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Historical Continuity, Large Systems and Future

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Jan 2010 at 05:41
Just out of curiosity, I looked up "empire" in Wiki and found the following:

"Empire from 1945 to the present

    * Etymology and semantics; Contemporaneously, the concept of Empire is politically valid, yet is not always used in the traditional sense; for example Japan is considered the world’s sole remaining empire because of the continued presence of the Japanese Emperor in national politics. Despite the semantic reference to Imperial power, Japan is a de facto constitutional monarchy, with an homogeneous population of 123 million people that is 97 per cent ethnic Japanese, making it one of the largest nation-states.[8]

    * Communist Empire; the USSR (1922–1991) met the imperium criteria, but had no hereditary emperor (though was ruled by dictators, cf. Soviet Empire), and never identified itself as such. Anti-Communist opponents, notably the US President Ronald Reagan and the UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, labeled it The Evil Empire. Academically the USSR was called imperial, given its likeness to empires past.[citation needed].

    * American Empire; identifying the USA’s American Empire, by its international behavior, is controversial. Stuart Creighton Miller posits that the public's sense of innocence about Realpolitik (cf. American Exceptionalism) impairs popular recognition of US imperial conduct. Since it governed other countries via surrogates — domestically-weak, right-wing governments that collapse without US support.[9] G.W. Bush's Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said: “We don’t seek empires. We’re not imperialistic; we never have been” — directly contradicts Thomas Jefferson, in the 1780s, awaiting the fall of the Spanish empire: “. . . till our population can be sufficiently advanced to gain it from them piece by piece [sic]”. Which indicates that countries goals can change over 200 years. [10][11] In turn, Leftist historian Sidney Lens notes that from its inception the US has used every means to dominate other nations. [12]

    * European Empire redux; Since the European Union began, in 1993, as a west European trade bloc, it established its own currency, the Euro, in 1999, established discrete military forces, and exercised its limited hegemony in parts of eastern Europe and Asia. This behaviour which the political scientist, Jan Zielonka, suggests is imperial, because it coerces its neighbour countries to adopt its European economic, legal, and political structures.[13][14][15][16][17][18][19]

    * The Age of Nation Empires as the Order of the World in the twenty-first century; in his book review of Empire (2000), by Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri, Mehmet Akif Okur posits that, since the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the US, the international relations determining the world’s balance of power (political, economic, military) have been altered by the intellectual (political science) trends that perceive the contemporary world’s order via the re-territorrialisation of political space, the re-emergence of classical imperialist practices (the “inside” vs. “outside” duality, cf. the Other), the deliberate weakening of international organisations, the restructured international economy, economic nationalism, the expanded arming of most countries, the proliferation of nuclear-weapon capabilities, and the politics of identity emphasizing a State’s subjective perception of its place in the world, as a nation and as a civilisation. These changes constitute the “Age of Nation Empires”; as imperial usage, nation-empire denotes the return of geopolitical power from global power blocs to regional power blocs (i.e. centred upon a “regional power” State [China, Russia, US, et al.]), and regional multi-state power alliances (i.e. Europe, Latin America, South East Asia), thus nation-empire regionalism claims sovereignty over their respective (regional) political (social, economic, ideologic), cultural, and military spheres. [20]"

All of the above topics are interesting in their own right. What intrigued me was the book mentioned in the last topic:

Empire (2000), by Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri, and a relevant commentary on this book by one Mehmet Akif Okur, from Turkey:

http://www.sam.gov.tr/perceptions/volume12/winter/winter-004-PERCEPTION(mehmetakifokur)%5B4%5D.pdf

I read the article in the above link and came away with the impression that Hardt, Negri and Okur all think that nation-empires will emerge from regional groups and will replace the role of nation states as the dominant force in the international political landscape in the 21st century. What is interesting is the role that new emerging and globalized identities will play in these nation-empires. So it looks like that it is a already recognized international phenomenon, but not looked at from perspectives and with as much detail as we are doing here in this thread. Some of these identities that will unite the regional groups and work as the dominant cohesive force to keep their integrity are:

1. US+Canada (English speaking Europoid majority)
2. Unasur+Mexico (Spanish/Portuguese speaking Mestizo majority)
3. EU (a common emerging multi-lingual European identity)
4. Arab League + Turkey (if it cannot gain access to EU) (Arabic speaking Arab linked ethnic majority, obviously EU is a better option for Turkey)
5. Sub Saharan African Union (Black African ethnic majority of various tribes from different regions of Sub Saharan Africa)
6. Russian Federation (Russian + kavkaz + Eastern Asian = Eurasian identity, Russian speaking, but of several major ethnic groups, with Russian ethnicity being the dominant majority group)
7. Central Asian Union + Mongolia (Russianized nomadic societies in the North, such as Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Turkmen and Mongol and sedentary societies such as Uzbek and Tajik in the South)
8. China (PRC) (Han Chinese majority)
9. ASEAN (Multiethnic, but mostly influenced and linked to Southern Chinese migration intermingled with indigenous aboriginal groups)
10. SAARC (ethnic Indian Hindu super majority and Muslims as 2nd majority, containing a dual center of power)
11. Oceania (Australia+New Zealand+PNG) (extension of British identity)
12. Japan (indigenous undisturbed Japanese national identity evolved over several millenium)
13. Korea (North + South) (a homogenous Korean identity developed since the three kingdom period)
14. Iran (possibly + Afghanistan + Tajikistan, but unlikely) (carrier of an ancient and proud culture and traditions since the days of Achemenids, as well as that of more recent Shia Islam, and this last one if it continues to be important, obviously will negate the inclusion of most Afghans and Tajiks)



Edited by eventhorizon - 01 Jan 2010 at 05:50
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote drgonzaga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Jan 2010 at 06:22
It does not sound like anything but taurus foeces and such is confirmed by a smell test whether excreted by Wiki or deposited by some with too much time on their hands and scant competence in manipulating historical epochs.
 
Besides, if you insist on posting the ruminations of scatter-brains who've taken too long in exiting from a political science seminar and insist of confusing jargon for substance, then be prepared for the commentary.
Honi soit qui mal y pense
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Jan 2010 at 13:54
Originally posted by drgonzaga drgonzaga wrote:

It does not sound like anything but taurus foeces and such is confirmed by a smell test whether excreted by Wiki or deposited by some with too much time on their hands and scant competence in manipulating historical epochs.
 
Besides, if you insist on posting the ruminations of scatter-brains who've taken too long in exiting from a political science seminar and insist of confusing jargon for substance, then be prepared for the commentary.


