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US-Russia deal on Crimea and Ukraine

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azadi7 View Drop Down
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    Posted: 02 Dec 2018 at 19:18
A Trump/Sanders world:

Presidents of the USA:

2017-2021: Donald Trump/Mike Pence
2016: Def. Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
In 2019 met Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin in Astana City, Kazakhstan. Russia promises to cease all support to the pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine and to respect the independence of Ukraine and the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Russia will not object to Ukraine entering NATO. In exchange, USA promises to recognize Crimea as Russian territory. The deal between Trump and Putin on Crimea and Ukraine will not be revealed to the public.


After the Astana summit launched Ukraine an invasion of the rebel-controlled areas in Eastern Ukraine. Russia had withdrawn all support to the pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine before the Ukrainian invasion. Ukraine reconquered the rebel-controlled areas in Eastern Ukraine in a week. Most pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine fled to Russia. Shortly after the Ukrainian reconquest of the rebel-controlled areas in Eastern Ukraine recognized USA Crimea as Russian territory.


Trump's popularity soared after the rapprochement between USA and Russia, but Trump decided to not run for reelection as president. He wanted to stop as president while being on the top of his popularity.

2021-2025: Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren
2020: Def. Nikki Haley/Ted Cruz
In the Democratic primary elections in 2020 defeated Bernie Sanders Joe Biden. Bernie Sanders promised free healthcare after the British NHS model and free college tuition. Bernie Sanders chose Elizabeth Warren, a more moderate progressive than Sanders, as his running mate in order to unite the party. In the Republican primary elections in 2020 won Nikki Haley. Most Republicans supported Nikki Haley, a female Indian-American, in order to appeal to new groups of voters. Nikki Haley chose Ted Cruz as her running mate in order to appeal to the Christian Right in the Republican Party. Bernie Sanders was elected in a landslide, and the Democrats won a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

After being elected, Sanders managed to push a free healthcare system financed by general taxes and free college tuition through Congress.
Sanders decided to not run for reelection as President due to his advanced age.

2025-: Ivanka Trump/Jared Kushner
2024: Def. Elizabeth Warren/Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
In the Republican primary elections in 2024 defeated Ivanka Trump Ted Cruz. Ivanka Trump defended during the primary election campaign gay marriage and defended the rights of states to introduce free abortion if Roe vs. Wade (the US Supreme Court decision introducing free abortion throughout the USA) was repealed, while Ted Cruz wanted to repeal Obergefell vs. Hodges (the US Supreme Court decision introducing civil gay marriage throughout the USA). Ivanka Trump made her husband Jared Kushner her running mate. In the Democratic primary election in 2024 was Elizabeth Warren the clear frontrunner, but Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a young socialist congresswoman, mounted a strong challenge to Elizabeth Warren from the left. Elizabeth Warren still managed to win the nomination, but appointed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as her running mate in order to unify the party.

During the election campaign in 2024, Ivanka Trump advocating keeping free healthcare and free college tuition, but wanted to reduce the welfare state in other areas and to cut taxes. Ivanka Trump defended the right to bear arms and wanted to repeal Roe vs. Wade in order to give the states the right both to keep free abortion and to abolish free abortion. Ivanka Trump defeated Elizabeth Warren in a landslide. The main reason for Ivanka Trump's victory was that most Americans opposed further moves towards socialism.
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toyomotor View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Dec 2018 at 01:10
Avoidance of reality.

That the world sat and watched as Russia annexed Crimea, was in my view, a disastrous mistake, if not a crime.

Inaction by NATO, and in fact the whole world community gave Putin a sense of being all powerful and untouchable. 

Alleged interference in the affairs of other countries, and the assassination of political opponents indicate an emboldened Putin.

Russia should be driven from the Crimea, taking it's war machine with it. The fact that centuries ago Ukraine was a part of Russia is no argument in favour of Russia's bullying tactics.
It's not that I was born in Ireland,
It's the Ireland that was born in me.
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azadi7 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote azadi7 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Dec 2018 at 09:17
Russia makes significant concessions. They stop supporting the East Ukrainian rebels and accepts Ukrainian membership in NATO.

No interest in my scenario for USA's domestic political development (Trump not running for reelection in 2020, Sanders being elected president in 2020, Sanders not running for reelection in 2024, Ivanka Trump being elected president in 2024)?
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franciscosan View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Dec 2018 at 00:36
I think that it might be an interesting setting for a fictional novel.  I think Donald Trump is riding a tiger, and is reluctant to get off.  Perhaps if he was given a deal protecting both himself and his family, he might consider stepping down.  But he would have to be immune from impeachment, and he (and his family) would have to be free from serious charges of malfeasance.  Would he step down to protect Jared Kushner or Donald Trump Jr from charges of malfeasance which if thoroughly investigated and prosecuted they would most likely convicted of?   

Americans did not like the idea of a Clinton co-Presidency, or a Hillary Clinton Presidency. I don't see
why they would like a (Ivanka) Trump co-presidency.  Also, Kushner is Jewish, which might stick in the throat of the religious fundamentalists.
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Windemere View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Windemere Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Dec 2018 at 13:29
Thanks for the previous comments on this speculative history issue.

