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US verus China 21st century

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    Posted: 16 Jul 2011 at 13:26
http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/14/china-vs-the-u-s-who-will-win-the-21st-century/?hpt=hp_c2

I like this guy a lot, he's pretty smart and I agree with most things he says. He is a bit biased I think because U.S. govt. is a 2 way street, irregardless if I lean towards the Democratic party.

What I don't understand is why he excluded both India and Brazil.

So what do you guys think the 21st century will hold?

At the end will the world be similar to the one we live in? or will there be an entire new world order?



Edited by SPQR - 16 Jul 2011 at 13:36
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Jul 2011 at 18:25
I think this is an example were we could offer a little time and "look back" to an earlier age (and - well - I admit there is a bit repetiotion of what I have written before - that is not the same as my point of view is irrellevant). An era I find particularly relevant - and interesting -  in this context is the period from the later part of the 19.th century up to at least the first great "clash" 1914-18. A period with both a number of "established" old powers, some of them even very much in decline, and then a group of new rising and very ambitious powers. Most of the period after one of the biggest questions and problems for historians were why it all went that wrong. Perhaps political scientists, historians even politicians should ask themselves what could possibly lead into disaster. What could the "new stars", as China, India, Brazil or other "challengers" learn from , say German History of that age? (perhaps not least about what not to do). 
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There is never a new world order.  Aside from propaganda, it is always the wealthy interests that take care of themselves and the vast majority that bends over for them.
In reading one history of late antiquity, there was an extensive discussion of local vs central economic-political influence.  I remember that the author described the development of society in the western Roman Empire this way:
 
The winners:  An aristocracy of landowners.  The losers:  Everyone else.
 
In what may be the abberant myopia of "middle class" culture in the last two centuries, it seems to be lost that in the last two generations, wealth has ceased to flow toward the bottom, and has begun cascading back toward the top echelon of society.
 
That isn't geopolitical as much as it is social, but it impacts every segment of the population of the earth now.  It is increasingly apparent in Europe, Asia, North America, and in South America.  The geopolitical future of the 21st century, rather than who has the moral high ground, might be more about who controls the wealth and who pays the price.  (Gee, didn't I just say that above?  Smile )
 
The inevitable conflicts will be funded by the vast majority, and the benefits will be reaped by the wealthy interests.  As always has been the case.  The vital interests of elites, and the strategic-geographic realities that impact those, do not change much - at all. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 17 Jul 2011 at 03:54
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Jul 2011 at 04:49
While the U.S. keep the monopoly of the media industry, with Hollywood and music, and keep the monopoly of top universities and research labs, it is very hard another powers take the control. Not even Japanese have managed to destroy those American monopolies as yet, no matter they have tried.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Darius of Parsa Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Jul 2011 at 04:51
Okay well I had a nice, quite large explanation as to why. But, I pressed the backspace button and...well it's gone. Angry
 
Therefore I will elaborate at a later time, after I calm down. Though I did elaborate in many other topics about this same thing.
 
China will fall.
 
The United States will continue to be the most powerful nation.
 
 
 
"I am moved to pity, when I think of the brevity of human life, seeing that of all this host of men not one will still be alive in a hundred years time."

Emporer Xerxes I looking upon his army 480 BC
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Jul 2011 at 06:32
Whatever we think we cannot be sure, since it is largely about beliefs. Rivalries between powers and coalitions of powers are not the only risk in this century, and we may too easily forget the possibillity of internal conflicts and dysfunction. Not only in countries like China and India, but even within the "western camp", perhaps even internal problems inside countries. Internal animosities, non-cooperation and  bad leadership inside  American and European region is a possibillity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Jul 2011 at 07:43
China's journey to become the world's top superpower is looking to end well (for China). Japan never managed to challenge the USA because Japan was a country of 125 million versus the USA, a country of 300 million. China is a country of 1,300 millions. That's a difference from Japan!