You are entitled to your opinion, however if you are not saying anything meaningful and relevant to the discussion on this thread, then be prepared to be ignored.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Jan 2010 at 15:35
http://www.cris.unu.edu/

http://www.cris.unu.edu/Introduction.64.0.html

Introduction

 

The United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies (UNU-CRIS) is a research and training unit of the United Nations University. UNU-CRIS specialises in studying the processes and consequences of regional integration and cooperation.

 

UNU-CRIS, established in Bruges in 2001, is a research and training programme of the United Nations University. UNU is a global network of centres engaged in research and capacity development to support the universal goals of the UN and generate new knowledge and ideas by providing a framework to bring together leading scholars from around the world to tackle pressing global problems.

 

UNU functions as a decentralised 'network of networks' with a truly interdisciplinary and global perspective. The UNU system comprises the UNU Centre in Tokyo and a world-wide network of Research and Training Centres and Programmes assisted by numerous associated and cooperating institutions.

 

The Council of the UNU determines the overall principles and policies guiding the whole university. The Advisory Committee of UNU-CRIS comprising well-known social scientists from different regions of the world, is entrusted by the UNU Council to advise on the research and training activities of UNU-CRIS. The Director of UNU-CRIS has overall responsibility for the research and management of the Institute, and implements the research programme within the policies and guidelines set out by the Advisory Committee and the Council.

 

 

Research is conducted by a Bruges-based resident academic staff and associated researchers. UNU-CRIS receives its core funding from the Flemish Government (Kingdom of Belgium). UNU and the Flemish Government have signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the College of Europe that arranges an institutional collaboration between UNU-CRIS and the College. UNU-CRIS collaborates with the College, Flemish universities and research institutes worldwide. The UNU-CRIS premises are located at Grootseminarie in Bruges, the former Abby of the Dunes with the support of the Province of West-Vlaanderen.

 

As a UN Agency, UNU-CRIS is also a member of the United Nations Team in Belgium.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Omar al Hashim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jan 2010 at 09:07
Following a complaint, the last few posts are being reviewed by moderators. In the meantime could I remind all participants to avoid throwing personal attacks regardless of how they are phrased at anybody.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jan 2010 at 06:33
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/201001/american-decline

I thought this to be a fairly thoughtful and balanced article. The decline of the US will be much more gradual than European mercantile empires that had overseas colonies. But the decline and eventual removal from being the global monarch to a position of one among many of somewhat equal peers, I believe is inevitable. The first two that will take the peer position along with the US, will obviously be China and the EU. The inevitibility is rooted in the fact that the share of US GDP as a part of Global GDP will reduce with time, as GDP's of other regions increase.

There are things however pointed out in the article that are important to prolong the US leadership at world stage. The US has several unique advantages as compared to the rest of the world:

- although most of US population are not from British descent, the US happens to be the lone large system that uses English, the emerging global language that the world already uses to communicate with each other and will do so to a greater extent in the future, this gives the US an advantage that no other large system currently have

- the US is a "new world" country, most of the population come from Europe, in the last 400 or so years, some are from Africa but lately there are increasing percentage of immigrants from Mestizo, Asian and African ethnic groups. While it initially worked as a European white melting pot, now it is evolving more as a salad bowl of ethnic groups from around the world. While white ethnicity is still majority and will remain influential in policy setting and providing direction for this country, no other large system in the world, provide this kind of opportunity for ethnic groups from every part of the planet to migrate, prosper and thrive. As a result, the US is an example and experiment for the world to see, what happens when multiple ethnic groups from different regions of the world live in close proximity and interact with each other. By virtue of this unique history and characteristic of the US and also because of its economic and technological leadership, people of different ethnic groups in the US has the potential to provide leadership and become change agent personnel in business, commerce, science and technology in different respective old world regions of the world which are not fully developed yet, such as:

- Mestizo's for Latin America
- Japanese Americans for Japan (more relevant in the past)
- Korean Americans for Korea
- Chinese Americans for China (playing a great role in China's rise)
- ASEAN Americans for ASEAN
- SAARC Americans for SAARC
- Iranian Americans for Iran
- Arab Americans for Arab League
- CAU Americans (not many but increasing lately) for CAU
- African Americans for SSAU

- the brain drain to the US from the rest of the world that is much touted as a negative, I would argue it to be a win-win for the US and the region in question. In the end, it has been seen, that the immigrant population in the US do provide some leadership and work as change agents in their respective region of origin. This also gives the US a disproportionate advantage in dealing with the rest of the world, which the other large systems lack

Even if the US eventually looses its overwhelming superiority that it currently enjoys, the above unique characteristics will still enable it to provide moral leadership for the foreseeable future, if the US, its population and of course the thinkers and long term strategists so decide, instead of concentrating on efforts to hold on to the current position of global imperial overlord.

Instead of fighting the inevitable which is akin to rowing upstream, a much more productive and wiser alternative would be to foresee the future as it unfolds and help to bring it about in a way that gives the US much more leverage with the new peers. Just as Obama has wisely noted that a rise of China is not threatening for the US, so it should be for the rest of regions, all of whom need a stable structure to build or rebuild their future.

In fact, the competition will soon become intense among large systems, who can see this future before others and create lasting relationships with other large systems by helping with investment of resources in their integration efforts. So far it seems only the EU has taken the lead in this direction, by cooperating with the UN University to form the Center for Comparative Regional Integration Studies (please note links in above posts). I am not aware of any similar efforts initiated by the US. The EU, due to its own integration efforts and experience, is of course in a unique position of its own, to provide this leadership and skills that will be essential and helpful in the integration efforts of other regions.

So any large system, including the US, must concentrate on the very long term future, at least 50 years ahead, to envision what the world will look like then, plan accordingly and act to move to a favorable position accordingly. Engaging in fist fights, to satiate public appetite for fear and jingoism and winning some small territory of land or market share in business or securing vital resources etc. may be counter productive for the long term goals of a large sytem, as it destroys the threads of friendship, cooperation and mutual dependence between large systems in an adverserial encounter between multiple regions.



