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Historical Continuity, Large Systems and Future

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2011 at 05:48
Originally posted by eventhorizon eventhorizon wrote:


Racism I think will become more acute in the future as advances in genetics bring out more information about genes that are more desirable and are responsible for some superior abilities. It may eventually cause people to shop for genes to be included in the gene pool for their babies, in effect creating custom designed babies.


We still have to see who has the best genes Wink. And somebody maybe superior... but what matters is for what.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2011 at 06:49
TV broadcast industry with its large barrier to entry is dominated by large corporations, so it becomes a corporate propaganda machine. Gil Scott Heron:

The Revolution will not be televised
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGaoXAwl9kw

I would bet more on the Internet, where video is also available.

We still do not know who has the superior genes and for doing exactly what, my guess is that advances in genetics will out this "dirty" and "undesirable" secret in coming decades and will then let the shopping begin, for custom designed babies.


Edited by eventhorizon - 03 Jun 2011 at 18:19
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2011 at 07:04
I want some blue-blood genes for my kids, please.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2011 at 08:19

I fail to see any evidence of more "acute racism" in the future, on the contrary. With more communication and even connection between peoples from all parts I would rather expect much less of it - though perhaps for some time "sensitivities" may increase. And why should we believe TV-corporations will be very relevant except for the very near future?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2011 at 18:06
Blue blood or at least skin can be gotten from eating on plates and silver ware made from real silver, or colloidal silver that can be made with a little machine. Here is a real life blue blood man from eating too much colloidal silver:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gq8C0GknwAM

About racism, it seems that it should be on the decline, but it is based on an apparent fallacy that all ethnic groups and even all individuals are created equal and have equal ability to acquire any productive or sought after skill. Since there is no scientific basis yet for ethnic or genetic superiority to attain certain skills, the above fallacy reigns supreme. But the field of genetics is just getting started, so I am guessing some unpleasant info will be found in a few decades, which will disprove that apparent fallacy.

Just like movie theaters has not died, TV will not die just yet and Faux propaganda will continue for the couch tomatoes or is it potato.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2011 at 18:09
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/29/weekinreview/29ottoman.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

Can Turkey Unify the Arabs?
By ANTHONY SHADID
Published: May 28, 2011
GAZIANTEP, Turkey

Quote
...

Hakan Cinkilic, foreign trade manager of a plastics company called Sun Pet, is reaping the benefits. Nearly 80 percent of its products go to Iraq, and the company set up a factory in Jordan last year. Its exports have more than doubled since 2008. This year he has already traveled to Libya, the United States, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

As he spoke, his cellphone rang. It was a customer in Kirkuk, Iraq, who spoke to him in Turkish. A few minutes later, a businessman called from the West Bank. The conversation unfolded in English, punctuated by Arabic expressions inflected by the vowels of his native tongue. You wouldn't call him neo-Ottoman, given the term's suggestion of a resurgent imperialism. He's not really Levantine, an identity whose borders hug the Mediterranean coast. He seemed post-Ottoman, reinterpreting the past.

"It's natural," he said simply.

Maybe Sykes and Picot turning in their grave.

The revolution will not be televised:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGaoXAwl9kw

Edited by eventhorizon - 03 Jun 2011 at 18:23
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2011 at 18:39
Originally posted by eventhorizon eventhorizon wrote:



About racism, it seems that it should be on the decline, but it is based on an apparent fallacy that all ethnic groups and even all individuals are created equal and have equal ability to acquire any productive or sought after skill. Since there is no scientific basis yet for ethnic or genetic superiority to attain certain skills, the above fallacy reigns supreme. But the field of genetics is just getting started, so I am guessing some unpleasant info will be found in a few decades, which will disprove that apparent fallacy.
Just like movie theaters has not died, TV will not die just yet and Faux propaganda will continue for the couch tomatoes or is it potato.

If there is no scientific basis yet, as You admit , then why call equality a "fallacy"? If someone claim great differences betweens the abilities of two genetic groups to solve, say mathematical equations, then the "burden of evidence" are on his shoulders or what?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jun 2011 at 00:35
Originally posted by eventhorizon eventhorizon wrote:


About racism, it seems that it should be on the decline, but it is based on an apparent fallacy that all ethnic groups and even all individuals are created equal and have equal ability to acquire any productive or sought after skill. Since there is no scientific basis yet for ethnic or genetic superiority to attain certain skills, the above fallacy reigns supreme. But the field of genetics is just getting started, so I am guessing some unpleasant info will be found in a few decades, which will disprove that apparent fallacy.


Apparent fallacy? No scientific basis?
The science behind it is the short time that passed from the exodus out of Africa. In very short terms, we are all Bushmen descendants, and the Black, White, Asian and all the other varieties of mankind, are just derivation of them. There is no much difference in important things, like brain wiring, but quite a lot in external, trivial details of body aspect.

In short, if we were dogs, we could appreciate the difference between bull dogs, collies, German sheppards and chihuahuas, but all of then are dogs, they rise the leg to make pee, and say "woof" LOL

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jun 2011 at 05:13
I hope like all sensible people that nothing will emerge from the field of genetics that will demolish this established axiom of equality, but I worry what will happen if something is found, that is why I mention that there may be a real scramble and mad rush to get "superior genes".

I think we should keep our mind open for all possibilities and be prepared for anything. Most often truth is stranger than fiction.

fantasus, please note, I am not calling it a fallacy outright, but an apparent fallacy, that too I admit is too strong, as there is no evidence yet. So my choice of words were not exactly wise or correct.