Brazil is a country of 190 million and India has a population of 1,200 million. Brazil doesn't have the manpower to become a global superpower. While India has. I think that in the next 50 years, China and India will emerge to become the main superpowers, the USA will be relegated to the 3rd spot (in terms of GDP and military capabilities), Brazil will surpass Japan and become the 4th largest economy, but Brazil will never have a massive military as the country doesn't need it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Harburs Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Jul 2011 at 08:26
All signs lead to China's rising and America's falling, but America is the biggest market for Chinese products. If China manages to diversify its export destinations and somehow replace American market then it may rise to first super power position in the world. This will cause a great downfall in America because China wont lend any more money to US to fix its budget. If this happen our economy will hurt significantly.

China is doing whatever it can to diversify its export destination. I just read an article about a new deal with Iranian regime for more investment in energy field and more exports. Iranian private industry has been ruined by this excessive imports from china. Many people have become unemployed and many companies have been closed down. Right now Chinese exports to Iran is about 30 billion dollars annually. With new contract it will rise up to 100 billion dollars.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ALLAN Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Jul 2011 at 17:36
The smart money is on India to be the leading economy in years to come, with maybe China in second, depending on the outcome of a bubble burst in the Chinese economy. This America China thing going on is a fascinating dance. The Americans are desperate for "Chinese" money, and yet China has been forced to work in US Dollars and can't let America fall as it would take them down too. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Jul 2011 at 18:57
Large population makes problems as well as opportunities, and perhaps the former have more weight. Especially when the ressources seems rather restrained.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Jul 2011 at 23:24
Originally posted by Guaporense Guaporense wrote:

China's journey to become the world's top superpower is looking to end well (for China). Japan never managed to challenge the USA because Japan was a country of 125 million versus the USA, a country of 300 million. China is a country of 1,300 millions. That's a difference from Japan!

Brazil is a country of 190 million and India has a population of 1,200 million. Brazil doesn't have the manpower to become a global superpower. While India has. I think that in the next 50 years, China and India will emerge to become the main superpowers, the USA will be relegated to the 3rd spot (in terms of GDP and military capabilities), Brazil will surpass Japan and become the 4th largest economy, but Brazil will never have a massive military as the country doesn't need it.


I don't think India will make the mark at all. That's is a country as poor as Africa with a small elite that is producing high tech. You don't have decent roads in India, decent housing or decent heath care. The country is hundred of years behind the mark and can't be compared to China or even to Brazil at all, in development per capita.





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Jul 2011 at 23:31
Originally posted by Suren Suren wrote:

All signs lead to China's rising and America's falling, but America is the biggest market for Chinese products. If China manages to diversify its export destinations and somehow replace American market then it may rise to first super power position in the world. This will cause a great downfall in America because China wont lend any more money to US to fix its budget. If this happen our economy will hurt significantly.

China is doing whatever it can to diversify its export destination. I just read an article about a new deal with Iranian regime for more investment in energy field and more exports. Iranian private industry has been ruined by this excessive imports from china. Many people have become unemployed and many companies have been closed down. Right now Chinese exports to Iran is about 30 billion dollars annually. With new contract it will rise up to 100 billion dollars.


The U.S. is falling simply because it lost its north. If the U.S. planned a little bit more, and think more in long term, it could easily retake the lead. The U.S. can't compite with China in small manufacturing, so its focus should be new large scale projects developed worldwide. Some steps I think should take the U.S. out of its problems.

(1) The U.S. should replace oil for alternative fuels, developing electric cars, pushing solar power in a massive scale, and changing houses' surfaces so they produce electricity and heat. It should push geothermal, electric and solar energy in large scale. It should also push ahead  its projects on solar satelites and nuclear fusion with more strenght.

(2) The U.S. should develop space tourism, investing in the development of high scale space projects.

(3) The U.S. should develop new infrastructure, starting from high speed railroads.

(4) The U.S. should rethink the computer hardware and software industry.








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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote drgonzaga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Jul 2011 at 23:32
Given the predilection for crystal-balling on this thread perhaps we should consult the Great Karnak:
 
China: The dystensions caused by growing income inequities and a rigid political hierarchy isolated from the purportedly "governed" will generate a massive "peasant" uprising against the "cat" of many colors given the limited numbers of mice. Hey, folks keep in mind that the dynastic clock is ticking!
 
India: The Anglicized maharajahs of the subcontinent will disintegrate in their attempts to preserve the modus vivendi inherited from the Raj. India's political elite is still sore over the 1947 partition...
 