Edited by eventhorizon - 12 Jan 2010 at 08:30
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jan 2010 at 06:58
1. US+Canada (English speaking Europoid majority)
2. Unasur+Mexico (Spanish/Portuguese speaking Mestizo majority)
3. EU (a common emerging multi-lingual European identity)
4. Arab League + Turkey (if it cannot gain access to EU) (Arabic speaking Arab linked ethnic majority, obviously EU is a better option for Turkey)
5. Sub Saharan African Union (Black African ethnic majority of various tribes from different regions of Sub Saharan Africa)
6. Russian Federation (Russian + kavkaz + Eastern Asian = Eurasian identity, Russian speaking, but of several major ethnic groups, with Russian ethnicity being the dominant majority group)
7. Central Asian Union + Mongolia (Russianized nomadic societies in the North, such as Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Turkmen and Mongol and sedentary societies such as Uzbek and Tajik in the South)
8. China + Taiwan (PRC) (Han Chinese majority)
9. ASEAN (Multiethnic, but mostly influenced and linked to Southern Chinese migration intermingled with indigenous aboriginal groups)
10. SAARC (ethnic Indian Hindu super majority and Muslims as 2nd majority, containing a dual center of power)
11. Oceania (Australia+New Zealand+PNG) (extension of British identity)
12. Japan (indigenous undisturbed Japanese national identity evolved over several millenium)
13. Korea (North + South) (a homogeneous Korean identity developed since the three kingdom period)
14. Iran (possibly + Afghanistan + Tajikistan, but unlikely and may be Ajerbaijan?) (carrier of an ancient and proud culture and traditions since the days of Achemenids, as well as that of more recent Shia Islam, and this last one if it continues to be important, obviously will negate the inclusion of most Afghans and Tajiks)

Eventual goal for all of the above large systems (except for no. 6, 12 and 14 which already are countries), I believe is to have a political union to become more like one country or as close to it as possible. The paths and methods will vary for each region and large systems in it.

So if the people of a nation state cannot see or feel that they can be one country with another nation state, in the far future (people's perspective can change to some extent with time but the gulf must be bridgeable), then they can belong in the same regional group and work towards regional integration. As an example, I can say:

- Mexico can have close trade and migrant source relation with the US, but it belongs more with Latin American Union
- Pakistan, regardless of how close it is to China, in trade, commerce and defense relations, its place is still in SAARC

From these observations it becomes clear that some relationships are doomed to fail and are more like exercises in futility, such as China's entente with Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar, as all of these countries must put their regional interest first, before developing relations with other large systems. The same goes for many other situations in other regions of the world.

There are many different paths to a unified homogeneous future for the global population in the very long term, but I believe regional integration for the near term provides the most optimum solution for many outstanding problems. It will not be a panacea, but I believe that it is the best among all available paths. World Trade and globalization in its current haphazard form, is definitely a far inferior path to the path of regional integration.

Edited by eventhorizon - 12 Jan 2010 at 08:17
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Jan 2010 at 07:23
My condolences for the deceased in Haiti earthquake and my heartfelt sympathy for the living victims who are struggling to survive.

One thing became clear it seems from the tragedy is that building codes and building techniques has to be appropriate for earthquake prone zones, otherwise similar tragedies will be repeated whenever a big one hits an area where buildings are not designed to withstand tremors.

Haiti is a good example of ineffective and small state that never became quite successful. How small states like Haiti which is French speaking and other states in Caribbean and Latin America that are not Spanish/Portuguese speaking (either English or French speaking) can be integrated into a Latin American Union is an interesting question. Since these would not be very much welcome in the US+Canada North American Union, IMHO, they will have no recourse but to integrate with the LAU, of course if LAU members collectively agrees to such a course of action.

Recently I came across the ideas of a contemporary philosopher and political thinker, Giorgio Agamben, namely his ideas of Homo Sacer and "state of exception". It was interesting how he applies this concept of Roman antiquity in current and recent states in 20th century and post renaissance mercantile empire period. He argues that pure violence, even for collective good of the state, can obliterate the difference between democracies and totalitarian states.

I was struck by the "eurocentrism" displayed and implied in his thoughts, but then I thought that it is normal for human's to be egocentric, family centric, clan centric, tribe centric, nation state centric and eventually region centric, there is nothing abnormal about it, considering most of us live and die within our brain observing the outside world from our five senses and then extend our consciousness of identity to ever more larger concentric circles of family, clan, tribe, nation and region which are familiar to us. The fundamental obstacle for a human non-region centric global identity to develop is the fact that we are product and part and parcel of different and separate systems which results in  the perception that some races or ethnic groups are inherently superior to others in other systems.  This idea then is reinforced by the unequal achievement of self management and self protection displayed so far on the face of the planet by different ethnic groups in different regions.

Going back to Agamben's ideas, I thought that they display a fundamental weakness of the currently prevailing Wesphalian system of nation state, where a nation state's territorial integrity and interest is idolized as the be all and end all of human existence.

Yes, there is the Declaration of Universal Human Rights promoted by the UN, which is cited countless times to intervene and defile the sacred altar of Westphalian state hood principle, but when it comes to recognizing and supporting an International Criminal Court, powerful states like the US, China, Russia and India, all steer clear of it, they want no part of it to infringe on their sovereignty.

In this prevailing scenario regional integration like the EU provides a logical evolutionary next step from the Westphalian nation states, IMHO, to create superstructures of stability where different ethnic groups finally get the opportunity to prove their mettle and stand on their own feet. Perhaps ethnocentrism will flourish just like eurocentrism had flourished in the past, so we can have in the future:

- Japan centrism
- Korea centrism
- sino centrism
- South East Asia centrism
- indo centrism
- iran centrism
- turko mongol centrism
- russo centrism
- arab/maghreb centrism
- ss afro centrism
- mestizo/amerindian centrism

In brief, the powerful in the world today are not interested to empower the powerless, at the risk of stating the obvious, the only way to gain power is to visualize that there can be a different reality and then work towards it collectively keeping that vision in sight.


Edited by eventhorizon - 16 Jan 2010 at 08:22
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Jan 2010 at 08:47
Karl Marx, in his eurocentric vision, generalized the class struggle for entire humanity and then different regional leaders used this idea to create their own version of ideologies, such as Maoism, Juche of Kim Il Sung etc., causing much disruption in the social evolution of different regions, with occasional temporary positive effects, but an overall pall of negatives all around, as is natural with any imposition of alien and disruptive ideologies.

What I call for is to recognize that regions are different, have different paths of social evolution (as it is from their origin since many tens of millennium in the past) appropriate for each region. IMHO it is quite alright to follow EU as a global model for integration, but the method and scope of integration must be localized as it is appropriate for each region.

Now will the US, EU, China and Russia help, does it not create a whole lot more complication for them in this new upcoming global order. Yes their collective powers will be reduced and as part of human nature (Nietzche's Will to Power) they cannot be expected to help with this effort, but wise will be the nations that see past the immediate problems and envision the future benefits, to nurture and patronize efforts for such integrations, to create lasting bridges of friendship of mutual benefit.

But wisdom from the powerful aside, I would like to see the rabble around the world wake up, see their clear path forward and walk towards their goal regardless of distractions thrown their way.