As for the different species of dog, unfortunately they have very different abilities and skill levels among the different breeds, in fact this is exactly what I am afraid that will be found among human species. Here is a dog version of Arnold the Governator:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-467985/Meet-Incredible-Hulk-Hounds.html

Genetic mutation from the time of initial migration from Africa, is it only limited to superficial attributes like skin and eye color, or is there more fundamental changes that happened in brain functioning for example. Modern man went out of Africa around 60,000 years ago, but then older cousins remained in Africa. Also there are species such as Neanderthal, Pekinensis etc., that traveled out 1-2 millions years ago, who may have mingled with modern man. So there are many questions, not all of them have been answered yet.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kowalskil Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jun 2011 at 13:10
Originally posted by eventhorizon eventhorizon wrote:

I hope like all sensible people that nothing will emerge from the field of genetics that will demolish this established axiom of equality, but I worry what will happen if something is found, that is why I mention that there may be a real scramble and mad rush to get "superior genes".

Nothing dramatic would happen. I already know that I am not a champion in anything. Slight differences between averages does not mean that distributions are very different.

Ludwik Kowalski (see Wikipedia)
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Ludwik Kowalski author of Diary of a Former Communist: Thoughts, Feelings, Reality.

http://csam.montclair.edu/~kowalski/life/intro.html

Diary kept in the USSR, Poland, France, and the USA
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jun 2011 at 15:39
It is a pleasure to have you in this forum, I have seen the online book at the link in your post, I will go through it in due time. I may have some questions for you in the future.

As for the differences in gene, that is my hope also that nothing dramatic will happen, but the human species is unpredictable and our herd instinct and greed are both strong, that is my worry.


Edited by eventhorizon - 04 Jun 2011 at 15:40
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2011 at 15:59
Both Russia and China have Syrian blood in their hand.

Edited by eventhorizon - 14 Jun 2011 at 16:00
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2011 at 05:59
While I respect Rep. Kucinich for being the flag bearer of liberal and progressive causes, I totally disagree with his support of mass murderers such as Qaddafi and Bashar Al Assad. It is adding insult to the injury for the victims who died and may die at their hands and their loved ones who will have to deal with their loss. It is one more instance that shows how some liberal fanatics are absolutely out of touch with reality. You cannot reason with mass murderers or lend them any legitimacy, only thing they need is to be crushed under the unwavering hand of justice.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Backchannels/2011/0701/Mr.-Kucinich-goes-to-Damascus



Edited by eventhorizon - 02 Jul 2011 at 06:01
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Originally posted by eventhorizon eventhorizon wrote:

I hope like all sensible people that nothing will emerge from the field of genetics that will demolish this established axiom of equality, but I worry what will happen if something is found, that is why I mention that there may be a real scramble and mad rush to get "superior genes".


There is no question there are superior genes. The problem is the belief that a group of people monopolize all the "good genes" and other group has all the "bad or loser genes".

Once in a while you find some persons that are extraordinary. So much we call them genious... Well, perhaps they are doing some genetic cheating, and it would be interesting to find out what genes or brain wiring is helping them.

But please don't forget some forms of geniality are abnormal. For instance, some people with mental deffects sometimes had extraordinary skills.

Now, if everybody around us had an IQ of 260 (or whatever) who is going to do the cleaning, who is going to work in the manufacturing plants or prepare the next report?

Originally posted by eventhorizon eventhorizon wrote:


Genetic mutation from the time of initial migration from Africa, is it only limited to superficial attributes like skin and eye color, or is there more fundamental changes that happened in brain functioning for example. Modern man went out of Africa around 60,000 years ago, but then older cousins remained in Africa. Also there are species such as Neanderthal, Pekinensis etc., that traveled out 1-2 millions years ago, who may have mingled with modern man. So there are many questions, not all of them have been answered yet.


As far as it is known, all human groups have around the same distribution of smart and dumb people. The only difference is that most people in the world have had no chance to get an education.
To be a genious, it helps to have money, connections and live close to Cambridge.






Edited by pinguin - 02 Jul 2011 at 12:08
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2011 at 11:47
There is no question that there are variations within a group, the question that I posed was about regional variations due to evolutionary adaptation to climate or perhaps due to mixing with other related species such as Neanderthal, Pekinensis etc.

Education for all is important and necessary and nutrition as well I suppose, and that goes for rich countries as well like the US, where a large portion is surviving on a relatively poor diet of canned and processed food leading to disease like diabetes, cancer etc.

So even rich nations suffer from these same problems like poor nations, lack of proper education (sufficient to become aware) and nutrition (to avoid becoming obese and sick). Despite having the resources, the public is misinformed, apathetic, clueless and radar less. I don't blame them, the propaganda machine is very strong, it is impossible to cut through all the nonsense. It is a race it seems, which side will use technology to get the upper hand. The corporate masters with their clueless slavish and uneducated followers or the more relatively aware middle/working class. I myself was confused about Ron Paul and his honest sounding simple and plain talks.

But when all is said and done, it will be action on the ground, at the grass roots, that will matter. A group that can unite and create viable large systems will hold the upper hand. A group that cannot unite and cooperate will loose in the global competition and will be relegated to the 2nd tier. Having indigenous resources will not help, resource is more often a curse it seems.

I do not agree with Che Guevara and his Marxist dream for Latin America, but like Trotsky, he got one thing right that the region must unite, I think there is no alternative to that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2011 at 14:03
Originally posted by eventhorizon eventhorizon wrote:

There is no question that there are variations within a group, the question that I posed was about regional variations due to evolutionary adaptation to climate or perhaps due to mixing with other related species such as Neanderthal, Pekinensis etc.


