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Soviet craft explode in North Korea

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    Posted: 08 Aug 2014 at 01:19
http://theweek.com/article/index/265873/north-koreas-military-is-falling-apart-mdash-is-kim-jong-uns-regime-next
Very coincidental or very badly conditioned?  Soviet military craft which require maintenance and replacement parts in North Korea are not getting the attention they deserve.  It caused fatal crashes to be experienced one after the other.

Is this the end of North Korea's military threat over South Korea?

I believe so.


Edited by literaryClarity - 08 Aug 2014 at 01:20
http://hwyst.hangzhou.com.cn/wmyzh/content/2013-10/09/content_4920423.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Arlington Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Aug 2014 at 06:32
I disagree. The threat remains as long as they receive political international support from the PRC. It remains as long as insufficient sanctions on their nuc proliferation continues. And it remains as longs as food aid is given as a blackmail response to their military posturing.

The fact that their equipment is old and perhaps suffers from shortages does not mean it can not be replaced. Or upgraded or maintained by it's terrorist state partners and or proxy associates the PRC.

Edited by Arlington - 08 Aug 2014 at 06:34
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote caldrail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Aug 2014 at 11:07
North Korea isn't going to put off by a few equipment failures. It will seek to generate its own, and rely - as it already does - on mass infantry tactics.
http://www.unrv.com/forum/blog/31-caldrails-blog/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote literaryClarity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Aug 2014 at 14:40
What kind of a threat is that when the jets which are capable in a fight belong to the South Korean side and it becomes up to them to win the north back?
http://hwyst.hangzhou.com.cn/wmyzh/content/2013-10/09/content_4920423.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Arlington Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Aug 2014 at 20:36
The answer there lies in the historical record. The PRC. They supported the Russian puppet created state once. They remain entirely capable of doing so again.

Iow. Massive upgrades. Massive maintenance assistance. And direct intervention. To maintain the Dprk. It remains in their strategic interests to allow their existence.

That....is why they remain a threat. Not because their tech is aging.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote literaryClarity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2014 at 04:37
It's the North Korean's own military to blame.  It is a dead end because they don't have the infrastructure for a military.  Where would their revenue come from?  If you speculate the PRC will help the North Koreans revive their aged military so that it would be capable of mounting a successful operation against the south Koreans they'd have done this by now.  The PRC has more than enough old equipment.  Why don't they give it away to the North Koreans?
http://hwyst.hangzhou.com.cn/wmyzh/content/2013-10/09/content_4920423.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2014 at 04:59
Originally posted by literaryClarity literaryClarity wrote:

It's the North Korean's own military to blame.  It is a dead end because they don't have the infrastructure for a military.  Where would their revenue come from?  If you speculate the PRC will help the North Koreans revive their aged military so that it would be capable of mounting a successful operation against the south Koreans they'd have done this by now.  The PRC has more than enough old equipment.  Why don't they give it away to the North Koreans?
 
China has been critical of the DPRK recently, so I don't necessarily see the PRC bending over backwards to help North Korea much at all.
 
China has remained fairly stable in recent times, although the most recent claims to parts of the South China Sea are disturbing, while North Korea continues sabre rattling under the leadership of Young Leader, Kim Jung UN, who seems as ratty as his father and grandfather.
 
No one could be sure that North Korea wouldn't, at some stage, turn on its larger neighbour, the PRC, or even re-open the war with the south.
I often wonder why I try.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Arlington Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2014 at 05:54
"It's the North Korean's own military to blame."



**No if anyone's to blame it's the head of state and advisors who make up it's elitist, hardline communist doctrinal oligarchy. And their intransigence in policy that have even included retarding relations to a lesser degree; with their old allies the PRC.






  ''It is a dead end because they don't have the infrastructure for a military.''




**If by infrastructure you mean the means and mechanisms to produce or to site military equipment, or base construction/s past and present...then your research needs to get better.

As they do indeed have the infrastructure. I don't argue your premise that their equipment is aging or suffers in logistics. But their capabilities while limited yet remain formidable in the immediate sense for the neighbors to the south. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/25/how-strong-is-north-koreas-military-capabilities_n_3153691.html




''Where would their revenue come from?''




**Where it currently comes from; the PRC and other terrorist nation states trading agreements be they covert or overt. Your assuming their broke with no growth...both, while quite small, compared to others, ntl do exist.


http://edition.cnn.com/2013/04/09/business/north-korea-economy-explainer/





  ''If you speculate the PRC will help the North Koreans revive their aged military so that it would be capable of mounting a successful operation against the south Koreans they'd have done this by now.'' 