Edited by eventhorizon - 16 Jan 2010 at 09:10
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Jan 2010 at 20:33
Originally posted by eventhorizon eventhorizon wrote:

Karl Marx, in his eurocentric vision, generalized the class struggle for entire humanity
 
"Eurocentrism" is not at all the worst "ism". To criticise Marx(or anybody else) come up with something better.
Originally posted by eventhorizon eventhorizon wrote:


What I call for is to recognize that regions are different, have different paths of social evolution (as it is from their origin since many tens of millennium in the past) appropriate for each region. IMHO it is quite alright to follow EU as a global model for integration, but the method and scope of integration must be localized as it is appropriate for each region.
 
It is not so clear what is meant by "regions", nor is it how many 2regions" there are on this planets, what is special for each of them, and if they can be divided into sub-regions and sub-sub regions. Even if we should agree on a number of "regions" it is unclear what belongs to each, regarding 1:territory,2:ressources.3:humans.
What kind of relationship between the "regions"? -An intimate global "super-cooperation" or, completely the opposite:isolation as far as possible?Or a mixture. And there may be lots of other questions
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Jan 2010 at 04:26
Originally posted by fantasus fantasus wrote:

Originally posted by eventhorizon eventhorizon wrote:

Karl Marx, in his eurocentric vision, generalized the class struggle for entire humanity
 
"Eurocentrism" is not at all the worst "ism". To criticise Marx(or anybody else) come up with something better.


I didn't mention "Eurocentrism" as being the worst, it does affect the globe in a disproportionate manner  without a doubt, considering the clout of the population who suffers from this condition, but I mentioned all such "-centrisms" as a natural human condition. In fact I promote regional integration so that other regions can develop their own systems, the ones that do not already have one, which undoubtedly will involve increasing the existence and prevalence of their own indigenous "-centrisms" which are:

- Japan centrism
- Korea centrism
- sino centrism
- South East Asia centrism
- indo centrism
- iran centrism
- turko mongol (turanid) centrism
- russo centrism
- arab/maghreb centrism
- ss afro centrism
- mestizo/amerindian centrism 

About Karl Marx, I use his case as an example of how "euro-centrism" has affected the other non-European regions of the planet. The theories he develops based on his experience in 19th century Europe, he then wanted to apply to the whole human population. IMHO social systems in different regions evolved in separate routes, although many went under the European system for the last several centuries to varying extent, it does not mean that the previous history of these societies have vanished and thus they can be molded with just European thoughts and ideas without taking into account unique and respective indigenous history of social evolution.

Originally posted by fantasus fantasus wrote:

Originally posted by eventhorizon eventhorizon wrote:


What I call for is to recognize that regions are different, have different paths of social evolution (as it is from their origin since many tens of millennium in the past) appropriate for each region. IMHO it is quite alright to follow EU as a global model for integration, but the method and scope of integration must be localized as it is appropriate for each region.
 
It is not so clear what is meant by "regions", nor is it how many 2regions" there are on this planets, what is special for each of them, and if they can be divided into sub-regions and sub-sub regions. Even if we should agree on a number of "regions" it is unclear what belongs to each, regarding 1:territory,2:ressources.3:humans.
What kind of relationship between the "regions"? -An intimate global "super-cooperation" or, completely the opposite:isolation as far as possible?Or a mixture. And there may be lots of other questions

1. US+Canada (English speaking majority of mostly European and with some of Mestizo and African origin)
2. Unasur+Mexico (Spanish/Portuguese speaking Mestizo majority, but includes all countries in South and Central America including the Caribbean)
3. EU (a common emerging multi-lingual European identity)
4. Arab League  (Arabic speaking Arab linked ethnic majority) + Turkey (if it cannot gain access to EU, obviously EU is a better option for Turkey, another alternative for Turkey is to be with CAU, if it can resolve its difference with Armenia and also take Azerbaijan along with it for this journey and thus connect with CAU over Caspian Sea)
5. Sub Saharan African Union (Black African ethnic majority of various tribes from different regions of Sub Saharan Africa)
6. Russian Federation (Russian + kavkaz + Eastern Asian = Eurasian identity, Russian speaking, but of several major ethnic groups, with Russian ethnicity being the dominant majority group)
7. Central Asian Union + Mongolia (Russianized nomadic societies in the North, such as Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Turkmen and Mongol and sedentary societies such as Uzbek and Tajik in the South, and a remote possibility of including Turkey and Azerbaijan)
8. China + Taiwan (PRC) (Han Chinese majority)
9. ASEAN (Multiethnic, but mostly influenced and linked to Southern Chinese migration intermingled with indigenous aboriginal groups)
10. SAARC (ethnic Indian Hindu super majority and Muslims as 2nd majority, containing a dual center of power, with significant Buddhists such as in Sri Lanka, NE India and Myanmar if it joins this group in the future)
11. Oceania (Australia+New Zealand+PNG) (extension of British identity)
12. Japan (indigenous undisturbed Japanese national identity evolved over several millenium)
13. Korea (North + South) (a homogeneous Korean identity developed since the three kingdom period)
14. Iran (possibly + Afghanistan + Tajikistan, but unlikely and may be Azerbaijan?) (carrier of an ancient and proud culture and traditions since the days of Achemenids, as well as that of more recent Shia Islam, and this last one if it continues to be important, obviously will negate the inclusion of most Afghans and Tajiks)

These are the regions I had in mind. For countries in a particular region, if they want an eventual political union, to become one country or at least agree to try by going through different phases of Union, as it is the stated goal of EU to become like a United States of Europe with its own borders, military and federal govt., then they belong in a group, otherwise, any country which has reservations to join or if the other countries in that group has reservation about a certain country to join, then that country should not or cannot join.

I divide the global human population in these regions, so each can have their own indigenous large system (super state) like the US or China, and thus achieve competitive edge and compete in the global market place and economy from a more level playing field. Because I believe for improving competitive edge, societies need a natural large system, as large as possible, which have some common history of living together in the past and have some historical commonality of ethnicity, culture, language, religion etc., which is where I bring in the concept of Historical Continuity.

About cooperation between these regions, of course I would like as much cooperation as possible, such as trade, investment, travel etc., but these considerations will be decided by each region by themselves collectively, as is happening in EU.

Please note that some are already one country, while others are at different stages of integration, starting from thought to implementation.


Edited by eventhorizon - 17 Jan 2010 at 09:45
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Jan 2010 at 09:29
Today I ventured into a restricted section of this forum and went through this thread:

http://www.allempires.net/forum/intra-race-racial-abuse-why_topic125169_page1.html

I have to admire Reginmund's courage in stating what he feels as true from his personal observations, many among us, I am afraid, are not so courageous.

I could not comment there as I do not yet have 100 posts, so I will make a comment here, as it is also relevant to the discussion in this thread.