Well, as far as I know, the as I know, the only documented case of interbreeding with other human species are the neanderthal in Europe and the Middle East. Read this article of the New York Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/07/science/07neanderthal.html

Now, given neanderthals had hundred of years more to addapt to European weather, if there was interbreeding, chances are that such "European" features like blondism, blue eyes and rossy skin come from the neanderthal side of the family tree Wink. Perhaps when Hitler thought on the "blond beast" he was actually thinking on neanderthals LOL.

Now, seriously, just look at the forefront of most human peoples all over the world and you will realize they are quite similar. Most of the human differences are simply in the physical parts of the body, rather than in the skull, and even less in what is inside the skull.

Yes, there are some differences in character among different peoples that has been noticed since long ago. For instance, Africans seems to be always happy and Natives are always melancolic. Japanese love simplicity and silence while Europeans usually go from explosions of happiness and noise to big depressions.  But are those differences inherited or cultural? And even if there is something genetic on it, the same differences aren't shown in abstract thinking.

I don't think those are genetic at all. You should see how different in character are germans in Latin America by comparison to germans in Germany.

Originally posted by eventhorizon eventhorizon wrote:


Education for all is important and necessary and nutrition as well I suppose, and that goes for rich countries as well like the US, where a large portion is surviving on a relatively poor diet of canned and processed food leading to disease like diabetes, cancer etc.

So even rich nations suffer from these same problems like poor nations, lack of proper education (sufficient to become aware) and nutrition (to avoid becoming obese and sick). Despite having the resources, the public is misinformed, apathetic, clueless and radar less. I don't blame them, the propaganda machine is very strong, it is impossible to cut through all the nonsense. It is a race it seems, which side will use technology to get the upper hand. The corporate masters with their clueless slavish and uneducated followers or the more relatively aware middle/working class. I myself was confused about Ron Paul and his honest sounding simple and plain talks.

But when all is said and done, it will be action on the ground, at the grass roots, that will matter. A group that can unite and create viable large systems will hold the upper hand. A group that cannot unite and cooperate will loose in the global competition and will be relegated to the 2nd tier. Having indigenous resources will not help, resource is more often a curse it seems.

I do not agree with Che Guevara and his Marxist dream for Latin America, but like Trotsky, he got one thing right that the region must unite, I think there is no alternative to that.


Grass root movement? Well, as far as I know will be very difficult that happened in a society dominated by money, where all the poors get in bread and circus. Hippies tried but they only succeed in bringing drug adiction in massive scale. Do you know that one of the first Colombian drug lord had a statue of John Lennon at his backyard? Imagine! Confused
By the way, Engels, Che Guevara, Castro, Allende or Subcomander Marcos weren't part of grassroot movements. They were intelectuals of the upper middle class with a messianic mission. That's something we should think about.



Edited by pinguin - 03 Jul 2011 at 14:03
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2011 at 16:46
That article talks about exactly what I was referring to. The story of Human evolution is incomplete as of now, indeed, it is possible that non-Africans are different due to that small genetic infusion from "non-human" Neanderthals, Pekinensis and/or others. "Blond Beast" to "Mongoloids" could all be due to this, it is a possibility, we just don't know yet.

But then genetic differences aside, environment also plays a role, which is why Americans of Euro origin are different in temperament than Europeans, whether they are in North or South America.

But none of this genetic difference is really a hindrance for coexistence. It is just that new scientific information may feed some of old monsters in the closet and may have real consequences for genetic shopping, just like Ultrasound technology is helping parents to choose the gender of their offspring.

"Upper middle class", "Bourgeoisie", "Aristocrats" (or should I say petty Aristocrats) of old days, are different labels for a section of society that is removed from the toiling masses, they traditionally had the time and luxury to think, they had always been the change agent and will continue to be in the future. Sometimes they get it wrong, Marxism is one such example.

Why grass root movements are easier to do than yester years, it is because new technology and tools are more available and widespread. Arab spring is just one example when people do what they need to do when their back is against the wall. It is just the first warning shot for a new era. What can I say, you aint seen nothing yet, there are more things to come. Organizing people, making them aware, coordinating between these groups regionally and globally will be key. It has already started, but it will mushroom I think. But then I could be wrong. Why I think it is possible because new technology makes the playing field more level, where masses can organize more easily, even if they do not have access to as much resources as the corporate masters.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jul 2011 at 01:52
Are you thinking that genetics is not equaly distributed among the world, and that rich people tend to monopolize the best genes?
If that really happen, then we are already living in the Huxley's "Brave New World".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2011 at 18:31
Huxley made some good predictions for his time:



But what we have today is not exactly what he predicted, although he got many things right.

I cannot declare that genetics is not equally distributed among different parts of the world, but it is possible that genetics has some influence on creating the lopsided world that we live in today. I also believe that whatever inter regional or intra regional differences in genetics there may be, it is not insurmountable to overcome these advantages with other tactics for gaining competitive edge, as long as people are creatively seeking solutions. But genetic shopping may become common place when it becomes technically feasible, as it will be an added tool in humanity's race to compete with each other. It may not be a bad thing after all, the chances of self destruction is much more with a dumbed down population than with a far more intelligent lot.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 2011 at 13:28
There is nothing more dangerous that underpayed people. It is not the mental retarded people who make revolutions and cut the heads of the nobles in the guillotine. It is the smart people that felt they haven't been treated fairly by society who commit the worst crimes and that look for revenge.
So, if you want to improve people intelligence, be ready for revolutions and violence.


