MH-17

It's a disgusting episode, but one must ad some culpability to the airlines. Many (not all) decided to keep flying over a war zone, one in which a couple of Ukrainian planes had been shot down, by (predictably) low skilled operators with high tech equipment. This is negligence. Malaysian Airlines has since announced a detour around Ukraine. Via Syrian airspace. I'm not kidding.

Captain Vancouver wrote: It's a disgusting episode, but one must ad some culpability to the airlines. Many (not all) decided to keep flying over a war zone, one in which a couple of Ukrainian planes had been shot down, by (predictably) low skilled operators with high tech equipment. This is negligence. Malaysian Airlines has since announced a detour around Ukraine. Via Syrian airspace. I'm not kidding.

CV wrote: Many (not all) decided to keep flying over a war zone, one in which a couple of Ukrainian planes had been shot down, by (predictably) low skilled operators with high tech equipment. This is negligence. Malaysian Airlines has since announced a detour around Ukraine. Via Syrian airspace. I'm not kidding.

Maybe you are not kidding but you are wrong.
All airlines including Malaysia are now flying over Turkey and Iran. The MH16 flight path is: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS16

(I'm not sure if that website changes during the day as the flight progresses. If you can't see it they may have changed.)

Also all airlines were flying over Eastern Ukraine, not just Malaysia. Malaysian Airlines is IMO one of the best airlines in the world.

Arlington wrote: All true Toyo but a significant portion of the blame must be laid at the feet of the current US Admin. It's indecisive and appeasement intended foreign policy towards the Russians is well documented. I neither expect the NATO or EU nations to do anything. Why should they? When the most recent history of the region has always included decisive US response and leadership. None of which, for at least the next two years, is forthcoming.

Because this is a history forum, I think it's important to remember the history and present of the Ukraine before commenting too much.

Kiev is the birthplace of Russian culture and the Russian nation. The Kiev Rus were destroyed by the Mongol invasions and the frontier cities in the far north such as Tver, Moscow, and Novgorod were left the rebuild the Russian nation. Eventually Moscow became the premier Russian city and the most powerful Duchy in the region. They re-took Kiev from the Poles over 400 years ago. Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea were never a part of Poland or ruled from Kiev. They were part of the Crimean Khanate and the Golden Horde. The Ottoman Empire supporting the Crimean Tartars constantly fought against Russian expansion in the eastern steppe but eventually lost about 250 years ago. Far western Ukraine (Lviv/Lvov) was taken by the Russians in the Holocaust from Poland. It was forcably Ukrainianised/Russianised in the 1940s and 50s.

The word Ukraine was only invented about 120 years ago. It was invented as an administrative region by the Soviets. Crimea and Eastern Ukrain was added to that administrative region in the 1950s and until 1991 a Ukrainian was no less Russian than a Californian is American. Until the orange revolution in 2005 the Ukrainian government was staunchly pro-Russian, that revolution then failed at the next election and they again had a pro-russian government until this year when the elected government was again overthrown. The overthrow of that government prompted the revolts across Ukraine including the successful ones in Crimea and Donetsk.

The areas the areas that have seen the biggest pro-Russian revolts are the areas that were part of the Crimean Khanate and the Ottoman Empire. These are areas that have never been ruled nor identified with Kiev, they were taken for the Russian people by the Moscovites from the Tartars. Furthermore Crimea has been Russia's principle naval base for over 200 years. It will be full of the sons & daughters of the Russian Navy. The areas that have been the most anti-Russian (Lviv) are arguably actually parts of Poland that were taken in 1939.

So, you should be able to conclude several things from this:
1) It is surprising that Putin has allowed the Ukraine to leave Russia without a fight.
2) It is surprising that Putin has no done more to help the people of Donetsk and has not sent in Russian troops.
3) It is unreasonable to expect the Moscovites to leave the Kiev Rus to the west.
4) Any other Russian leader would start a nuclear war over this.
5) Obama's "indecisive and appeasement intended foreign policy towards the Russians" has done what no other power has done since the Mongols - pulled portions of the Russian motherland out of Moscovite control.
6) It is reasonable to expect the Moscovites will want Kiev back.
7) It is reasonable to expect the Moscovites would give up Lviv.
8) Trying to take Ukraine out of Russia is like trying to take New England out of the USA