I don't think that Elizabeth Warren is "a more moderate progressive" than Sanders. Sanders is a socialist, but he basically seems to be pretty practical. I think that Elizabeth Warren is more of an ideological extremist, and not as practical. I think that eventually, as average American weekly wages become lower and lower, the country will have to adopt a 'Medicare for all' health insurance system similar to what's in place in Canada and Europe. Congress, whose members are funded by the health insurance corporations, will scream bloody murder about this, but I don't see any other alternative, as wages and job-security continue to decline. It's likely far off in the future, though.

I cannot imagine Russia acquiescing to Ukraine's becoming a member of NATO, even in return for Crimea being recognised as part of Russia. That would likely involve the potential stationing of NATO's nuclear missiles on Ukraine's border with Russia. I don't think that Russia will ever agree to such a thing. I think it more likely that Russia would agree to returning Crimea to Ukraine, in return for Ukraine's becoming an ally of Russia, and pledging to have nothing to do with NATO. Almost similar to the old Soviet Union days.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Dec 2018 at 14:12
Originally posted by Windemere Windemere wrote:

I cannot imagine Russia acquiescing to Ukraine's becoming a member of NATO, even in return for Crimea being recognised as part of Russia. That would likely involve the potential stationing of NATO's nuclear missiles on Ukraine's border with Russia. I don't think that Russia will ever agree to such a thing. I think it more likely that Russia would agree to returning Crimea to Ukraine, in return for Ukraine's becoming an ally of Russia, and pledging to have nothing to do with NATO. Almost similar to the old Soviet Union days.

The time must come when the world, through the UN and/or NATO must stand up to both Russia and China.

Notwithstanding that the Crimea was once part of Russia, the inhabitants elected to part from Russia, per se, in 1991. Russia's claims that it annexed the Crimea to protect the Russian citizens of the Crimea is pure BS!!! Russia should not be able to veto the Ukraine's entry into NATO and NATO needs to stand firm behind the Ukraine.

Likewise, China needs to withdraw it's military machine in the South China Sea, and being a bit of a hawk, I'd love to see an armada of allied naval ships sail wherever they damn well please in the disputed area. Xi Lin Ping has, reportedly, told his generals to prepare for war-if that's what it takes to enforce freedom of international waters, unfortunately, so be it.

Since the end of the Cold War, US Presidents, lacking Reagan's guts, have been pivotal in allowing rogue nations to get away with whatever they please, especially if they have no oil!!!

As for Trump? Just wait for a few more lies about how well he's dealing with both China and Russia.


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Windemere View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Windemere Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Dec 2018 at 17:08
Thanks for your comments, Toyomotor.

It's true that NATO has to be militarily able to stand up to Russia. Russia over the past several hundred years has been aggressive and expansionistic, and neighbouring nations, which were once occupied and part of the Soviet Union, are justifiably leery, and seeking membership in NATO to guarantee their freedom and security.

But Russia also needs to have guarantees of security. It's understandable that Russia doesn't want NATO's nuclear missiles stationed on her borders ( just as the U.S. wouldn't permit Soviet nuclear missiles stationed in Cuba in 1962). It seems reasonable to expect Ukraine to maintain a neutral political system, and to refrain from an association with NATO. Hopefully, at some time in the future, Ukraine and Russia will be able to patch up their relations, and Crimea will be returned to Ukraine. 

We really have to be cautious, lest we unwittingly come too close to provoking the immeasureable misery of another world war. I doubt that any of the combatant nations in 1914, or in 1939, expected or wanted a world war to break out. But they pushed things too far, refused to compromise, and tragedy ensued.  Military action, even when meant to be limited, has unexpected and unpredictable consequences. Diplomacy is always preferable to  brinksmanship. 

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azadi7 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote azadi7 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Dec 2018 at 18:47
Russia will never give up Crimea no matter what. And Ukraine ought to be allowed to join NATO, because a sovereign state has the right to join whatever military alliance it wants.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Dec 2018 at 23:28
Windemere wrote
Quote But Russia also needs to have guarantees of security. It's understandable that Russia doesn't want NATO's nuclear missiles stationed on her borders ( just as the U.S. wouldn't permit Soviet nuclear missiles stationed in Cuba in 1962). It seems reasonable to expect Ukraine to maintain a neutral political system, and to refrain from an association with NATO. Hopefully, at some time in the future, Ukraine and Russia will be able to patch up their relations, and Crimea will be returned to Ukraine.

I see your point of view and I agree with it. The USA wouldn't countenance Nukes on Cuba, and the Russians likewise with the Ukraine.

So, couldn't a negotiation point be the denuclearisation of Russia, the US, and other countries which possess Nukes. Withdrawal by Russia from the Ukraine, entirely, with a treaty between the Ukraine and Russia that the Ukraine would not permit US missiles on it's territory.

Membership of NATO is seen as a fundamental right of the Ukraine, and the other smaller countries which Russia eyes off, as a mutual defence which should be prepared to act should any member nations engage in hostilities. Russia and the US could play a lead role, as partners, in this.