Edited by pinguin - 08 Jul 2011 at 13:29
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jul 2011 at 19:29
Indeed, revolutions (hopefully not violent ones, but sometimes it becomes unavoidable) from within, that changes the internal dynamics and structure of a society and thus empowers a greater number, in most cases is a positive I believe, as long as the tumult does not descend into chaos and make an entity too weak to resist opportunistic outside invasions, which in the end has the potential to make revolution into a negative disaster.

A lower order of intelligence empowers greed and lust, but a little higher order would enable more people to see the bigger picture and thus avoid missteps, I would hope.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jul 2011 at 19:36
http://www.eastasia.at/vol4_1/article01.htm

ASEAN+2 (Japan and Korea) might be a viable plan in the future to balance hegemonic tendencies for both China and India in East Asia, in alliance with Oceania and the West.

Russia should forget its imperial past and join hands with EU, it is my hope and if it cannot manage far eastern Siberia, it should explore a joint management of this area with ASEAN+2 rather than allowing the Han Chinese to gain a foot hold in that space.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jul 2011 at 19:11
I forgot some factors, when the memory was refreshed it became clear that ASEAN+2 is not feasible for the time being, it is more like West+2, as these two nations, like lemming will fall from the precipice, following the light skinned people, but never look back.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jul 2011 at 19:15
Compiling the following posts from another thread:

When the US predominance in global power projection comes in competition with China's, which slowly but surely will happen, no matter how much both parties try to avoid it, they will become adversaries, Mearsheimer predicts as much and I agree with his views:


China's biggest weakness is its unsustainable and opaque one party system of government, which is prone to nepotism and idiosyncratic/whimsical leaders who are not accountable to the Chinese voting public, but only to a small group of their elite colleague in Communist Party, PLA, PLN and PLAF etc. US and others who do not want to see China rise too much too fast, will use this as a lever.

China and India are not benign powers, the term benign power is also kind of oxymoron. Powerful countries can never be benign, usually they will step on some toes while trying to secure their interest.

Asia is a very crowded space, there are billions of people in China and India, but around them in their neighborhood also there are billions of people in smaller countries. There are trade, transit, international water sharing, maritime space sharing and many other issues where China and India are already making neighbors nervous and jittery, it will only get worse with time.

To give some concrete examples, China, which is essentially a Han Chinese entity, have absorbed Inner Mongolia in itself, it has also occupied Tibet and Xinjiang and are engaged in demographic invasion in both of these regions to ensure that Han population there increases to more than 50-60% and eventually to 75-80%, to prevent a Soviet Union type breakup. Not only do they not share economic opportunities with the local indigenous population in Tibet and Xinjiang, they try to suppress their religious cultural activities and try to absorb them into the Han culture, which is a form of cultural genocide. As a result you have occasional outburst of riots and mayhem, because of the suppressed rage of the locals. 

If you ask the Chinese, what right do they have to occupy these regions, they mention that historically it was theirs, meaning under Yuan and Manchu dynasty rule, both of which were foreign dynasties at the time. To prevent calling them foreign, they claim them as one of their minority nations, which is true for Manchu, but not true for Mongols, who were able to save half of their country with the help of Soviet Russia. Even the area of Manchuria was a no go area for the Han during much of Manchu rule and later became a Japanese protectorate.

China is also damming up major international rivers in Tibet, such as Yarlung Tsangpo/Brahmaputra, Mekong etc., which provide sustenance to billions in downstream countries. India is damming up its shared rivers as well, at the detriment of downstream neighboring countries.

China has conflicts with Japan, Vietnam, Philippines and others about island ownership in South China Sea and Sea of Japan, there is no easy solution in sight.

China and India are able to get away with much, because they are large systems, they have competitive advantage and they are rising, so the balance of power is shifting to their favor, while the smaller neighbors cannot compete because of their size.

The situation in South America is different, the population versus resource pressure is much less than in Asia. So Brazil can afford to be a benign friendly giant.



Entity of Brazil is new, but India like China are old population centers, with a lot of history of warfare, kingdoms, empires, outside barbarian invasions, just like Europe.

In the period between 80 to 150 years ago, there was rivalry mainly between European powers, Germany can be called a new European power as well I think, as well as Italy, although they were not active in colonial ventures as early and as much as Spain, Portugal, Netherland, France and England.

USA with its huge land and increasing population, transplanted from Europe and freely intermixed, became the new great power, surpassing all other European powers in a divided, nationalistic and fragmented Europe, mainly because of its size of population and market, its single language and its cultural homogeneousness and its "dynamism", despite the setback during civil war, due in part to the slave dependent economy in the South. USA became a more effective large system than any other, which it proved with its performance in WW II.

Today China and India has essentially regrouped and are on the march to regain their past prominence and glory. The long term effect of the emergence of these two giants on the Eurasian land mass is fundamentally different than jockeying for power of the mainly European powers in the earlier era, except for Japan, it was essentially an intra European affair or more correctly intra Western affair.

The re-emergence of India and China has and will put further strain among its neighbors and will motivate them to form other large systems or unions to offset the coming imbalance.

The world is slowly going back to a status quo that it held between different regions before the Renaissance and its subsequent centuries, although the world today is far more populous and technologically advanced than those years in the past. What remains to be seen is what happens in the fragmented South East Asian, Middle East, Central Asian and Latin American region and the African continent.

My guess is that people will work to create their virtual large systems in these fragmented regions, even while nation states still exist, so that they can compete more effectively with status quo powers such as the West and emerging powers such as China and India.

