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WAR?

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    Posted: 09 Aug 2017 at 10:25
North Korean Premier, Kim Jong Un continues his warlike stance against the west with threats and more rocket launches.

His latest threat to launch a missile against Guam, a US Territory, has US President Donald Trump threatening 

One can never be sure of Trump's intentions. He may well order a "Shock and Awe" style attack on North Korea, but if he does, who knows what the response from China and Russia will be.

Some US correspondents are suggesting that war is imminent, within the next six months or so.


Edited by toyomotor - 09 Aug 2017 at 10:26
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Charlie Primero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2017 at 11:51
I'm old enough to have seen this North Korea dog and pony show repeat 6 or 7 times.

It gets tedious after about the fourth repetition.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2017 at 12:24
Originally posted by Charlie Primero Charlie Primero wrote:

I'm old enough to have seen this North Korea dog and pony show repeat 6 or 7 times.

It gets tedious after about the fourth repetition.

Yes, it sure does, but it would be dangerous if the west started to think it was all just talk. I'm not so sure.


Edited by toyomotor - 09 Aug 2017 at 12:24
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote caldrail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2017 at 13:09
It's more likely that North Korea and the US will continue posturing and threatening. Neither side will want to lose face in this, neither side can actually afford the war that some are debating. Recent sanctions are making life difficult for Korea but still not impossible. Korea has only the threat of bigger and longer ranged missiles to effectively blackmail the States into recognising them as a nuclear power and thus inviting the Korean Regime to the Big Table. At worst, the US will attempt targeted strikes, long before a general war is threatened - bear in mind that South Korea is a friend of the west and very vulnerable to northern aggression.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Aug 2017 at 14:43
Originally posted by caldrail caldrail wrote:

It's more likely that North Korea and the US will continue posturing and threatening. Neither side will want to lose face in this, neither side can actually afford the war that some are debating. Recent sanctions are making life difficult for Korea but still not impossible. Korea has only the threat of bigger and longer ranged missiles to effectively blackmail the States into recognising them as a nuclear power and thus inviting the Korean Regime to the Big Table. At worst, the US will attempt targeted strikes, long before a general war is threatened - bear in mind that South Korea is a friend of the west and very vulnerable to northern aggression.

Meanwhile, the more sanctions, the more the common people in North Korea suffer, in the same way the Russians did during the Cold War.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Primero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Aug 2017 at 12:35
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote caldrail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2017 at 11:16
Quote Meanwhile, the more sanctions, the more the common people in North Korea suffer, in the same way the Russians did during the Cold War.
More so than soviet Russia I would have said but then their public suffers under the North Korean regime anyway. But difficult times tend to spawn dissent or pressure to resolve situations which is why sanctions are used in preference  to direct action, seen as not politically correct in an era that looks on gunboat diplomacy with some disapproval (though in fairness, this is usually the stance taken from observers, whilst those engaging in such sabre rattling quite easily defend it)
 
North Korea is threatening America quite openly - the idea is show defiance, like an unruly teenager trying to establish themselves as effective adults - it never actually works like that because adults tend to see such behaviour as boorish or unnecessary and don't respect the errant teenager no matter what violent tantrums he performs to prove himself. North Korea will continue to push their luck - they believe that America will back down and let them in on the Big Table, the whole point of the exercise. It's the 'equalizer' philosophy very familiar to American culture. If both sides have guns, they are equally dangerous, thus both need to arm to feel secure. North Korea is arming itself with nuclear capability and therefore believes it has a right to be equal to the superpowers - and wants that status so it can shove other people around, and in particular, absorb South Korea at the first excuse.
 
America is responding like the sleeping bear it always was. You're threatening us? Seriously? Do you know what big teeth and claws I have? Let me go back to sleep or I'll get angry. Of course angry bears are formidable animals and although the US Navy is proving a little embarrassing right now, the American military is not something you can ignore.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2017 at 21:00
"But, Kim Jong Un, I respect the fact that I believe he is starting to respect us," Trump said at the Tuesday rally. "I respect that fact very much. Respect that fact."



This is the answer. KJU wants to be a cultural icon, if Trump lets him sit closer to the adult table he could mingle with girls, Dennis Rodman and smash stuff. 

Behold the Orange Wisdom toyomotor

Update: In a separate Washington Post interview, Trump also interestingly suggests renegotiating or voiding the United States's trade deal with South Korea -- perhaps a sign to North Korea that the Americans aren't completely in the tank for Seoul.