IMHO, that genetics makes people of different ethnic groups that evolved in different regions different, I believe there is no question about it, but the question remains as to what can be called superior and inferior, with reference to what and using what criteria.

In this thread, I have tried to show that having undisrupted Historical Continuity and/or having a sufficiently large indigenous system, both have tremendous influence on shaping an individual and his/her behavior pattern that originate from these regions. Because human beings are not exactly a pure disconnected individual, but rather a small part of a larger whole system, that evolved over many thousands of years.

What Reginmund states is not just his personal belief, it is my observation that this is also the overriding belief for most of the planetary population. In fact, the less educated a person is, the more racist one's point of view is and the more generalization one tends to favor. In that respect, it is probably true that the poorest of the poor of this world are as a whole more racist than an average white person from anywhere in the traditional West (high GDP countries), simply because they don't know any better, just sheer ignorance and lack of knowledge.

What does this mean then, that poor and "inferior" believe in their own inferiority, yes I would venture to say that that is the case, and its a vicious cycle to change people's belief in such things, unless some different reality emerges and presents itself.

Clearly this is not a healthy situation and does not bode well for the future of humanity. Hence my little effort to point out that regions can pull themselves up, by themselves or with a little help from others and when they do achieve some parity with others, in self management, only then there will be mutual respect of so called "races" or more correctly ethnic groups from different regions.

Till then an Obama here and there, as important as they are, will make very little difference in people's overall perception, including of those who are the perceived victims of the current order.

So my repeated emphasis on regions to have a stable political structure to build upon so people can learn to excel in the management of their own affairs in their own indigenous large system and thus hopefully become masters of their own fate.

My hypothesis in this thread here implies that the billions of dollars of development aid that went to developing countries spent by the developed countries, have been a misguided effort. Mostly it helped fatten bank account of cleptocrats and left not much lasting impact on target countries and regions. Similarly misguided are the military ventures (costing trillions) to build and rebuild flimsy westphalian nation states such as Iraq and Afghanistan and they will not solve problems of extremism or terrorism, which will find new homes in more greener pastures as there are plenty of weak semi failed states in vulnerable regions.

A different approach which I present here, I believe, will be much more effective in solving these intractable problems of eradicating poverty, backwardness, as well as problems such as extremism and terrorism and thus stabilize and improve the sorry state of affairs of the global human population.


Edited by eventhorizon - 19 Jan 2010 at 05:17
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jan 2010 at 12:08
Reporting on the most powerful large system on the planet, namely the US. The recent Supreme Court decision to provide first amendment right to corporations and effectively removing any limits to funding of political advertisements is a momentous event. It shows that:

- the corporate supported Republican strategy to appoint conservative judges as rear guards to protect them in case of a Democratic take over of Congress and Senate have proven effective
- essentially the US democracy has become a government by the corporations, for the corporations and of the corporations
- no one is to blame for this but collectively the people of the US, poor, middle class and rich alike, well it has effectively become a rule largely by the rich and powerful now, who recruit the clueless Christian right as pawns to get their way

Democracy is a nice concept in theory, specially it needs a majority educated and well aware public who are vigilant about their rights, otherwise, as just happened, the collective long term interest is frequently undermined by the privileged. The US constitution definitely needs to be upgraded soon to correct these deficiencies, otherwise we may have to look forward to a slightly more precipitous fall from grace of the reigning monarch of a large system on the face of this planet. Perhaps that will be good for the rest of the regions of the world who would welcome such a development.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jan 2010 at 12:42
About the current policy wrangling that is going on regarding Afghanistan, Pakistan and India on what should be India's role in Afghanistan and how Pakistan can be more accommodating to US goals of reigning in the Taleban and assorted other extremists, here are some words from the perspective of my hypothesis concerning regional integration:

- SAARC union is a tool that has been under utilized, the US would be well advised to use this as a tool for stabilization of this region
- an EU type integration is one of the few ways to reduce Chinese influence and resolve differences and hostility between India and Pakistan
- Myanmar's inclusion as the ninth member country should be welcomed and encouraged and it should be the last country to be admitted in this Union
- a SAARC stabilization scheme such as training of Afghan troops by Armed force personnel of other SAARC countries can be much cheaper than US training on the ground
- a SAARC force comprising mostly Muslims from other SAARC countries could be much more effective in stabilizing Afghanistan than current NATO/US force, who are seen as occupiers and who frequently kill civilians without much thought, something they would never do in another "white" country. For humanity, one race cannot police another race yet, human minds have not reached that stage of race neutrality
- Pakistan itself is destabilized due to pursuing wrong strategy and national goals (another story in itself), it cannot help stabilize Afghanistan, the treatment it needs is to make it free from the Chinese sphere of influence and bring it back to regional focus and repair its relations with India
- Arab extremists need to be kicked out from Afghanistan and Pakistan, their toxic presence must be cleansed through a determined propaganda against them

Again, like many other regions, the people, human and other resources are all present within the region to solve its problems, if the US/EU/Japan and other powerful countries or regions think that it is important to stabilize Afghanistan and Pakistan then the focus should be on the region as a whole. China is an outsider to this region and has been working diligently to create division among SAARC member countries so that the region does not integrate. It also wants to become a SAARC member with its pawn Pakistan's support with the same goal of preventing SAARC integration.

Who knows, if the effort is successful, it can work as a balance against China's rise, so two goals could be met from the same initiative and strategy.


Edited by eventhorizon - 06 Feb 2010 at 06:09
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jan 2010 at 13:50
Econographication-Lab/Exp-1-2005
Application of the Pyramid Graph:
Global Dimension of Regional Integration Model (GDRI-Model)
By
Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

http://www.econographication.com/L-1.pdf
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Feb 2010 at 09:47
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Count_Richard_Nikolaus_von_Coudenhove-Kalergi
http://www.tokai.ac.jp/spirit/archives/human/pdf/hs09/03_05.pdf

Richard Nikolaus Eijiro von Coudenhove-Kalergi, a true Euro-Asian (son of an Austrian father and a Japanese mother), or should I say a global citizen far ahead of his time, dreamed of a Pan-Europa, "A visionary proved himself to be a realist". A practical idea that will have tremendous implications for not just Europe but for the rest of the regions of the world that need integration a la EU.

I wonder what role his "aristocratic" family background (his father was an "aristocrat", the mother was a daughter of a Japanese oil tycoon) played in coming up with this practical vision of Pan Europa, though it is termed as a bastion of conservatism albeit cosmopolitan in its outlook, "a bridge between monarchy and republic".