Brazil: The quaint political parties frozen to a 19th century ideological mindset will resolve nothing but will generate impressive statistics on development emphasizing the grand glories of latifundio economics! Let no pesky nuns get in the way!
Honi soit qui mal y pense
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jul 2011 at 00:51
Baloney. I'm afraid you are a very bad prophet, Drgonzaga, simply because you don't see the whole picture. Don't feel bad, though, 99.99% of humans are very bad predictors. We tend to extrapolate current tendencies, forgetting technology produce major changes without much warning.
China is trying hard during half a century to catch up with the west. During the following 50 we will see it surpassing the rest in some fields, perhaps in railroads and infrastructure, for instance. Will China surpass the world in everything else, we'll have to see it.
Today the U.S. still has a monopoly on media and scientific-technological creativity, but that may change. To make science and to compite you need money, and if the U.S. isn't able to ballance its budget, money can go in a real short time.




Edited by pinguin - 18 Jul 2011 at 00:54
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I agree that energy will likely be a big part of the equation. The US may be vulnerable in this regard as it is more heavily invested in a cheap oil paradigm than others, who haved hedged their bets somewhat. Limitations on supply due to shortages or environmental urgency would place the US in the position of remaking much of their transportation infrustructure.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote drgonzaga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jul 2011 at 03:28
Apparently Pinguin the humor involved in my post totally escaped you. However, thank you for another ROTFLMAO moment.
You wrote:
Don't feel bad, though, 99.99% of humans are very bad predictors...
 
Only to go on and predicate in full double bubble toil and trouble mode! Do you consider yourself among that .01% of the general population that trace their descent from the Witch of Endor?
 


Edited by drgonzaga - 18 Jul 2011 at 03:29
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote es_bih Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jul 2011 at 03:42
Haven't people been predicting the decline for quite some time?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jul 2011 at 04:49

I think we can say that the problems with ressources and with (self) destructive human impact will be more and more important and urgent even without abilites as any "witch", "oracle" or Nostradamus. It may even be more important than the geographical location of the "centre of power". thje position as "leader" may be not so attractive as it has been(or as some has assumed it was).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jul 2011 at 05:11
Well, I believe people is aware of Napoleon's prophecy:

China? There lies a sleeping giant. Let him sleep, for when he wakes he will move the world.

—Napoleon Bonaparte


Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,916563,00.html#ixzz1SO55Dg4r

I don't know, but I guess Napoleon had more predictive powers that our doc.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jul 2011 at 05:16
Originally posted by pinguin pinguin wrote:

Well, I believe people is aware of Napoleon's prophecy:

China? There lies a sleeping giant. Let him sleep, for when he wakes he will move the world.

—Napoleon Bonaparte


Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,916563,00.html#ixzz1SO55Dg4r

I don't know, but I guess Napoleon had more predictive powers that our doc.

Then we may wonder much about his superb abilities when he attacked Russia 199 years ago, and again in 1815 right before his great battle at Watterloo.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jul 2011 at 05:55
Certainly. He wasn't a good predictor of short terms events.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Harburs Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jul 2011 at 06:40
I think Donald doc can't be a predictor either. He is a pessimist.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jul 2011 at 06:52
Originally posted by Guaporense Guaporense wrote:

China's journey to become the world's top superpower is looking to end well (for China). Japan never managed to challenge the USA because Japan was a country of 125 million versus the USA, a country of 300 million. China is a country of 1,300 millions. That's a difference from Japan!

Brazil is a country of 190 million and India has a population of 1,200 million. Brazil doesn't have the manpower to become a global superpower. While India has. I think that in the next 50 years, China and India will emerge to become the main superpowers, the USA will be relegated to the 3rd spot (in terms of GDP and military capabilities), Brazil will surpass Japan and become the 4th largest economy, but Brazil will never have a massive military as the country doesn't need it.
 
Hello Guaporense, welme to the forum.
 
Now to the numbers, numbers are not everything. Yes India has the numbers over Brazil (are you from there by the way?) but as Pinguin said, India is essentially an African country that is the size of the African continent.
 
