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Unrest in Turkey and rampart corruption

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Chieftain

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    Posted: 29 Dec 2013 at 00:38
Turkish politics are moving in an unclear direction. The conflicts between current Islamist government and its secular opposition are heating up. The widespread corruption scandal and intervention in Syrian mess have caused unrest in different Turkish cities. Can Erdogan resist the opposition pressure or he should step down as PM of Turkey?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Paradigm of Humanity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Dec 2013 at 09:16
I guess you don't have a clue about what is going on... The one Erdoğan battling is something much more powerful than ideologically and politically subdued oligarchic ultra-secularism. That thing is the elements of the Hizmet movement and Fethullah Gülen. It's a muslim vs muslim battle, if Gülen wins and decides to dismantle AKP, he will control all the strings within the state. Every government party will be his marionette after that - even if it is a secular one.

The guy Erdoğan battling:


Edited by Paradigm of Humanity - 30 Dec 2013 at 09:25
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Harburs Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Dec 2013 at 11:28
I am aware of Gulen moves. But the recent event has weaken Erdogan quite significantly. Even his own son along bunch of his cabinet members are involved in that corruption scandal. Seculars and other opposition group use this opportunity to bash the government. Erdogan should fight in several fronts. As you said, Gulen and his cronies are in a different camp.

I know Gulen controls bunch of Turkish schools and educational institutions, but I admit I don't know the guy in depth. How influential is the guy in Turkish politics, society and economy? I know he is some powerful guy in the background living in US.


Edited by Harburs - 30 Dec 2013 at 11:30
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Paradigm of Humanity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Dec 2013 at 12:57
Originally posted by Harburs Harburs wrote:

I know Gulen controls bunch of Turkish schools and educational institutions, but I admit I don't know the guy in depth. How influential is the guy in Turkish politics, society and economy? I know he is some powerful guy in the background living in US.
 
His main financial power lies in US and Turkey. He runs 135+ charter schools alone in United States, he has schools in 140+ countries. If you ever going to be in an African country or for example in Papua New Guina, your children likely will be in one of his schools. Elites of these countries too send their children to Gülen's schools. Many of these schools teaching Turkish too and these students join Gülen organised annual Turkish language olympics in Turkey.

It was the Gülen's followers within army, police, judiciary, media etc.. the ones who subdued ultrasecular oligarchy of Turkey through whistleblowings and legal prosecutions. They probably legaly lynched some people not directly involved in plots againts government - but they sure did had dirty enough pasts to become easy targets.

Now, Gülen's agents within the state launched a campaign to lynch Erdoğan himself. At first they hoped a transition of power within AKP, from Erdoğan to a more politically correct figure (like deputy PM Bülent Arınç or President Abdullah Gül - they were friendlier to Gülen too). But obviously they miscalculated that a little too far.

The conflict between Erdoğan and Gülen first arised from Mavi Marmara incident. Gülen was quite worry about Erdoğan's harsh critism of Israel. Back in the past Erdoğan himself was severed his ties with his master (N. Erbakan) because of Erbakan's idealism. That idealism costed him dearly through his political life. But Erdoğan was more of a realist and pragmatist. He seeked consultation of power centres (US, Europe, Israel, Turkish military, Turkish judiciary etc.) and tried not to disturb their interests. But eventually he too had to abandon this approach and found himself in a fight he didn't asked for. Gülen probably thinks Erdoğan has gone too far and too early.

Another major breakdown between the two was PKK issue. Erdoğan preferred to negotiate with head PKK (Öcalan) and PKK command structure for a solution to Kurdish issue. Gülen movement fiercely opposed this and they responded by trying to judicially lynch the man who handled negotiations: head of national intelligence agency, Hakan Fidan. Erdoğan was placed him there himself and intervened immediately, thus saving him and ongoing negotiation process.

After that, Erdoğan became increasingly fearful of the movement, he too was helped his former ally to gain strategical positions within the state. Now they could use these assets againts him. So, Erdoğan decided to cut Gülen from his main financial resource by closing down preparation schools - for universities (there are 4000+ such prep schools in Turkey and rougly a quarter of them affiliated with Gülen). A few weeks later, in December 17, Gülen's agents within the state unleashed their most impressive storm yet by arresting over  50 people, some of them sons of current ministers and businessman close to AKP. These 50 people were from three different files/cases, all their work has done six month ago and waited under their hand for the right moment and they unleashed all in single day.