Whereas when I look at the ideas coming from leftists such as Karl Marx, who I consider a scoundrel and an idiot of first order, all I see is world wide disruption and devastation for at least a 100 year time period and the saga has not yet ended in the PRC, although the communist party there has in effect become the new elite and patron of a new capitalist class that disproportionately includes friends and relatives of party functionary. Indeed, with the world wide failure of communism/marxism, the Chinese communist party I would guess are embracing the only other meme that can keep the 1.2 billion majority of Chinese united, which is Han Chinese nationalism, the very ideology of their nemesis Kuomintang, who fled the mainland and took refuge in the island of Taiwan. I guess Chinese Communist Party should now invite the Kuomintang, form an alliance and thus mark the end of the futile hostility between the two sides across the Taiwan straits. The future of Taiwan and PRC is intimately tied within one large system. The reigning global monarch of a large system, the US, will always take advantage of a family feud and poke its dirty nose where it does not belong, as is happening now with this arms sales row. Anyways I digress.

While I take issue with the theories of Marxism/communism/socialism and its many local variants such as Leninism, Trotsky-ism, Maoism, Pol Pot-ism etc. that caused disruption in so many places, I value the model of welfare states a la Scandinavia, where the wealthy are heavily taxed (as opposed to the US where the wealthy are destroying the future of their state by cannibalizing its foundation, I guess it cannot be helped as US, though a large system, has problems in the Historical Continuity area). These welfare states happen to coexist with some form of Monarchism, which I believe is not a pure coincidence. Undisrupted societies with unbroken Historical Continuity usually value mutual well being far more than disrupted entities, this part of my hypothesis is probably being at play here.

Soundness and practicality of ideas are tested over time from the results they achieve in many different places and situations.

Like Coudenhove-Kalergi, we need visionary leaders who are ready to make personal sacrifices in unifying their regions and thus lay the foundation for the superstructure to build upon, specially so in regions where our fellow human beings are suffering a fate that they do not deserve (nos. 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 13):

1. US+Canada (English speaking majority of mostly European and with some of Mestizo and African origin)
2. Unasur+Mexico (Spanish/Portuguese speaking Mestizo majority, but includes all countries in South and Central America including the Caribbean)
4. Arab League  (Arabic speaking Arab linked ethnic majority) + Turkey (if it cannot gain access to EU, obviously EU is a better option for Turkey, another alternative for Turkey is to be with CAU, if it can resolve its difference with Armenia and also take Azerbaijan along with it for this journey and thus connect with CAU over Caspian Sea)
5. Sub Saharan African Union (Black African ethnic majority of various tribes from different regions of Sub Saharan Africa)
7. Central Asian Union + Mongolia (Russianized nomadic societies in the North, such as Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Turkmen and Mongol and sedentary societies such as Uzbek and Tajik in the South, and a remote possibility of including Turkey and Azerbaijan)
8. China + Taiwan (PRC) (Han Chinese majority)
9. ASEAN (Multiethnic, but mostly influenced and linked to Southern Chinese migration intermingled with indigenous aboriginal groups)
10. SAARC (ethnic Indian Hindu super majority and Muslims as 2nd majority, containing a dual center of power, with significant Buddhists such as in Sri Lanka, NE India and Myanmar if it joins this group in the future)
11. Oceania (Australia+New Zealand+PNG) (extension of British identity))
13. Korea (North + South) (a homogeneous Korean identity developed since the three kingdom period)

Notable quote from Coudenhove: "We are experiencing the most dangerous revolution in the world history: the revolution of the State against the man. We are experiencing the worst idolatry of all the time: the deification of the state. (Totaler Mensch - totaler Staat)"

Edited by eventhorizon - 01 Feb 2010 at 10:23
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2010 at 09:27
Just a few ideas that I came upon.

The large system of Japan, a closed inbred and insular large system undisrupted for most of known history, showed remarkable strength in adopting modern technology and using them even better than the inventors of these technology in the West, since it opened up in Meiji restoration period. Since then they have stumbled once in WW II.  In its quest for export led growth they stumbled again in the real estate boom of the 1980's. Lately the Japanese economy is facing some head wind, which is showing up in the form of recall of Toyota and Honda cars.

Some people are claiming that arrogance, complacence and over expansion are factors behind this phenomenon, which are natural for being at the top of heap of automotive quality pyramid for the last 2-3 decades, but I have another thought. May be they have essentially been performing at their limit and others are probably catching up, specially the Koreans, whose society is as naturally undisrupted for the last 1400 years, except for the last century or so, when it saw Japanese colonial rule, division of their country and finally taking root of Christianity and successful conversion in the South. All that, I believe, had some impact on the social cohesion, but enough of it remains to compete successfully with Japan in all fields of export oriented high tech manufactured goods. With natural large systems such as the US, EU, China and India, soon there will be a lot more competition for Japan or Korea, as endowed they are with beautifully preserved homogeneous societies, it will be difficult to fight with much larger systems in the long run. According to the hypothesis in this thread, my prediction is that, eventually both Japan and Korea will loose much of their current competitive edge as societies in other larger systems evolve and become more homogeneous and cohesive.

If I may offer some words of advice, Toyota executives should get to the bottom of the idea and allegation that there is something wrong with electronic throttle control hardware or software, and should not limit their investigation and solution to floor mat or pedal mechanisms. A comprehensive and above board look at this problem and a thorough solution should impress the public and help retain their market share, any less would be damaging for the brands long term prospects.

http://www.edn.com/blog/1690000169/post/630052463.html


Edited by eventhorizon - 08 Feb 2010 at 07:42
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2010 at 10:31
PRC (China) is again in the headlines making angry noises about Obama meeting the Dalai Lama. Now while I made clear that the matter between China and Taiwan is a family feud (as both places are majority Han Chinese) and selling arms to Taiwan was feeding fuel to the fire on the part of the US, the same cannot be said about Tibet and Dalai Lama.