But your main question about wars and conflicts and whether such calamities and catastrophes will happen while the world balance of power shifts, I think its entirely possible, because human nature has not changed much in a few centuries or decades, but the presence of MAD(Mutually Assured Destruction) and better communication and conflict management tools work as brakes on full scale and all out existential wars. It does not mean that full scale wars will not happen, there are as many or more short-sighted people on this planet today than there ever was in the past, but effective WMD's make full scale wars between Nuclear powers terribly expensive. So people are more careful about initiating wars and escalating them, specially when both parties have Nuclear weapons. This means that Nuclear weapons will get more wide spread and every region will have its latest and greatest array of Nuclear arsenals, pointing at rivals and "enemy" nations. It is also possible that WMD's in the future will be less dirty than than they are today and may be more effective at killing just human beings and not render the land unusable for generations, so victors can come in and make use of the land.

Although large scale wars, between large systems will be less common, there will continue to be insurgencies and low scale conflicts in many volatile regions that are not yet able to form effective large systems, as there is today.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jul 2011 at 08:56
Neanderthal strikes again with a picture that looks like the Governator:

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/07/neanderthal-human-mating/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Jul 2011 at 09:27
On irony and contradictions from none other than the inimitable George Galloway:

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/07/20117181848649939.html

Quote
........................

Such is the turmoil in London that respected commentators - on Monday for example Professor Roy Greenslade, the pre-eminent media pundit - are calling on Cameron's deputy Nick Clegg to table a motion of no confidence in the PM.

Last week, that would have been a joke. Today it doesn't seem so funny, or unlikely.

I declare an interest. I was one of the first people to be informed by Scotland Yard - London's Metropolitan Police - that my phone was being hacked by a private investigator working for Mr Murdoch. They visited me in my office in parliament and told me this, so I began a legal action which is set to come before the courts in December.

It didn't surprise me all that much in the light of my role as a leader of Britain's anti-war movement, a champion of the Palestinian cause for over 35 years, and a defender of Muslims both at home and abroad. Even Mr Murdoch wouldn't dispute the fact that these are causes far from his own heart. This throws up a contradiction now coming more clearly into focus. 

Prince Walid bin Talal bin Abdelaziz Al-Saud, the second biggest shareholder in News Corporation after Murdoch, recently gave an interview, on his yacht, to the BBC flagship programme Newsnight. The Saudi prince declared himself "a good friend" of Rupert Murdoch and his son James Murdoch (probably the next executive to be charged by the police in the scandal).

He defended both men briskly, but in doing so drew attention to the fact that he is the second biggest shareholder in the Murdoch empire, and that the Murdochs were major shareholders in his own Rotana media empire in the Middle East.

An unholy alliance, surely? Mr Murdoch is the co-owner, with Prince Walid, of Fox News - one of the most virulently anti-Muslim television stations in the world. The station gives a megaphone to the likes of Glenn Beck, Bill O'Reilly and Sarah Palin. In the US, Fox's role was to throw gallons of petrol on the flames Islamophobia which were leading to the burning of the Holy Quran by vigilantes.

Then there is the so-called "Ground Zero Mosque" controversy. The planned building was, of course, not at Ground Zero. It was not a mosque but an Islamic centre. The centre was partially funded by Prince Walid, the co-owner with Murdoch of Islamophobic media fire-raisers including Fox News and the New York Post.

Prince Walid it will be recalled was roundly insulted by the government of New York City when they returned the cheque he donated to the victims of the 9/11 attacks. A glutton for punishment no doubt.

Murdoch's newspapers in Britain are little better than their US-counterparts and include photographs and sexualised images which would never see the light of day in Riyadh, the Saudi capital. As a whole it is safe to say that Murdoch's nearly 200 newspapers - and his television stations in so far as he can compel the latter which are more tightly regulated - are bastions of fanatically pro-Israel, anti-Muslim bigotry.

Yet they are co-owned by a member of the Saudi Royal family who not only approves of these practices, but regards the mogul Murdoch as his "good friend".


Murdoch's plans to take 100 per cent ownership of British Sky Broadcasting now lie in ruins like Ozymandias's broken statue. Aged 80, he may, at the pace we are moving, be ousted by his own shareholders before long.

His dream of a Sky Arabia, however, remains a clear and present danger. Like the tobacco manufacturers, the more they are run out of towns in the west the more they concentrate on selling their addictive poison in the east. NewsCorp, with Prince Walid, may be sailing your way. Beware of pirates ye Arabs.

George Galloway is a British politician, author, journalist and broadcaster who was a Member of Parliament in the UK from 1987 to 2010.

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http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2011/07/what-did-red-haired-neanderthals-look-like/

"Recent African origin of modern humans" is now officially on its way to the dust bin of history:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recent_African_origin_of_modern_humans

and in comes the newer more nuanced "Multiregional origin of modern humans hypothesis":

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiregional_origin_of_modern_humans

It also means that finally racists of the world will have new ammunition in their hand for racism against Sub-saharan Africans and establish new theories why they never had large empires and never will be able to handle their own affairs with some degree of competency even with an African Union run by them. Perhaps that racism will then extend to all dark skinned people of the world, although all dark skinned people except for Sub-saharan Africans, including Australian aborigines, were found to have Neanderthal genes.



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The following has been posted before, please disregard.

Note to the admin staff, as before I will collect some of my posts in other threads here, as they are relevant to this topic as well.

====================================================
Sino US dance

A nation is like an army, economy is the field of war in times of peace. A bigger nation, even if its malnourished like that of India, or a China even if its not as well equipped like that of the US, can change with time and be a threat. Because the size of the Army always matter in war.

Lets look at the size of the countries of the world:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population

Now if you look at this list, there are only two countries bigger than the US, China and India, both around the same size in population and both around 4 times the size of the US.

Eu may become a country in the future, so it is premature to talk about it now. Even if it becomes a country, even if it includes Russia, it would still be half the size of China or India, in population.