It becomes increasingly getting interesting :D 


Edited by Paradigm of Humanity - 30 Dec 2013 at 13:10
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Harburs Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Dec 2013 at 18:11
I was surprised when I found out the scandal was related to Iranian regime through Reza Zarab, Ebru Gundesh Iranian husband. I knew there must be a powerful organization involved, and my guess was Israel being the sources of info, but I could not find the motives. I know Erodogan has some anti-Israeli attitude at the moment, but I didn't find it enough of motive for Israelis to take him down at this moment, considering the situation of the Syria and the stability of the region. My guess was the info about Iranian underground networks could be revealed only with Israeli or American intelligent agencies permission, so I was puzzled here to find what was their motive. The ring leader of Iranian underground network in Turkey was an Iranian billionaire, Babak Zanjani who was linked to Ahmadi Nejad. He was arrested today morning in Iran. He was Reza Zarab's boss. Zanjani has been arrested for his corruption in Iran (stealing 3 billion dollars from oil industry and some billion dollars from national health insurance and social security). I don't think this was just a coincidence since many knew this guy was corrupt, but because of his network in the system nobody could touch him, then we heard he was arrested and taken to notorious Evin prison this morning. Apparently, many of Turkish cabinet members or their close relatives were involve around a money laundering operation.

Edited by Harburs - 30 Dec 2013 at 18:32
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Paradigm of Humanity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Dec 2013 at 18:58
I heard about that part. But it seems you have clearer picture on it. Still, I think something bigger might me going on. Erdoğan accused Gülen's agents of sabotaging Turkey's strategic interests. Part of operations targeted %51 state owned Halkbank, which handled oil-gold transactions between Turkey and Iran. It is speculated that Halkbank was about to be Northern Iraqi government's choice of bank for money transactions. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Harburs Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Dec 2013 at 20:58
Well it is getting more interesting. Iranian regime, Turkish AKP party, Syrian regime, Iraqi Kurdistan...

I will give you some info about Iranian involvements and Iranians thinking toward Turkey. It may make things more clear.

Back in protests after Iranian rigged election of 2009, the hard liners and pro-supreme leader faction were pretty much shaken by the Iranian public reaction and were counting down their days. They tried to physically take billion of dollars out of Iran in forms of foreign currency, diamonds, gold, etc... Some of their cargoes were confiscated, one of which was a gold cargo worth 18 billion dollars in Turkey. This cargo belonged to Supreme leader's son Mujtaba. Another 3 billion dollars was track down by British authorities. Many more cases happened in UAE and other neighboring countries as well. After the regime could suppress the anti-government protests. It tried to strike a deal with Turkey to take the gold back, but Turkey did not want to let it go so easy. Under embargo and international sanctions Iranian regime needed Turkish corridor for money laundering and circumventing the sanctions, so they had apparently come to a mutual agreement with Erdogan party. Many Iranians believe Turkey owes some of its economic success of last decade to Iranian clients (regime). There have been reports that Erdogan and other big wigs in AKP demanding Iran to buy Turkish products for the oil and gas money (which Turkey imported from Iran) and other transactions (the money of Iranian gas and oil international sales which came back to Iran via Turkish banks). There was even one example that Erdogan insisting Iranian underground network buying more gold from Turkey, so he could show Turkish export has been increased by a large percentage to satisfy Turks (basically playing with figures and charts the favorite Ahmadi Nejad style of tricking people.) Babak Zanjani was an Iranian agent to circumvent the sanctions through hundreds of foreign established firms. Zanjani have many companies around the world including some banks in Tajikistan and Malaysia, an airline, a football club, and etc... His entire announced fortune is around 13 billion dollars. He is linked to IIRC or Iranian revolutionary guards corps and a segment of Iranian hard liner coalition (Osulgarayan aka fundamentalists.) Americans found his involvements in undermining the sanctions and now he in under the sanction as well, but he operates through his middle men. He is involved in many Iranian scandals, but his powerful backers still hang on to him because they fear their involvements may come to surface. There were rumors that through his Iranian banks and airline he had transferred arms and money to Syria. The guy has caused the Iranian national health insurance and social security to become bankrupt.  He was also involved in Iraqi Kurdistan with his IIRC commander friend, Seyed Hasan Mir Kazemi, who is another corrupt hard liner who is a militarist and merchant. Mir kazemi owns millions of dollars to Iranian banks. Just remember names like Mortazavi, Baghai, Mashai, Rahimi who were all Ahmadi Nejad close companions. These guys are all linked to Zanjani. You may hear more about them in future. 

