemists) who work on cold fusion cannot patent their processes, and thus protect their research interests.  That means the scientists who do research it, don't necessarily share their research, which further means a lack of transparency, and a belief from others that they are hiding their failures.  Snafu.

I remember a video in High School (mid '80s) about experimental hydrogen cars, it is interesting that they are trying to make it work, but I haven't kept up on it.


Edited by franciscosan - 18 Feb 2017 at 02:15
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Feb 2017 at 03:22
I have seen the movies. I watched them in 2014 when you first talked about Ruby. I'll check them out again but I was pretty impressed the first time. yes the potential they described in the movie was pretty mind blowing.

Would you say there is a conspiracy against cold fusion?
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2016/09/23/is-cold-fusion-feasible-or-is-it-a-fraud/#6122597d1903

The reason this story is important and relevant to the cold fusion game is because there are a large number of ways the "fraud" of the Mechanical Turk could have been caught.

  • People could have demanded instructions for how to build one themselves, and when they couldn't (because it wouldn't work when the instructions were followed), they would know it was fraudulent.
  • People could have tested the device independently, where they would have access to disassemble, analyze and access every single one of the components that make it up. And they would have either uncovered a non-working device (with no human inside) or a fraudulent one (with a human inside).
  • Or they could have demanded replicas or designs that allegedly provided the key components of the device, testing that it actually, physically did what the inventor contended.
franciscosan, I know you already described the criticism of cold fusion. I looked at a recent article and they are saying that they just can't know if cold fusion is possible until a system can be independently assembled without the research scientists. Its a pickle.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Feb 2017 at 05:11
Anything that impinges on the profits of big companies will be the subject of some sort of conspiracy to downplay the advantages offered.

A West Australian man, Ralph SARICH, invented a revolutionary Rotary engine for motor vehicles in 1972, which promised to cut fuel consumption by, from memory, about 60%. Lacking the funds to fully develop the engine, research and marketing, he was invited to the US to work, ostensible on his engine. Lo and behold, his engine has never gone into production, due to reported difficulties in cooling and lubrication.

It's always seemed strange to me that Sarich, an Automotive Egineer, develops a working model in Australia but then it hits hurdles.

I suppose one could be forgiven for thinking that, perhaps, the interests of oil companies came first.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Feb 2017 at 05:25
Impressive.  Sarich's patents are in use-neat!


The Orbital Engine Corp earns its money from the sale of its intellectual property through licence fees and royalties as well as fees for the provision of engineering services. Orbital has earned in excess of $150 million in licence and related fees. Its technology package includes over 1000 patents or patent applications lodged in more than 20 countries worldwide, covering innovation in all aspects of engine and control system technology.

Licensees include General Motors Corporation, Ford Motor Company and Fiat Auto as well as non-automotive companies including Brunswick Corporation (the parent of Mercury Marine), Outboard Marine Corporation, Bajaj Auto Limited and Piaggio V.E.s.P.A. In 1996 Orbital fitted its two-stroke engine to a prototype sports car and a government fleet of Ford Festivas in Australia.

In 2000, Aprilia of Italy released the first two-stroke motorcycle with Orbital?s direct fuel injection technology, and Orbital signed an agreement with Sundiro, one of China's largest scooter manufacturers, to use Orbital?s engine in its popular Chinese scooters.

Who Did It?
Key Organisations
Orbital Engine Corporation Limited : R&D, design
Key People
Ralph Sarich : inventor and developer
Kim Schlunke : engineer, director