Whenever a developed country like the US, Germany or Israel dances with a big country like China or India, it becomes net loss for the countries with higher income and net gain for the countries with lower income, until the differences in income become smaller and smaller.

Why should the US or EU help in the making of their own strategic competitors and then be defeated by these competitors, and is there a way to avoid it? I have struggled with this question for a long time.

I finally came to the conclusion that people simply fail to see the big picture and fail to consider the options available. No one is bothered to think in this kind of strategic terms, because the country itself (and its more or less true for EU as well, but to a lesser extent) and its political class is serving the billionaires and their goals of earning more billions for their corporations. The nature of the corporation is to maximize profit, if a country is defeated in the process, it is apparently not their concern.

But when a country or set of countries are defeated, then the eco systems that helped these companies succeed, are compromised fatally, because these corporations and their share holders are usually controlled by a particular country, so although there are multi-national corporations, ultimately all corporations are national and they are one of the vital strategic weapons of a nation that determines their rise or fall. I will list some companies and their nationality, all of which are MNC's:

Toyota    Japanese
Samsung   Korean
Huawei    Chinese
Reliance  Indian
Rover-Tata Indian
Jaguar-Tata Indian
Cisco     US
Intel     US
Oracle    US
Microsoft US
Boeing    US
Airbus    EU
Daimler   Germany
BMW       Germany

Why is size so important, many reasons, economies of scale, size of market, political stability, pool of extra-ordinary talent (leaders) etc. Also please consider why US and Soviet Union became two competing superpowers after WW II, the other colonial powers were not just devastated internally, they also lost their colonial possessions or were in the process of doing so, loosing the advantage of size, which left US and Soviet Union the two greatest countries in population. China and India just came out of colonial and imperial domination and their journey had just started as independent entities.

So it was the right strategy for the US to dance with Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, South East Asian countries like Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, some became spectacular successes, like Japan and then S Korea and Taiwan, but none could eclipse the US.

US engaged with China to defeat the Soviet threat, but it should have disengaged as soon as Soviet Union fell apart in early 1990's.

So the club of developed countries should disengage China now and they should never engage India, no matter how much the corporations salivate for the big markets there. The US also must reach an agreement with EU, Oceania, Japan, S Korea and Israel (who has a habit of selling restricted technology) not to engage China or India. It does not have to be total disengagement, but anything that can be done somewhere else, should be done there, so that their growth level is brought down from 8-10% to 4-5%, at par or less than other smaller countries which are to be engaged.

Instead of engaging bigger nations such as China or India, the developed countries should engage smaller nations from the list who appear below the US. There are plenty of nations with cheaper labor than China in this list to produce what US, EU, Oceania and Israel need, plenty of nations that can provide the back end services cheaper or better than India. This engagement also means that people in these countries will stay where they are and not migrate as much to the developed countries.

There are only few nations in this world that already has the technology, highly developed man power and industrial infrastructure, these must have an agreement and understanding to ensure a stable order for the future of the world.

Thomas Friedman, Ayn Rand and their promoted free market is a recipe for disaster. We know and can see what they bring. We need to control the outcome of our trade and our engagement.

These two nations which are bigger in size  than the US, are a threat not just for the US, but for Japan, Korean peninsula, South East Asia, every nation that are around them or even far away from them in Africa or South America.

Europe has been the colonial master of the planet, the planet does not need another two new neo-colonial masters. Their relative size is a threat that cannot be met by any other way than disengagement, as their size provide them with competitive advantage, which is a threat for all other countries in the world, not just the US, EU, Oceania, Japan, Korean peninsula.

When all other countries reach a sufficient momentum and parity in competitive advantage and can be grouped together in some form or fashion, to counter balance these two large countries, only then they should be engaged again, by the developed countries, so that they can develop and progress without being a threat for other smaller nations in the globe.

I am a small man and just presented some big ideas, please forgive my impudence. Specially I ask forgiveness to people of China and India with whom I have no enmity, who are but fellow human beings. But power imbalance is a recipe for chaos and destruction which should be avoided, and I prefer an orderly evolution of humanity, which is my motivation in presenting these ideas.

================================================
Debt ceiling debate

pikeshot, that is a very good post, the earlier rant was not bad either. I admit I was also ignorant, only vaguely aware and apathetic. I was even supporting Ron Paul at some point, I still have Ron Paul's plastic posters stashed away, that I put up in my front yard, I am ashamed to say. He makes some sensible talk with closing the bases, small govt., less waste and talking against federal reserve and fiat currrency, I think he is sincere and he believes in what he says, but Ayn Rand and Austrian Economics that he follows does not work, its a lie. What opened my eyes was a radio station called kpfk (http://www.kpfk.org), which I listen to during my drive to work and back. They have a lot of liberal and antiwar nonsense, but the way they connect the dots about the American corporations waging a war on American voting public, it is in one word, sublime. Two people I remember more than the rest, are Amy Goodman of Democracy Now and Ian Masters of Background Briefing.