If we go further we may found a large network from Iran to Turkey, Iraqi Kurdistan, Syria and beyond...  Do you know anything more about Turkish involvement to this network? I know Ahmadi Nejad and Erdogan were friends at the beginning! Smile



Edited by Harburs - 30 Dec 2013 at 21:29
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Paradigm of Humanity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Dec 2013 at 21:50
Given amount of size of the gold-oil/gas trade, it is not a big boon for Turkey over 10 years but it's a significant boost to reduce trade decifit in short term. That's because Turkey is energy hungry, needs to import it and that's the main source of the trade decifit.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Paradigm of Humanity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Dec 2013 at 22:01
Originally posted by Harburs Harburs wrote:

If we go further we may found a large network from Iran to Turkey, Iraqi Kurdistan, Syria and beyond...  Do you know anything more about Turkish involvement to this network? I know Ahmadi Nejad and Erdogan were friends at the beginning! Smile

Turkey's relations with Iran always been pragmatist since Erdoğan's approach to Iran. Previous governments always kept distance with Iran, stood aloof and indifferent. Like if Iran wasn't next to our borders but in Antarctica. Iran is simply too big to ignore - unlike Armenia...

Edited by Paradigm of Humanity - 30 Dec 2013 at 22:01
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Harburs Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Dec 2013 at 22:12
There is another factor which you need to consider here. Iran has been under embargo by US for 30 years, but for past decade the sanctions became more organized and tougher to the point that are suffocating Iranian regime.

Iranian regime and companies used Dubai in UAE as a hub for importing majority of their import, but after UAE start cooperating with US and threatening Iranian Islands. Iranian regime chose Turkey as a new hub for import. Thousands of Iranian companies regime backed or independent transferred their assets from Dubai to Turkey in past decade. Now you can imagine how much money having funneling through Turkey within last years. The only difference is the money Iranian regime paid to Turkish side became more and more specially within last 4 years. Now think about 75 millions wanting different products, even if half of these were imported from Turkey, then you can guess the numbers were quite significant.

Hundreds of thousands of Iranian tourists used to come to Turkey every year in cities such as Istanbul, Ezmir, Adana and Antalia. If you ask local hotels and restaurants in Antalia you will know Iranians were among three largest nationalities who spent the summer in Turkey. Now, it is different. Since last year the numbers of Iranians travelling Turkey decreased significantly duo to Iranian rial loosing its value.



Edited by Harburs - 30 Dec 2013 at 22:29
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Harburs Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Dec 2013 at 22:19
Originally posted by Paradigm of Humanity Paradigm of Humanity wrote:

Originally posted by Harburs Harburs wrote:

If we go further we may found a large network from Iran to Turkey, Iraqi Kurdistan, Syria and beyond...  Do you know anything more about Turkish involvement to this network? I know Ahmadi Nejad and Erdogan were friends at the beginning! Smile

Turkey's relations with Iran always been pragmatist since Erdoğan's approach to Iran. Previous governments always kept distance with Iran, stood aloof and indifferent. Like if Iran wasn't next to our borders but in Antarctica. Iran is simply too big to ignore - unlike Armenia...

I remember those days. Bulent Ejevit's cabinet and previous PMs. You are right Erdogan had a good approach at the beginning but he could not keep it that way. Bilateral cultural and economical exchange were good, unfortunately, it didn't last in a healthy condition.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Harburs Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jan 2014 at 20:52
Update:

It looks like Erdogan is switching allies to secure his position. He is leaning toward Secular minded military big wigs to counter Turkish Judiciary system and police which are under Golen influence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Paradigm of Humanity Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jan 2014 at 11:16
No single organisation is under control of a singular person, every block has men everywhere.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote senermirim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Feb 2014 at 06:12
Turkey tourism have a problem with police corruption. The police take advantage of people not from the area, asking for bribes. Turkey economy is great, but in regards to human rights has one of the worst ratings in the world.

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