**Because it's not in their interests to engage in a massive engagement with the United States over the South. viz aggression beyond a certain point by the North. And this might; and probably would, create tensions beyond the norm. If a sudden overt upgrade were conducted. Furthermore whose to say they have not clandestinely, to a point, done so. And those upgrades and munitions etc. are not currently, in stock, in the numerous underground facilities in use by the North.


The ability to garner updated humint has been notoriously difficult for the West reference the actual state of the aforementioned. Further more with a limited nuc-chem-bio capability; the North has more than adequate amounts of capabilities to wreak havoc for at least a 2-3 month confrontation without immediate or obvious displays of upgrades.

Whether you choose to believe it or not, accept or not, the PRC still calls the shots with the DPRK. And as I indicated previously, in it's interests, allows it's existence and it's maintenance.

http://www.cfr.org/china/china-north-korea-relationship/p11097

Review the links and if you disagree with the many experts on Sino-DPRK relations and alliance. Query them and tell them why after years of expertise in the field, their wrong and the DPRK is still not a threat. And that you disagree.




''The PRC has more than enough old equipment.  Why don't they give it away to the North Koreans?''





** Much of that equipment is in reserve for the PRC reserve forces. But that does not preclude the PRC's rapid ability to do so if and when they desire, again, if suits their interests. And as a matter of fact they do when the surreptitiousness of the exchange/upgrades/replacements is not revealed.


The only current ban is tech, reference Nuc and missile delivery systems proliferation. There are others who point to a defector's admission that the DPRK does not believe it will occur. But that is a single source. Hardly credible.

You seem to confuse the PRC's ability to do it versus when THEY might CHOOSE to do it. or increase what they already do. That's their decision.


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/21/world/americas/suspected-sale-by-china-to-north-korea-stirs-concern.html?_r=0

And inadvertently, although long recognized, financial aid is given, also as noted earlier, when blackmail efforts are successful and foreign aid is siphoned of by the central government for the maintenance of the DPRK military.



Consequently it is foolish, if not dangerously delusional to believe them now as a 'paper tiger'. And not a serious threat to stability and peace in the region.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Arlington Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2014 at 05:57
''Consequently it is foolish, if not dangerously delusional to believe them now as a 'paper tiger'. And not a serious threat to stability and peace in the region.''

Matter of fact anyone who believes such is either woefully informed or possibly an agent of disinformation, covertly or overtly, of the PRC/DPRK.

Both are famous for it as are their agents.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote literaryClarity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2014 at 08:05
I believe DPRK is a paper tiger.  Its political strength is pretty much nonexistent.  The only thing it negotiates with is saber rattling and which looks to be weak now.  Its economic power is vague and troublesome with handouts from PRC and it has nothing going for it in terms of cultural appeal or soft power.


Edited by literaryClarity - 09 Aug 2014 at 08:06
http://hwyst.hangzhou.com.cn/wmyzh/content/2013-10/09/content_4920423.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Arlington Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2014 at 09:48
Well than your alone.

As every major western intelligence agency and defense institutions not only disagree with that analysis; but experts in the fields of industrial production and trade-economic relations and international realpoltik do as well.

My advice?

More research and less subjective speculation. As, even given the links, you clearly either remain ill informed or obdurate. To the point of accepting any subject matter experts in the field as being more credible and more qualified to render analysis than your self.

Which means your promoting nonsense and or disinformation.

Either way I'm done here.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote literaryClarity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2014 at 10:42
Gdp nominal for North Korea is ranked lower than Equatorial Guinea yet North Korea has 15 times the population.  Who in the world are you kidding?
http://hwyst.hangzhou.com.cn/wmyzh/content/2013-10/09/content_4920423.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2014 at 12:13
Originally posted by literaryClarity literaryClarity wrote:

I believe DPRK is a paper tiger.  Its political strength is pretty much nonexistent.  The only thing it negotiates with is saber rattling and which looks to be weak now.  Its economic power is vague and troublesome with handouts from PRC and it has nothing going for it in terms of cultural appeal or soft power.
 
A paper tiger maybe, but the DPRK is a very dangerous country, quite capable, and seemingly willing to provoke it's neighbours.
 
Because of the irrationality of Kim Jung Un, North Korea could lash out at any time, with tragic results for the region.
 
To think otherwise would be foolish.
I often wonder why I try.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2014 at 12:14
Originally posted by literaryClarity literaryClarity wrote:

Gdp nominal for North Korea is ranked lower than Equatorial Guinea yet North Korea has 15 times the population.  Who in the world are you kidding?
 
