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Sekigahara

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Kirghiz View Drop Down
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    Posted: 06 Mar 2011 at 17:33
This battle was one of the most important battle in Japanese history, and it paved the way for Tokugawa shogunate which last until 1868. The war tactics and policy behind the battle sences has been discussed over and over. What do you think would happen if Tokugawa had lost this battle? could be another riot or warring era or Toyotomi clan could rule Japan?

Edited by Kirghiz - 07 Mar 2011 at 20:55
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Omar al Hashim View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Omar al Hashim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 2011 at 05:08
People grow tired of war eventually and let someone win. Japan was due for a dynasty.
 
Other than that, I'm afriad I can't really contribute my knowledge is only superficial for that point in space-time!
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Shingen The Ruler View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shingen The Ruler Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 2011 at 16:14
Just to clarify, it should be Sekigahara.

Anyway, it's hard to say what would have happened if the Eastern Army (Tokugawa forces) had lost, which was a very real possibility until the defection of Kobayakawa Hideaki.

Personally, I think Toyotomi Hideyori would have come into his own and continued the regime that was established by his father. That is, of course, if Ieyasu was not allowed to live after being defeated. If the leaders of the Western forces would have actually spared Ieyasu's life for some strange reason, I can see Ieyasu, being the pragmatic and patient man that he was, biding his time and waiting for the next opportunity to challenge the Toyotomi.

Then again, if there was no Osaka siege in 1615/1616, I think Hideyori would have established his rule almost without question.

As you can see, it's very complicated and headache-inducing to even think about the what-if scenarios.Wacko
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Kirghiz View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kirghiz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 2011 at 19:48
I know that. It is shameful to see in spit of existence of powerful clans such as Takeda, Mori and Uesugi, Tokugawa took the power. I was always amazed with the stories of Takeda Shingen and Uesugi Kenshin encounters. They both were charismatic leaders which defeated Nobunaga and Tokugawa forces in battle soundly.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shingen The Ruler Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 2011 at 20:26
Originally posted by Kirghiz Kirghiz wrote:

I know that. It is shameful to see in spit of existence of powerful clans such as Takeda, Mori and Uesugi, Tokugawa took the power. I was always amazed with the stories of Takeda Shingen and Uesugi Kenshin encounters. They both were charismatic leaders which defeated Nobunaga and Tokugawa forces in battle soundly.


Well, both Shingen and Kenshin were long dead before Sekigahara.

The Takeda clan was a total non factor since Katsuyori's defeat at Nagashino in 1575 and the Uesugi were significantly hindered after the Otate no Ran. Kagekatsu was not the same leader that Kenshin was.
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Kirghiz View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kirghiz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2011 at 04:53
What about Mori clan. I checked it again and you are right about Takeda clan. However Kagekatsu (Uesugi Kenshin adopted son) was not a useless leader and Uesugi clan had many notable figures among them that could push back Ieyaso forces to their HQ in edo castle. Specially when they turn back to suppress the western Army. That was the prime time if Uesugi could attack the Ieyaso forces from back.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shingen The Ruler Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2011 at 19:20
Originally posted by Kirghiz Kirghiz wrote:

What about Mori clan. I checked it again and you are right about Takeda clan. However Kagekatsu (Uesugi Kenshin adopted son) was not a useless leader and Uesugi clan had many notable figures among them that could push back Ieyaso forces to their HQ in edo castle. Specially when they turn back to suppress the western Army. That was the prime time if Uesugi could attack the Ieyaso forces from back.


The Mori clan were still a major family at the time. In fact, it's been argued that if Mori Terumoto led the Western forces instead of Ishida Mitsunari, the outcome may have been different. It definitely would have been a more difficult decision for Kobayakawa Hideaki and Kikkawa Hiroie to change their allegiance to the Tokugawa side.

I never said Kagekatsu was a useless leader. He just was not as capable a commander as Kenshin. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make about Kagekatsu, however. He was a part of the Sekigahara campaign. His militaristic attitutde towards Ieyasu is what's said to have opened the campaign.

Edited by Shingen The Ruler - 27 May 2011 at 19:20
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Kirghiz View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kirghiz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2011 at 20:00
He was a part of campaign not the Sekigahara battle itself. Instead of attacking the weaker allies of Ieyasu. Uesugi could hold the weaker allies back and sent its main force to attack Ieyasu forces from the behind in Sekigahara. It made Ieyasu to fight in two fronts at Sekigahara.