PRC, has by force occupied the native land of three peoples and calls them by the euphemism Autonomous regions, these are Inner Mongolia, Tibet (parts of which were incorporated in other neighboring provinces) and Xinjiang. Together these regions have close to 50% of PRC's land area. The history and occupation of Inner Mongolia is a bit complicated as Mongols have a long history with Han Chinese, from ancient times when nomadic Huns (a kindred people of Mongol's ancestors) and other eastern nomadic people periodically attacked from the North and specially since Chingis Khan from around early 1200's. Han Chinese have suffered quite a bit under racist Mongol Yuan and Manchu Qing dynasties. Manchu's willingly became the rulers, thinned out in the vast Han Chinese population, eventually their home land Manchuria was inundated and the Manchu's as a people, since the fall of Qing in 1912, have merged with the Han Chinese. Mongols on the other hand, at least the ones in the far north part of then Mongol homeland, remained staunchly opposed to loosing their identity in the midst of a sea of Han Chinese. With Russian help, they were able to curve out a rather large area as their homeland, which is today's Mongolia, but they lost Inner Mongolia, most of which was their traditional homeland. Since 1850's it was flooded with Han Chinese farmers and now only around 10% of the population in Inner Mongolia are ethnic Mongols. Because of what the Mongols did in recent history in China and how they treated the Han's as 4th class citizens, akin more to slaves during Yuan rule and then again with their help of Manchu's during Qing dynasty in a similarly oppressive foreign regime, I am not much concerned about Inner Mongolia, as it is kind of poetic justice or Karma if you will for the Mongols, any one familiar with today's Mongolians (in Ulan Bator) would note that they remain one of the most virulently racist people. Mongol version of Neo Nazi sympathizers with their angers directed against a rising Chinese people and state, increasingly influential in Mongolia, is a common theme in the popular psyche there.

The matter of Tibet and Xinjiang is quite another matter. Xinjiang was a part of the Chinese state nominally under Tang, way back in history. After the battle of Talas in 751 AD Uyghurs and Tibetans took over this area in the North and South respectively and Han Chinese were essentially expelled from Turkic Central Asia. Under Mongol Yuan dynasty, both Tibet and Xinjiang region came under Chinese state. Under Ming, the control was very nominal with Tibet but Xinjiang was completely lost to Muslim Mongols called Chagatai Moghuls. Under Manchu Qing both regions were reoccupied and incorporated with the Chinese state, as part of the Great Game where Great Britain was afraid of growing Russian influence at the door steps of British India and helped finance Qing invasion of these areas. With fall of Qing in 1912 both areas became virtually independent. In 1950's the PLA invaded both areas again and annexed them into the Chinese state.

Tibet and Xinjiang are home to distinct ethnic groups with their own distinct culture and religion, that is quite different from Han Chinese mainstream. To reduce the risk of separation and secession, similar to what happened after the fall of Soviet Union, the Han Chinese dominated CPC has a policy of demographic invasion to inundate both areas with Han Chinese population, so that eventually both areas have Han Chinese majority and thus reduce the risk of secession at any point in the future.

In principle, I do not agree with this policy, as it is a great disruption for the affected groups, namely Tibetans and Turkic Muslims of Xinjiang (Uyghur, Kyrgyz and Kazakh/Qazaq), but when we weigh the interest of 1.2 billion Han Chinese against the natural rights of some 15 million Turkics and some several million Tibetans, we can get some perspective that Han Chinese really do need their lebensraum and their claim has some validity just from looking at the numbers concerned. But they could go about it in a much more humane way. Once they have removed the risk of secession, they could provide much more autonomy, cultural and religious freedom and share the fruits of economic growth. Specially since, historically, both Uyghurs and Tibetans never subjugated Han Chinese and humiliated them, like the Mongols and Manchus did in the past, if anything they have come to the help and aid of the Han Chinese states in times of need, during attacks from the nomadic North. It will serve the Han Chinese well to remember these historical facts with gratitude and treat both of these people with a little more humanity and respect.

Once the Han Chinese dominated CPC (Communist Party of China) leadership learns to properly handle these two regions, there would be no reason for Dalai Lama to beg for attention around the world to look at the plight of Tibetans, the onus on this issue is on the CPC polit buro. The hawks among them such as Hu Jin Tao and others who are rising from governorship in these two regions, by tough handling of security matters, is an entirely wrong strategy for the CPC polit buro, it needs a complete rethink to turn around the current untenable situation prevailing in Tibet and Xinjiang and bring some balance for their (Han Chinese) own long term interest. When the PRC leadership or more correctly Han Chinese leadership learn how to handle these annexed regions properly, it is only then there will be no leverage for third parties such as the US or any other large systems to create problem for the Han Chinese state (PRC or any other future incarnation).


Edited by eventhorizon - 06 Feb 2010 at 08:06
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2010 at 08:45
The inimitable George Carlin on USA, "we like war":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Rlqjxst6xU

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http://www.focus-fen.net/?id=f2266

The opposite of demographic invasion seems to be happening in Caucasus region of Southern Russia.

"Alex Alexiev: Russia’s losing the North Caucasus
31 March 2010 | 17:38 | FOCUS News Agency
FOCUS News Agency talked to Alex Alexiev, a fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the leader of the program Islam Radicalism and International Terrorism.

FOCUS: Mr. Alexiev, in 2009 you forecasted that as a result of the policy of Vladimir Putin, the ethnic Russian population in the Northern Caucasus has almost disappeared, which would lead to the Islamization of the region. Has your forecast come true?
Alex Alexiev: It has, to a great extent and continues coming true. The percentage of Russians that have remained in North Caucasus is constantly diminishing. For instance, regions like Dagestan have less than 5% of Russian. In Chechnya – the percentage according to some is 2%, and according to others – 3%. There is only about 1% of Russian in Ingushetia. A great part of the region of North Caucasus, its eastern part in particular, has almost been left without residents of Russian origin. This, of course, means that the local Muslim population becomes the absolute dominating factor. To the east of Ingushetia, there are still more Russians – in Kabardino-Balkaria and Cherkezia. However, the same process is being observed there, too. After all, when we reach to the situation that these parts of Russia are not Russian anymore in any extent, the conclusion is fully logical: that they would hardly be able to preserve their influence there. The radicalization of the Islamist movement in North Caucasus is to a great extent due to the fact that very few Russians have remained in the region. They constantly flee from the region, which is becoming even dangerous for Russian people. In addition, when there are no Russians, the locals feel no affiliation to Russia. This would after all, lead to a situation in which Russia, as a state, would lose North Caucasus as part of its territory."

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2010 at 08:52
Spotlight on Africa:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/southafrica/7552569/Eugene-Terreblanche-the-man-I-knew.html
http://blogs.timeslive.co.za/hartley/2010/04/04/the-fall-of-eugene-terre-blanche-and-the-rise-of-julius-malema/

Harbinger of things to come or just random bleeps in the radar.

http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=169790

I had a wonderful conversation with a Nigerian Muslim lately and his views on Arabs from his visits and stays in KSA and the gulf states were interesting. I am not an expert in this matter, but my assertion that North Africans who are members of Arab League, should leave the African Union and stay out of it seems valid. According to him, Black Africans do not need a new colonial master race, even if they happen to share living space in the same continent.