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Feb 2017 at 01:56
No, there is not a conspiracy the way you mean it.  Fleischmann and Pons did something in 1986? and labeled it cold fusion.  Fleischmann and Pons were chemists and labeling it cold fusion got the physicists involved, trying to replicate it.  There was spotty success, and at some DOE labs there was failure.  From my understanding, this may be because the chemical engineers have a different set of 'tricks' they use than the physicists.  In other words, the physicists didn't take the care to set it up the way the chemical engineers did, they condemned the whole thing as junk science, and being in DOE labs, they had a lot of pull.  Furthermore, because the DOE scientists panned it, cold fusion scientists could not get published in many peer reviewed journals, had problems with funding, and couldn't get patents for their procedures in the US.  Without patents, they couldn't protect their intellectual property, and this, along with the problem with publication, created problems in desalinating discoveries when they were made.  Of course, DOE scientists are often against cold fusion, but in their opinion, they are just protecting science from junk science.  It also is the case that _if_ cold fusion did get funding it probably would cut into their slice of the pie which now goes to hot fusion research.  Personally, I don't really see the wisdom of creating another sun, this time on Earth.  I am not sure that just because you can do something (which they can't yet), doesn't mean you should do something.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote caldrail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Feb 2017 at 13:20
Quote I'd like to ask you more about what you wrote, in part. "Back in WW2 we had industry going flat out almost everywhere and lo and behold there was little discernible rise."

Is that because scientists weren't looking for it at the time-had no realisation that change was happening-preoccupation with WW2?

I doubt anyone cared - output was vital for the war effort. But the information on climate has been gathered post-WW2 via ecological markers such as tree rings and ice cores, or whatever else.

Quote With regard to your comments about the increasing population, I read recently where a panel of scientists postulated that, with the medical breaks through taking place, allowing more people to live, and longer, that the planet would, within I think they said 100 years, be unable to support itself, foodwise etc.

there is now open promotion of consumption of insect protein, which is easier to produce in bulk, however currently unpalatable to the majority. Well, fine, less of us starve. But isn't that feeding the problem instead of solving it?

Quote I agree that global climate change is being used as a political tool, but, nevertheless, humans must take note of where they are causing these unwelcome changes, and take steps to reduce Greenhouse Gasses, slow logging of native forests etc.

Don't you agree?

All human activity, just like any other species, affects its environment adversely, although in general some species will take advantage of the changes. This chain was demonstrated when wolves were reintroduced in America. many complained, saying farm animals would suffer. What actually happened was that the wild elk population reduced. That meant that undergrowth was allowed to prosper, thus beavers were happy and productive. They created artificial wetlands that other species love. Thus the natural balance was in some ways restored.

Edited by caldrail - 20 Feb 2017 at 13:21
http://www.unrv.com/forum/blog/31-caldrails-blog/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2017 at 23:10
Humans are hard on ecosystems.  We make and shape our own, in ways that are detrimental to wildlife and its habitat.  If a dynamic worldwide ecosystem can survive, then humans will probably survive.  If humans, however, wipe everything else out, I don't see how a peak predator at the top of the food chain can survive without having a dynamic ecosystem to support him.  Life would be a little colder without penguins and silky terriers around.

Areas go natural much quicker than we expect them to revert.  The Korean DMZ and Chernobyl are basically wildlife areas these days, not even any hunting. A rabbit or a fox isn't going to live long enough to have to worry about the long term effects of radiation.  Nor are they heavy enough to set off the anti-tank mines, although I suppose every once in awhile a deer goes BAM! BI!  I wonder if one could create true nature preserves, by seeding radioactives thereby keeping people a-way!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2017 at 02:42
franciscosan

I don't know where you got your informationon Chernobyl, but I read a report yesterday on the progress of it being turned into a twenty foot thick block of concrete, the whole site, hardly a suitable ecosystem for wildlife one would have thought.
Once you eliminate the impossible,
whatever remains,
no matter how improbable, must be the truth.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2017 at 03:00
There is a whole region of no-man's land around Chernobyl that is off limits to people, except for those with special permission.  That region is reverting back to nature, including the urban area in the region, deer and wolves are coming back.  Giant sturgeon live in the river.  Left alone by man and probably slightly radioactive.  I am not talking about the Chernobyl plant proper, but the whole buffer region between it and civilization.

Same thing probably could happen at Fukushima, buffer zone reverting back to nature.  Or again, the 38th parallel DMZ in Korea, a buffer zone no-man's land between North and South Korea.  Hanford Nuclear Reservation, Rocky Flats, dead zones in Russia, Bikini atoll, all areas now basically left alone by man, starting to return to nature.

What does this have to do with global warming?  The Earth has a great capacity of self-healing, if we let it be.
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