Edited by Vanuatu - 23 Aug 2017 at 21:09
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Aug 2017 at 03:05
Caldrail
Quote But difficult times tend to spawn dissent or pressure to resolve situations which is why sanctions are used in preference  to direct action, seen as not politically correct in an era that looks on gunboat diplomacy with some disapproval (though in fairness, this is usually the stance taken from observers, whilst those engaging in such sabre rattling quite easily defend it)

I suggest that dissent in North Korea would probably not come to the mind of the average person, given that they are now under the third generation leadership of a family with very harsh meglomaniacal views.

Kim Jong Un uses the UN sanctions to once again reinforce in the minds of the people that the USA is it's sworn enemy and the cause of it's problems, one of the reasons for the missile threats.

Vanuatu

Quote "But, Kim Jong Un, I respect the fact that I believe he is starting to respect us," Trump said at the Tuesday rally. "I respect that fact very much. Respect that fact."

He could be right. Possibly Kim gave it his best shot and was faced down by the US and decided to place his plans for Guam on hold.

Quote This is the answer. KJU wants to be a cultural icon, if Trump lets him sit closer to the adult table he could mingle with girls, Dennis Rodman and smash stuff.

It would be very interesting if Mr Trump or another senior western leader were to invite Kim to a sit down, face to face meeting to discuss their differences. Wouldn't matter where the venue was, as long as it wasn't on the Korean Peninsula.

Quote Behold the Orange Wisdom toyomotor
I don't know what you mean by this.

Quote In a separate Washington Post interview, Trump also interestingly suggests renegotiating or voiding the United States's trade deal with South Korea -- perhaps a sign to North Korea that the Americans aren't completely in the tank for Seoul.
I wouldn't have thought this to be one of his better ideas(!!!) It could be seen as a sign of weakness, and that's not what the western world needs when dealing with Kim.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Aug 2017 at 15:17
Quote I wouldn't have thought this to be one of his better ideas(!!!) It could be seen as a sign of weakness, and that's not what the western world needs when dealing with Kim.

It won't happen. He's giving KGU "Face" after being a pariah. Some respect and acknowledgement might go a long way. Notice Sec of State Tillerson and Trump have recently said publicly that KJU is not insane and that he can probably be reasoned with. Seems to allow KJU to sit at the table without being scolded and embarrassed.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Aug 2017 at 23:53
What about unofficial ambassadors?  Jimmy Carter and Billy Graham visited North Korea in the past, if I recall correctly.  I would not consider Dennis Rodman of their stature.

The President is not going to sit down with Kim Jong Un.  That would be a reward for bad behavior.  Of course, maybe they could face off and wrestle for it....

Kim Jong Un has the support of the military, that is basically his base and he works to reward them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2017 at 03:48
Is it too late to think outside the square?

To invite KJU to a sit down may be seen by some as a reward for bad behaviour, but many others would see it as a genuine attempt to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the Korean problem.

If your President wouldn't be involved in a sitdown, how about another important head of state, perhaps our Prime Minister.

The western world cannot not keep going round in circles on this matter, UN sanctions harm the common people, not the ruling elite of North Korea, threats of military attacks on both sides only serve to inflame the situation.

Forget Denis Rodman et al. Professional politicians/diplomats are needed in this case, people with authority to make things happen.

Is it too late to think outside the square?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2017 at 16:23
Originally posted by franciscosan franciscosan wrote:

What about unofficial ambassadors?  Jimmy Carter and Billy Graham visited North Korea in the past, if I recall correctly.  I would not consider Dennis Rodman of their stature.

The President is not going to sit down with Kim Jong Un.  That would be a reward for bad behavior.  Of course, maybe they could face off and wrestle for it....



You are not KJU, why would he share your admiration of these people? Obviously he does like Dennis Rodman.

Wasn't it KJI, the father who was visited by Carter & Graham?

You don't know that Trump won't sit down with KJU. You are constantly saying how terrible Trump is so maybe if you think he shouldn't-Trump will think he should!


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Aug 2017 at 02:12
Vanuatu

1. What are your thoughts on a surprise invitation from the west to a face to face with Kim Jong UN in order to overcome the decades long tensions?

2. President Trump has indicated that he may send even more troops to Afghanistan.
a. Bearing in mind that it was the western colonial powers that are behind many of the problems in the Middle East by redrawing boundaries without recognising religeous and cultural differences, do you think it's time that this problem was also rectified by the same means?

b. Do you think Afghanistan is doing enough on it's own behalf to get rid of the Taliban-if that's even possible?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote caldrail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2017 at 11:51
Afghanistan is inherently chaotic and populated by people with little interest or knowledge of the outside world. For that matter, the prospect of active and potentially martial purpose in a religious faction can be very appealing to young men who otherwise have a very hard and unrewarding life to look forward to. Add to the that the influence of charismatic leaders, or leaders offering incentives, and the idea that Islamic radicalism can be swept away with another occupation of western troops - however effective - is difficult to believe.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2017 at 14:13
Originally posted by caldrail caldrail wrote:

Afghanistan is inherently chaotic and populated by people with little interest or knowledge of the outside world. For that matter, the prospect of active and potentially martial purpose in a religious faction can be very appealing to young men who otherwise have a very hard and unrewarding life to look forward to. Add to the that the influence of charismatic leaders, or leaders offering incentives, and the idea that Islamic radicalism can be swept away with another occupation of western troops - however effective - is difficult to believe.