The story goes like this, if I remember correctly, that the greedy Robber Barons who caused the great depression, lost big time to the progressives who introduced the New Deal:

Ever since, US corporations have been planning and plotting how to turn it all back to their advantage again. Some GE Board Directors I think started some conservative think tanks and they found in Reagan a good talker. Reagan originally a democrat and head of the screen actors guild, devolved and got indoctrinated to a hard core conservative while working for GE theater TV show as a well paid talk show host:

Quote For Ronald Reagan, he grew up in one of these small towns in northern Illinois, 12 miles from where I grew up. However, it took a while for those Conservative values to take hold in Reagan. Many people forget that Reagan was originally a Democrat in the 1940s and 1950s. As head of the Screen Actors Guild, Reagan, while a staunch anti-communist, was quite liberal. Things for Reagan changed in the early 1950s. The first event that influenced his shift from the left to the right occurred when Reagan would meet, and marry, actress Nancy Davis. Combined with Reagan’s work for the General Electric Theater TV show, Reagan shifted to the right, an almost libertarian point of view. As part of his duties as host of the show, Reagan would travel across the country and met people at GE plants across America. It was during those tours meeting the middle class that his philosophy began to shift to less government intrusion and lower taxes. In the early 1950s, the tax rate for Americans earning $10,000/year was at 38% (which very few did – the minimum wage was not even a $1/hour). For 8 years, Reagan work for GE actually turned into a political apprenticeship of sorts.

Reagan’s conservative philosophy was rooted in the words of John Winthrop. The famous City” on Hill” from the 1600s defined Reagan’s vision, and version, of conservatism and of America.

“for wee must Consider that wee shall be as a Citty upon a Hill, the eies of all people are uppon us”

When Reagan finally comes to power, charming the public with his plain talk and family values, the onslaught starts in earnest and all that was achieved to reign in the greedy corporations in the New Deal era was lost in last 30 years, so now we are back to square one, that is at the Rober Baron era before the great depression.

I think it is quite clear that corporations rising out of the US and getting fat on the sweat of American worker, has been on a treasonous path, using new media technology like the TV and now the internet effectively, to do things against US National interest. They have not only bought all the politicians (George Carlin: bought and paid for), but now has the majority of SCOTUS in their pocket.

And I agree that the rot and contagion has crossed the pond to the EU, greed is contagious, although EU population is a little more resistant and little more aware and not so easily fooled by the American voting public, I think.

The fundamental problem I believe has nothing to do with liberal or conservative dichotomy, specially on social issues, those are just diversions, the real issue I believe is the nature of corporations and specifically multinational corporations, are they bound by any laws to protect national interest, I think not, not at this point. In their current incarnations, it is perfectly legal for them to hurt US national interest, examples:

- investing in Chinese manufacturing sector, and concentrating all manufacturing in one command and control economy for maximization of profit, but creating a future strategic competitor and threat, which will be immensely costly not just for the US but for its neighbors and the world in general
- investing in Indian software and service sector, and contributing to a rising India, with the same general effect, but to a lesser extent
- whereas not investing as much in high tech capital goods manufacturing items, which Germany is doing and getting fabulous export orders, as a result
- not paying a fair share of carrying the tax burden (reduced from 90-70% to around 15% max) to maintain greater equity of wealth and a more creative and vibrant middle class, which is usually represented by healthy labor unions, as they are in Germany, where they even have positions in board of directors. A healthy, well paid, creative/innovative and empowered work force is the fighting force of the economic war, the foot soldier that make the difference
- encouraging hugely expensive wars for the benefit of Military Industrial complex, and as Dr. G points out, doing a double whammy at the same time by making sure that taxation is not as high as the usual level of war time economy
- using media to run an incessant propaganda to falsely polarize the voting public with non-issues such as the debt-ceiling and subverting the entire political class and the judicial community with money and incentives to drive their own agenda

If the corporations are not strategic weapons like they were for Japanese Zaibatsu's and Korean Chaebol's and probably still are for those two countries, though not as overt, in my opinion, a nation will lose the real mega war without end, which is the economic war. So the corporations can be rightly accused of subversion and treason and called traitors. That is how I see it, looking through my hyper simplification lense. Now there is no conspiracy, but it just works out this way because of a design flaw in the corporations. The corporate motto, instead of maximizing share holder profit, should be to further national interest, which is followed by most Asian corporations and perhaps some European ones like those of Germany, and definitely by Chinese ones like Huawei and Indian ones like Reliance and Tata. Milton Friedman's and Ayn Rand's of the world will disagree, but then they are the ones who brought the US to where it is today. Sorry for so many gross oversimplifications, which I have a penchant for it seems.

And about printing money, of course the US will do it if there is a need. With Euro crashing, the US and its greenback has the world by its unmentionables, it seems. The Chinese, Japanese and other bond/debt holders will not like it a bit, they will complain, may be they will start using dollar less and less and start using their own currencies a bit more, and it will drive home the point, the US still call the shots on this planet. Yes, its highway robbery, but can anyone do anything about it, I think not, because that is the nature of things as they are. Who said life is fair.

====================================

This is because the usual suspects have set up both parties in a way that there is gonna be some fake fights between them like the one we just witnessed, but either way they will get their way. I will talk about the root of this problem and some possible way out in another thread.

The more I see this, the more respect I have for George Carlin, he was definitely the man.

Walking to and fro and mumbling to self "Bought and paid for", "Bought and paid for",........

 



Edited by eventhorizon - 03 Aug 2011 at 10:38
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The following has been posted before, please disregard.

Turkish generals resigned

The anguish of a vanquished empire. As Ottoman slowly started falling behind other European powers, it tried to implement various reforms, but none was successful to reverse the trend. To stem the negative effect of rising nationalism within the borders of Ottoman empire, Secularism was tried in different times:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secularism_in_Turkey
Ata-Turk’s reforms established Turkish nationalism and Secularism as the founding principle of the Turkish state. After Kemal’s death, the armed forces awarded itself with the responsibility to ensure the continuation of these principles. As was described in posts above, over time something called the Deep State emerged:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_state
Ergenekon was a part of this Deep state.

It is also important to note the role the Armed forces played in Turkish politics with various coups and threats:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Armed_Forces

In these secret groups, illicit money making activities such as drug trafficking, gambling, money laundering etc. were common.