Edited by Omar al Hashim - 23 Jul 2014 at 20:11

Omar al Hashim wrote: CV wrote: Many (not all) decided to keep flying over a war zone, one in which a couple of Ukrainian planes had been shot down, by (predictably) low skilled operators with high tech equipment. This is negligence. Malaysian Airlines has since announced a detour around Ukraine. Via Syrian airspace. I'm not kidding. Maybe you are not kidding but you are wrong. All airlines including Malaysia are now flying over Turkey and Iran. The MH16 flight path is: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS16 (I'm not sure if that website changes during the day as the flight progresses. If you can't see it they may have changed.) Also all airlines were flying over Eastern Ukraine, not just Malaysia. Malaysian Airlines is IMO one of the best airlines in the world.

toyo wrote: But the Ukraine is a sovereign nation, and as such, whether you like or not, whether Putin likes it or not, the Ukranian people are entitled to self determination. If in fact the majority of the Ukranian people want the Crimea back under Russian control, so be it. That an overall ethnic minority of Russians want Crimea back as a part of Russia, doesn't really count. It would be the same if some of the people in, for example, Boston wanted to succeed and become a province of the UK-and the UK provided them with training, arms and materiel to assist their revolt.

That's a good analogy. It would be exactly if some of the people in, say Boston, wanted to become a provence of the UK and the UK backed them. Let's call these people Canadians.

Self determination is the best way of resolving territorial disputes without resorting to war, yet the trick with self determination is that you have to respect which ever way the people choose, even if it's not your side. Crimea and Donetsk have voted to be in Russia.

The Soviets deliberately divided the SSRs to make them easy to control. They did not divide them according to ethnic, geographic or any other sensible divisions. That's why the central asian states are funny shapes, and that's why Ukraine is so big. Ukraine is at least 4 regions. Moldova, the Crimean Khanate, parts of Poland, and the Kiev region.
The people in the former Crimean Khanate from Odessa to Kharkov have been pro-Moscow, voted for pro-Moscow parties and seen pro-Moscow unrest. The people in the bit that's basically Poland have been staunchly anti-Moscow, and most of the people in the Kiev region, even as far as Dnepropetrovsk have been generally anti-Moscow. I don't know what's happening in the Moldovian bit. I'm guessing if they have a choice they'd like to be in Moldovia or Romania.

There is a significant regional divide in Ukraine and there is huge interference from both Russia and the west. Self-determination would be great but I don't think either side is willing to do it.

CV wrote: The MH flight over Syria was all over the media, and in at least one report admitted to by the airline. This may well have been changed, and not too surprisingly if so, due to the media scrutiny. It is true that airlines fly regularly over conflict zones. However each flight must (or certainly should) be appraised for safety given current conditions. Some, including BA I believe, chose not to fly over Ukraine. It was crazy for any airline to route air traffic over Ukraine after several military planes were shot down, one reportedly from 21,000 ft.

I am not aware of any change, I didn't hear anything about that. There's a lot of misinformation and speculation about this story around.
It's easy to say in hindsight that they shouldn't have been flying there but they were following established proceedure and following all safety guidelines.

Aggressive Stalinist economic policies in the '30s caused many deaths in the region, which apparently didn't endear Moscow to the population. When Germany invaded in '41, there were enough in the country to see this as a plus, and many joined a militia that supported Germany against the Soviets.

Stalin killed a lot of people not just in Ukraine. In fact if you haven't been masacarred by the Moscovites at some point in the last 500 years you are doing pretty well.
While it is a well known fact that the Soviets and Germans combined to invade Poland in 1939 it is not that well known that the Poles never got the bits the Soviets took back. They are now Western Ukraine and Western Belarus. At the end of WW2 the Russians wouldn't give up what they took in 1939 and as a result the whole of Poland was shifted a couple of hundred kilometers westward. Silsia, Pomerania and Prussia were ethnically cleansed of Germans and given to the Poles, while Lviv, Vilnius, Brest were ethnically cleansed of Poles and Jews and given to the Russians. I am not aware of how many Poles walked out of a catholic church and into an orthodox one to avoid being ethnically cleansed but I suspect this is a big reason why western ukraine is not pro moscow.

Recent opinion polls I've seen in the media show pretty clearly a desire for independence, and surprisingly even a number of ethnic Russians seem to share this view.

I have seen the same but I am not sure how far you can trust polls in this situation

Edited by Omar al Hashim - 24 Jul 2014 at 22:38