We're not measuring GDP, we're talking potential for military recklessness.
I often wonder why I try.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2014 at 12:15
I often wonder why I try.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote literaryClarity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2014 at 07:20
Military recklessness?  What is that?  Like shooting yourself in the foot?  The entire gdp of North Korea as of 2011 was approximately 12 billion dollars.  The entire fleet of South Korean jets probably costs more than that in maintenance.
http://hwyst.hangzhou.com.cn/wmyzh/content/2013-10/09/content_4920423.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2014 at 07:25
Originally posted by literaryClarity literaryClarity wrote:

Military recklessness?  What is that?  Like shooting yourself in the foot?  The entire gdp of North Korea as of 2011 was approximately 12 billion dollars.  The entire fleet of South Korean jets probably costs more than that in maintenance.
 
A more reasonable analogy would perhaps be Military stupidity-firing off a rocket as a display of force against South Korea, and igniting a new war in the region.
I often wonder why I try.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote literaryClarity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2014 at 07:49
Military stupidity lol Very good toyomotor
http://hwyst.hangzhou.com.cn/wmyzh/content/2013-10/09/content_4920423.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2014 at 14:40
Originally posted by literaryClarity literaryClarity wrote:

Military stupidity lol Very good toyomotor
 
Why do you persist in singling me out for your negative and caustic comments.
 
I've tried to engage you in sensible conversation recently, only to receive crap from you.
 
WHAT IS YOUR PROBLEM?
I often wonder why I try.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote literaryClarity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2014 at 15:46
I think you are mistaken about me persisting in it.  I made one snappy remark in my own thread.  My other comments were reasonably fleshed out.  I actually thought you were correct regarding the state of the military in North Korea and as a result there was humor in what you said.  Military recklessness is more like military stupidity on the part of the North Koreans.
http://hwyst.hangzhou.com.cn/wmyzh/content/2013-10/09/content_4920423.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Yingui Lexicon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2014 at 01:40
They have nuclear warheads, something which South Korea does not have. Having said that, nukes are used just for pushing around weight, rather than actual use. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Captain Vancouver Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2014 at 04:56
Originally posted by Yingui Lexicon Yingui Lexicon wrote:

They have nuclear warheads, something which South Korea does not have. Having said that, nukes are used just for pushing around weight, rather than actual use. 

Welcome to the forum! 

I tend to agree, weapons of mass destruction have far more utility in threat than in actual usage.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote literaryClarity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2014 at 21:53
If the nuclear warhead North Korea has crashes back down to North Korea what kind of threat is there?
http://hwyst.hangzhou.com.cn/wmyzh/content/2013-10/09/content_4920423.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Aug 2014 at 03:11
The mere fact that a secretive country, run by a junior meglomaniac has nuclear weapons should be in and of itself reason for considerable concern.
 
Kim Jung Un, to all appearances, is even more unstable than his father.
I often wonder why I try.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote literaryClarity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2014 at 06:49
But that threat is already being acted upon by the extension of embargos which was the whole point of telling them to disarm and progress no further with the idealisms that they have.  You don't make up new threats to pacify just because you feel annoyed at the "little emperor".
http://hwyst.hangzhou.com.cn/wmyzh/content/2013-10/09/content_4920423.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2014 at 07:31
Yeah, yeah,yeah. Like Kim Jung Un cares about embargos.
 
Like he hasn't fired off rockets, whether to intimidate, provoke or just to annoy his neighbours.
 
Who knows what Young Leader will come up with next?
I often wonder why I try.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote literaryClarity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2014 at 10:54
So you are saying the embargos don't do anything and that they should be lifted?  The only reason North Koreans don't present a threat is because their economy is in shambles and the lack of monetary support for their military reflects the actual state of their military readiness.  If they were lifted then you can count on them being a threat within the region.  it's a sob story.  Actually lifting the embargoes might convince them to turn the other cheek and adopt a more global standard of living.
http://hwyst.hangzhou.com.cn/wmyzh/content/2013-10/09/content_4920423.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2014 at 15:21
Originally posted by literaryClarity literaryClarity wrote:

So you are saying the embargos don't do anything and that they should be lifted?  The only reason North Koreans don't present a threat is because their economy is in shambles and the lack of monetary support for their military reflects the actual state of their military readiness.  If they were lifted then you can count on them being a threat within the region.  it's a sob story.  Actually lifting the embargoes might convince them to turn the other cheek and adopt a more global standard of living.
 
Don't expect a reply from me on anything you post.
I often wonder why I try.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote literaryClarity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2014 at 21:04
Okay
http://hwyst.hangzhou.com.cn/wmyzh/content/2013-10/09/content_4920423.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PeaceB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 08:40
North Korea's cyber army is still strong. Much stronger than South Korea's at this moment. This is how North Korea hacked South Korean military secrets multiple times. It's also because South Korea has a very weak software culture in genenral.
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