Perhaps inclusion  is the answer for both Russia and China, not exclusion.

And then we have to take a serious look at Iran and several other middle east countries which have nuclear ambitions.


Edited by toyomotor - 05 Dec 2018 at 23:29
It's not that I was born in Ireland,
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azadi7 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote azadi7 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Dec 2018 at 15:30
A revised version of my scenario:

A Trump/Sanders world:

In 2019 met US president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin in Astana City, Kazakhstan. Russia promises to cease all support to the pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine and to respect the independence of Ukraine and the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Russia will not object to Ukraine entering NATO. In exchange, USA promises to recognize Crimea as Russian territory. The deal between Trump and Putin on Crimea and Ukraine will not be revealed to the public.


After the Astana summit launched Ukraine an invasion of the rebel-controlled areas in Eastern Ukraine. Russia had withdrawn all support to the pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine before the Ukrainian invasion. Ukraine reconquered the rebel-controlled areas in Eastern Ukraine in a week. Most pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine fled to Russia. Shortly after the Ukrainian reconquest of the rebel-controlled areas in Eastern Ukraine recognized USA Crimea as Russian territory.


Trump's popularity soared after the rapprochement between USA and Russia.


In the Democratic primary elections in 2020 defeated Bernie Sanders Joe Biden. Bernie Sanders promised free healthcare after the British NHS model and free college tuition. Bernie Sanders chose Elizabeth Warren, a more moderate progressive than Sanders, as his running mate in order to unite the party.

In the general presidential election defeated Trump narrowly Sanders because of the widespread support for Trump's foreign policy. The Democrats won a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives because of Sanders' strong campaign, and a lot of centrist Democratic senators and congressmen had been defeated in primaries by supporters of Sanders.

Sanders became Senate Majority Leader in January 2021. Sanders managed to push a free healthcare system financed by general taxes and free college tuition through Congress. Trump approved the bills introducing free healthcare and free college tuition. The Democrats retained their majority in the Senate and their majority in the House of Representatives in the midterm election in 2022.


In the Republican primary elections in 2024 defeated Ivanka Trump Ted Cruz. Ivanka Trump defended during the primary election campaign gay marriage and defended the rights of states to introduce free abortion if Roe vs. Wade (the US Supreme Court decision introducing free abortion throughout the USA) was repealed, while Ted Cruz wanted to repeal Obergefell vs. Hodges (the US Supreme Court decision introducing civil gay marriage throughout the USA). Ivanka Trump made her husband Jared Kushner her running mate. In the Democratic primary election in 2024 was Elizabeth Warren the clear frontrunner, but Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a young socialist congresswoman, mounted a strong challenge to Elizabeth Warren from the left. Elizabeth Warren still managed to win the nomination, but appointed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as her running mate in order to unify the party.

During the election campaign in 2024, Ivanka Trump advocating keeping free healthcare and free college tuition, but wanted to reduce the welfare state in other areas and to cut taxes. Ivanka Trump defended the right to bear arms and wanted to repeal Roe vs. Wade in order to give the states the right both to keep free abortion and to abolish free abortion. Ivanka Trump defeated Elizabeth Warren in a landslide. The main reason for Ivanka Trump's victory was that most Americans opposed further moves towards socialism.
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azadi7 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote azadi7 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Dec 2018 at 23:18
No interest in my revised scenario for USA's political development? (Trump is reelected in 2020, but a Bernie Sanders-dominated Democratic Party gains control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives and passes free healthcare and free college tuition with the assent of Trump)?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Windemere Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 17:32
Thanks for your scenario. Just to add, Bernie Sanders is advocating Medicare for All, which is government-supplied medical care similar to Canada and Europe. But it isn't free. Medicare costs $ 135 per month. It covers doctors' visits and hospital care, but  it doesn't cover prescription drugs.  He also supports free tuition at community colleges (the state 2 -year colleges). But the free tuition might not apply to the 4 year state colleges and universities, and it wouldn't appy to any of the private colleges and universities.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote azadi7 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Dec 2018 at 14:24
What do you think of a deal between Trump and Putin on Crimea and Ukraine, where USA recognizes Crimea as Russian territory in exchange for Russia ceasing to support East Ukrainian rebels and where no decision is taken on Ukrainian membership of NATO?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Dec 2018 at 01:06
Russia wants it sphere of influence.  It does not just want Crimea, it wants Ukraine under its thumb, Georgia, and the Baltic states, probably Poland, etc. etc.  It has Belarus under its thumb, and Azerbaijan, Kyrgastan and Kazakhstan.  Oh, let us not forget Chechnya.

As it is, Russia can just give constant pressure on the Ukraine, until they give in, and adopt a friendlier government to Russia.  They know how to wait, and play a long term game.  Of course, Ukraine knows what it is like under Russian rule (think Stalin and famine), and so does not want that.

But the Ukrainian problem is called Putin, and you are not going to get rid of it, until there is a changeover in the Kremlin, and even that might not solve it, but make it worse.  But making a deal with the Russian bear, without the clout to back it up, I think that just encourages bad habits.
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