In Ata-Turks new Turkey, religion Islam was not abolished, but controlled by the govt. and kept under tight leash. One force that emerged from this controlled environment was the Gulen movement along with some political parties which were more sympathetic to Islam. Both of these strains emerged from the more pious rural and newly urbanized constituents, who were outside of the old urban secular van guards:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%BClen_movement
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_and_Development_Party_%28Turkey%29

After many fits and starts the populist Islamic leaning parties have consolidated under AKP and now seem to dominate Turkish politics and Fetullah Gulen, although exiled to the US, together with their social conservative political ally AKP, now exert increasing influence on Turkish politics and economy. Essentially these two forces are in the process of dismantling their rival the deep state, ergenekon etc. The defeat of the deep state does not however mean that secularism and its supporters are becoming a minority. Mainstream non religious secular parties are still a powerful and viable opposition. All major political parties including AKP believe in the separation of Church/Mosque and state, it is just that the new Islam leaning parties are more tolerant of Islamic expressions and sympathetic to them which they justify as freedom of religion, as opposed to the earlier allergic reaction to anything related to Islam which they claim was akin to militant secularism. This course correction is described here:
http://www.thewashingtonreview.org/articles/islam-ottoman-legacy-and-politics-in-turkey-an-axis-shift.html

The latest incident is an attempt to embarrass the AKP govt. and an attempt to create a crisis, noting that out 3 generals who resigned, two were due to retire next week in the national conference and meeting presided by the Prime Minister where Turkish Army promotions are decided. As Al Jassas already mentioned, Erdogan refused promotion for the accused officers in the Ergenekon case, till the verdicts were reached, which prompted this attempted pseudo crisis. In earlier days, it would be a coup to protect “Secularism”, but now it results in resignation, which shows that the days of Armed forces control and supremacy is over in Turkey.

Here is a quote from a young UK expat living in Turkey, married to a Turkish man:

Quote In Özdere, there is a holiday resort for all the generals, corporates etc of the army's and every weekend it is very difficult to drive past as the roads are full of cars and I mean big posh expensive cars. It took me a while to work out what this holiday park was as its not open to public but its always busy. When I asked xxx he told me it was for the army generals and things then he added a comment that really surprised me as I have never heard him side with AK Party or go against the army but he said that there are too many generals in Turkey lounging around taking all the money while the real soldiers are out there risking their lives every day. So maybe this is a good thing that some of the generals have stepped down and the numbers are being cut but as xxx said only time will tell.


There are two major newspaper/media organizations in Turkey, Zaman is related to Gulen movement whereas Hurriyet is more associated with the secular old guard.

And if I may refer to my little theory, this is one more example of the positive consequences of maintaining Historical Continuity and negative effects of disruption.



Edited by eventhorizon - 03 Aug 2011 at 10:39
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2011 at 08:12
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2011/08/05/the_alec_wars_escalate.html
The ALEC Wars Escalate
By David Weigel
Posted Friday, Aug. 5, 2011, at 3:03 PM EDT

Quote Starting in 2010, the progressive moment has poured more and more resources into understanding and publishing the facts about heretofore-obscure conservative groups. The religious right? That's so 2007. The mission now is exposing the connections of Koch Industries, the origins of libertarian legislation in various unglamorous think tanks, and the corporate sponsors who make it possible. Why now? There are plenty of reasons, and plenty of triggers that no one expected (like Ian Murphy's prank "David Koch" call in Wisconsin). The result: More and more info, packaged for maximum dramatic purpose, about how the think tanks work.

The villain of the last few months is the American Legislative Exchange Council. The Center for Media and Democracy, a lefty think tank in Wisconsin, started publishing ALEC's dummy legislation -- usually available to legislators for free, or non-legislator members for quite a lot of money -- on a catch-all Wiki site. Until last year, it was pretty easy for any media to get access to ALEC conferences to find out what the cutting edge of libertarian thinking was, or scan the program and see who was funding it. ThinkProgress tried to get into this month's conference. No dice.

The TP bloggers publish the conference's lists of sponsors anyway, and really, I don't see the point of ALEC panicking at the sight of flipcams. The big revelation here is that BP is one of the $100,000 donors behind this conference -- in New Orleans! Ironic, but unsurprising. Check out the GOP's list of "jobs bills" being held up by Democrats. Most of the bills that promise immediate job growth are energy deregulation plans, offshore leasing plans, etc. ALEC's funders, priorities and ideas, are totally predictable. The right's succeeded in what they thought the left was doing -- filling brain trusts that schlep legislation to capitols as soon as their candidates win. All that ALEC does by pushing ThinkProgress around is add a veil of secrecy to something we deserve to know.


Comments:

andy80
So TP can't get into their super secret treehouse meeting, meh.
OT, but what bothers me more is the blatant lack of respect for people's intelligence here. Just adding "jobs-creating" in front of whatever legislation you want to push doesn't cut it. But many people only see the headlines, so we end up with jobs-creating energy deregulation, jobs-creating tax cuts, jobs-killing health care...
Can we get some actual "job-creating" job creation bills first? Actually, I'm just expecting for someone to come out any day now and say jobs-creating slavery.

James H
What we should look at here is not necessarily where the money is coming from, but how much money is in play. If this much money can be shook loose to do this much damage, then we should really, really look at the tax code. My conservative friends will throw George Soros into this mix. Great! I agree!
Let's take a look at the Koch Brothers, BP, George Soros, and the other leeches on society for some real "revenue enhancement." And if that drives them out of the country, that would likely be a plus.


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