Edited by eventhorizon - 05 Apr 2010 at 09:11
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2010 at 16:11
What just happened in Kyrgyzstan is one reason why they need a larger more stable structure than a country of just 5 million people, such as a Central Asian Union. Kazakhstan wants to merge it with their country as they have quite a younger brotherly warm feeling towards the Kyrgyz (the Kazakhs are steppe nomads, whereas the Kyrgyz are mountain nomads, Kyrgyz is also a very old historic nation, whereas Kazakh is a new post Chingis grouping), but the poorer Kyrgyz, still want to keep their independence. Language and culture of Kazakhs and Kyrgyz are quite similar, much more so than their similarity with other nationalities such as the Turkmen, Uzbek or Uighur.

Bakiyev is from the South (Osh is the main city in the South, where many Kyrgyz have picked up sedentary habits and mindsets from the Uzbeks) and people from the North, such as Talas and Issykkul don't get along well with them. Bakiyev was apparently more corrupt than Akayev (from Issykkul), who he replaced in 2005 Tulip revolution, and as it seems from the 40-100 or more lives lost, Bakiyev acted like a true Southerner, or may be it was just an accidental spur of the moment mishap in the melee.

If this lady Otunbayeva, the opposition leader apparently in charge, is as good as people say she is, and if there is proper election in 6 months, may be the Kyrgyz will get a better breed of leader this time, but luck has not been on their side for a long time it seems, so only time will tell. But they are a brave and hardy people, they will get through these tough times sooner or later.



Edited by eventhorizon - 09 Apr 2010 at 03:54
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Apr 2010 at 11:20
Unconfirmed rumors from Bishkek:

Bakiyev stole 2 trucks of gold from National treasury (I didn't know that they had that much gold, but it could be small pickup trucks and then also they have some gold mines there).

He is trying to raise a Southern Army of goons to attack and take over Bishkek, where there already is a big contingent of southern goons (engaged in looting in Bishkek). There is a distinct but remote possibility of a civil war between Northern Kyrgyz and Southern Kyrgyz, most of whom support Bakiyev as he is one of their own. Again all these southern antics are really the fault of the Uzbeks, as they, the Southern Kyrgyz, picked up these reprehensible habits from those Uzbeks. The Northerner Akayev, when he was ousted was a polite gentlemen, he gave up without any loss of life and even fled the country, so to save the country from plunging into any untoward incident, but then the Southern Bakiyev, typical of his kind does not seem to have the vestige of the decency and honor that any Kyrgyz should show, in keeping with the example set by the national legendary hero, Manas.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Apr 2010 at 16:44
I wanted to comment on Current Affairs thread about the Polish plane crash, but could not since I don't have 100 posts. So I will record my impression here.

It gave me a window into Katyn massacre and what a tragic irony this crash was. Just as an entire generation of the Polish intelligentsia was wiped out by Stalin and his followers, here a smaller scale version of the tragedy was re-enacted. Very very sad.

It also led me to look at Stalin's legacy and reinforced my belief that a small man called Karl Marx gave erroneous ideas to other small men world wide, so they could get the excuse of wiping out thousand years evolutionary results, in the name of progress and class war fare.

Ideological meme's are dangerous tools and the erroneous ones are even more dangerous and disruptive, Karl Marx's communism was the epitome of such erroneous ideas. That it is possible to destroy and remake societies, even if it may kill or displace a large part of a society and to think that this kind of disruption will not have any negative effect, is not only foolish, but shows lack of any understanding of human social systems in general. How such a theory became popular and caught the fancy of so called intellectuals, shows that we humans still have a lot to learn about our own nature. The road to hell they say, is always paved with good intentions.


Edited by eventhorizon - 12 Apr 2010 at 13:09
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Baron


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Apr 2010 at 18:39
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Baron
Baron


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Apr 2010 at 09:27
Manas Base politics, another example of US bungling foreign relations:

http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-awaits-payback-for-tolerating-thugs-20100411-s0wv.html



Edited by eventhorizon - 12 Apr 2010 at 09:30
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Omar al Hashim View Drop Down
WorldHistoria Master
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Omar al Hashim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Apr 2010 at 11:09
What do you mean by 'these reprehensible habits', I find it somewhat hard to believe that the southern Kyrgyz are more likely to hang onto power by any means necessary than northern ones are. Typically this is a trait that follows people, not nations.
 
The tulip revolution was part of the same movement as the orange revolution in Ukraine and the rose revloution of Georgia. It was a push by the west to extend their influence into former soviet regions through the use of flower power.
Russia hasn't taken this lying down, nor did the west choose their candidates so well. Georgia was invaded, Ukraine has since decided that their orange govt wasn't so good after all, and now this in Kyrgyzstan - which is highly unlikely not to have Russian backing.
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Baron
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Apr 2010 at 12:46
Originally posted by Omar al Hashim Omar al Hashim wrote:

What do you mean by 'these reprehensible habits', I find it somewhat hard to believe that the southern Kyrgyz are more likely to hang onto power by any means necessary than northern ones are. Typically this is a trait that follows people, not nations.
 
The tulip revolution was part of the same movement as the orange revolution in Ukraine and the rose revloution of Georgia. It was a push by the west to extend their influence into former soviet regions through the use of flower power.
Russia hasn't taken this lying down, nor did the west choose their candidates so well. Georgia was invaded, Ukraine has since decided that their orange govt wasn't so good after all, and now this in Kyrgyzstan - which is highly unlikely not to have Russian backing.


The Nomadic of people of Central Asia historically looked down on some characteristics or behavior patterns typically associated with sedentary people, such as the Uzbeks and Uighurs. In particular, the characteristics would be:

- lack of being straight forward and above board
- cunning
- deceiving

Yes, its a bit of generalization and stereotyping, but its not me that has this attitude, but its a rather common view held by the Kyrgyz as well as Kazakhs.

Your view on the flower revolution is correct in general, but specifics of every situation is probably more local and complex. It is expected that when an entity like Soviet Union goes down, there will be a push in the opposite direction, now the pendulum is swinging back, to bring things more towards a balanced reality. But it is premature to think that Russia is in the driving seat in this region and the base will be closed. The local people and leadership there are still learning to balance their relations with the 3 big super powers, US, Russia and China. My prediction is that both bases (US and Russian) will remain open in Kyrgyzstan. The mistake on the part of the US, probably made by people on the ground, such as the Ambassador, was not to take a balanced approach with both Bakiyev and opposition, as things are quite unstable in small states like Kyrgyzstan where anything can happen at any time, here is a good analysis:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/10/opinion/10mcglinchey.html


Roza Otunbayeva is from Osh, so she is also a Southern Kyrgyz and Bakiyev's wife is an ethnic Russian lady, which makes Maksim Bakiyev (son of just deposed Bakiyev), half Russian, who was being groomed to become the next leader, so things are not quite black and white.




Edited by eventhorizon - 12 Apr 2010 at 13:04
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