Nearly +600 mil Indians live on less than $2 a day which is larger than in the whole of Africa and what is worse that number is not shrinking, its growing. You see there is no one India, there are 35 Indias (according to the number of states and territories) and all the glamour and media hype is actually concentrated on only 4 states (Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka) with a combined population of +200 mil and even there the majority of the people are poor. The rest are as poor as any African country.
 
Not to mention the regional and cultural differences between different Indian states and territories. India's southern states are a world apart from those in the Center or the North, they are richer, more literate, have a completely different hindu tradition etc. Once the very poor and highly populated Northern states become too much of a burden on the South India will break up.
 
 
Now to China, China's real problem is land. Of the 9 million sq km and 1.3 billion people only 50 million people live on 4.1 million sq km which is the nearly half the size of China's territory. This puts massive strain on the remaining land which is already been used to its limits. To put it in perspective California has to have 90 million people to match China's own most populous province. Unlike India however ethnic divisions are of little importance. No one in his right mind will challange China's sovereignty and the ethnic groups are so tiny they are irrelevant. The real problem that faces China are climatic and natural. Droughts, floods, cold/heat waves etc. All these destroy the thing that is keeping China together and that is cheap food. Once you take that from the Chinese you are in big trouble.
 
China will overcome the US economically or it already did, all the US has are artificial numbers while the real economic output exists in China. Politically however I doubt the Chinese want to go global especially that they still haven't resolved the control issues on their own back yard (Taiwan being the biggest example). All the Chinese expansion that we see is economic not political. Once they put their things in order we might see them going global.
 
Oh, about Brazil. That country should have been the US of South America. All the elements that made the US what it is existed in Brazil but something just stopped them from achieving this. I agree with the Doc on Brazil. The political class in the country are a hindrance not a help.
 
 
 
Al-Jassas
 
 


Edited by Al Jassas - 18 Jul 2011 at 06:55
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pinguin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jul 2011 at 07:06
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

... 
Oh, about Brazil. That country should have been the US of South America. All the elements that made the US what it is existed in Brazil but something just stopped them from achieving this. I agree with the Doc on Brazil. The political class in the country are a hindrance not a help.


Confused
To understand that you should go back to history. You must know that at 1776 the U.S. already has the technology and science of a developed country, while the Brazil of the 1880 and even at 1960 was a place of absolute misery.
From the South American point of view, since 1945, the abism between the developed country and our nations has been narrowing, and will continue to do so.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jul 2011 at 18:22
If we want an illustration how much and how often human predictors fails we can take a look at the history of war.
There seems to be little idea in going to war if not for winnming them. So it seems people thousands and thousands of times made the same mistake: to believe they were the comming winners.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eventhorizon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jul 2011 at 18:50
A little late to the party, but I think predictions are pretty much useless, it all depends on unusual change agents that seem to appear from nowhere and make the impossible happen.

What this thread does, like many others is expose peoples biases and prejudices, if nothing else.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RollingWave Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jul 2011 at 12:40
Originally posted by drgonzaga drgonzaga wrote:

Given the predilection for crystal-balling on this thread perhaps we should consult the Great Karnak:
 
China: The dystensions caused by growing income inequities and a rigid political hierarchy isolated from the purportedly "governed" will generate a massive "peasant" uprising against the "cat" of many colors given the limited numbers of mice. Hey, folks keep in mind that the dynastic clock is ticking!
 
 
This is possible in the worst case outcome, but not super likely, because their neighbors are good examples of what would likely happen. South Korea / Taiwan and to a lesser extend Japan all went through development paths much like China in the later half of the 20th century, and non of them ended up going to the worst case, of course China being bigger will make this trickier, but there are enough reasons to think that the CCP will make enough adjustments to eventually turn out ok.
 
(remember, Taiwan was a dictatorship until the late 80s, Korea until the early 90s was essentially a military dictatorship as well, and Japan's "democracy"'s representiveness have always been meh (because the VAST majority of their parliment members end up being from political familes which started no later than the Meiji era and some even earlier) and the path of their economic development and social / demographic / cultural constructions are all very close to China's)
 
 


Edited by RollingWave - 29 Jul 2011 at 12:46
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