Edited by Kirghiz - 27 May 2011 at 20:06
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Shingen The Ruler View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shingen The Ruler Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2011 at 21:33
Originally posted by Kirghiz Kirghiz wrote:

He was a part of campaign not the Sekigahara battle itself. Instead of attacking the weaker allies of Ieyasu. Uesugi could hold the weaker allies back and sent its main force to attack Ieyasu forces from the behind in Sekigahara. It made Ieyasu to fight in two fronts at Sekigahara.


I think the fact that Kagekatsu busied himself with the Date points to the fact that he was a less than capable general.

It's a big "if" to say that Kagekatsu's forces would have made any sort of difference anyway. I doubt they would have been capable of encircling the Eastern Army and attacking them from the rear. That's just my humble opinion, though.


Edited by Shingen The Ruler - 27 May 2011 at 21:34
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Kirghiz View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kirghiz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jun 2011 at 18:20
Originally posted by Shingen The Ruler Shingen The Ruler wrote:

Originally posted by Kirghiz Kirghiz wrote:

He was a part of campaign not the Sekigahara battle itself. Instead of attacking the weaker allies of Ieyasu. Uesugi could hold the weaker allies back and sent its main force to attack Ieyasu forces from the behind in Sekigahara. It made Ieyasu to fight in two fronts at Sekigahara.


I think the fact that Kagekatsu busied himself with the Date points to the fact that he was a less than capable general.

It's a big "if" to say that Kagekatsu's forces would have made any sort of difference anyway. I doubt they would have been capable of encircling the Eastern Army and attacking them from the rear. That's just my humble opinion, though.

Why do you think Uesugi could not encircle the eastern army. The eastern army was retreating toward south and south west; There was a perfect time right there. I wish Kenshin was alive and could show that greedy Ieyasu some good lessons.Smile  Shingen died some decades early as well. It is amazing or rather regretting when you need charismatic leaders in right time there are none available. Instead they have to fight over small provinces and weaken each other. I have always regretted when I see two great nations or people fight each other to the last drop of blood and then a weak and insignificant nation take the credit! that's a pity.



Edited by Kirghiz - 06 Jun 2011 at 18:30
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shingen The Ruler Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jun 2011 at 20:21
Originally posted by Kirghiz Kirghiz wrote:

Originally posted by Shingen The Ruler Shingen The Ruler wrote:

Originally posted by Kirghiz Kirghiz wrote:

He was a part of campaign not the Sekigahara battle itself. Instead of attacking the weaker allies of Ieyasu. Uesugi could hold the weaker allies back and sent its main force to attack Ieyasu forces from the behind in Sekigahara. It made Ieyasu to fight in two fronts at Sekigahara.


I think the fact that Kagekatsu busied himself with the Date points to the fact that he was a less than capable general.

It's a big "if" to say that Kagekatsu's forces would have made any sort of difference anyway. I doubt they would have been capable of encircling the Eastern Army and attacking them from the rear. That's just my humble opinion, though.

Why do you think Uesugi could not encircle the eastern army. The eastern army was retreating toward south and south west; There was a perfect time right there. I wish Kenshin was alive and could show that greedy Ieyasu some good lessons.Smile  Shingen died some decades early as well. It is amazing or rather regretting when you need charismatic leaders in right time there are none available. Instead they have to fight over small provinces and weaken each other. I have always regretted when I see two great nations or people fight each other to the last drop of blood and then a weak and insignificant nation take the credit! that's a pity.



Haha! Not a fan of Ieyasu, are we?

I know what you mean, though. As you can tell, I'm a huge fan of Shingen's. I personally think if he woduln't have died when he did, the unification process started by Oda Nobunaga would have been delayed for many years. We probably wouldn't have the reign of Toyotomi Hideyoshi or Tokugawa Ieyasu.

It's all speculation, though....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RollingWave Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jul 2011 at 10:05
It depends on what exactly happen in such a loss... a total defeat or a stalematish defeat are completely different things, just like if Oda Nobunaga hadn't actually died in Hongan-ji or if at least his heir didn't die as well the dynamic would be very different.

Still, it was clear that Japan was wheeling towards a new Shogunate, the wheel of fate the Oda Nobunaga began to turn was not about to be stopped. However the precise nature of how it oculd take form would remain highly questionable.

I think there's generally two type of situation of a Eastern defeat.

A. Ieysu somehow dies in the battle : This woud probably seal the Toyotomi's hold on Japan. however it remained a question of if other conspriators might have turned against them.

B. The battle was a fugly stalematish defeat for the east: I think then the Tokugawas would survive but might not be Shogun, however the Toyotomi's survival would still be in question, espeically if Ishida continue to run things the way he was .

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