I agree, foreigners have tried before and failed miserably. Should the US simply withdraw all troops like Russia did?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2017 at 19:43
Vanuatu, yes and Rodman is not of the stature of Carter or Graham, is there anyone else?

I assume that President Trump is smart enough to listen to his State Department on North Korea.  It is not that it is a bad idea for Trump, it is a bad idea for any President.

Toyomotor, when do former colonial powers (which Afghanistan was never one), start taking responsibility for their own actions?  When does the claim, "it is not our fault, it was the colonial oppressor's fault," expire?  Are they ever going to grow up?  or does this go on forever?

"Little interest or knowledge of the outside world."  Interesting, we could say that what happens in Afghanistan stays in Afghanistan, but then again, that would not be true.  The Taliban knew enough of the outside world to support Al Quida.  When 9/11 happened the United States said "give them up" to which the Taliban said "if we did, we would not be good hosts."  If you have a solution that will solve the problem, love to hear it.  It is a tangle.  Leave it alone, and hope it goes away doesn't seem to solve the support of international terrorist organizations.  Pakistan complicates Afghanistan, and India and Iran complicate Pakistan.  And nuclear weapons complicate the whole thing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2017 at 20:06
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Vanuatu

1. What are your thoughts on a surprise invitation from the west to a face to face with Kim Jong UN in order to overcome the decades long tensions?
I think that if a location can be secured and KJU is willing then Trump should absolutely meet with him. Time to try something different with NoKo, either talk or end game.


Quote
2. President Trump has indicated that he may send even more troops to Afghanistan.
a. Bearing in mind that it was the western colonial powers that are behind many of the problems in the Middle East by redrawing boundaries without recognising religeous and cultural differences, do you think it's time that this problem was also rectified by the same means?

b. Do you think Afghanistan is doing enough on it's own behalf to get rid of the Taliban-if that's even possible?

So many historical examples of hell following in the spaces we just choose to withdraw from without leaving a structure in place to maintain peace. 
If we are going to relinquish Afghanistan consider it Chinese territory. They already have Pakistan.
I don't think our country will leave Afghanistan in my  lifetime. Redrawing lines of demarcation has pretty much been openly mocked and is not considered effective among the high ranking military experts. The only borders that matter are those that the Afghans recognize as borderlines.

Afghans will always be fighting two wars. One war against the Taliban/Pakistan Intelligence and one against the US. 

No, Afghans are not doing enough bc they are not united. The US  treaty with Afghanistan won't end until 2024. Even then you still have ethnic Pashtuns on both sides of the Taliban fight. If Al Qaeda and ISIS cease to function; is there still something to fight over?


Edited by Vanuatu - 27 Aug 2017 at 20:08
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 2017 at 01:14
Quote If Al Qaeda and ISIS cease to function; is there still something to fight over?

I reckon so.

Tribal Afghans, not only the Pashtuns but also:-
Some of these tribes do not accept the Kabul government, regardless of who is in power and will ignore the laws.

There is infighting between the tribes over the opium and weapons trades.

My conceern at the moment is more focused on the China Sea region and the Korean Peninsula where, IMHO, one tiny mistake could unleash the torrent of war.





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 2017 at 22:47
Pakistan has a rivalry with India, who seems to be allied with Iran, so it makes sense that Pakistan would seek Chinese support, (maybe).  Karzai (who is no longer president) and ?the Pashtuns? were friendly to India, so Pakistani intelligence has a motive to keep Afghanistan destabilized, or at least they did 8 years ago.
True toyomotor, although we have a not so "low intensity conflict" already happening in Afghanistan, and Pakistan.  Both areas have nuclear weapons around.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 01:18
Franciscosan
Quote Pakistan has a rivalry with India, who seems to be allied with Iran, so it makes sense that Pakistan would seek Chinese support, (maybe).  Karzai (who is no longer president) and ?the Pashtuns? were friendly to India, so Pakistani intelligence has a motive to keep Afghanistan destabilized, or at least they did 8 years ago.

Yes, and in the mountains, the Indian Army regularly exchanges artillery fire with the Chinese Army, so China could probably support Pakistan against India.

But I can't recall a period in modern history (if ever) that Afghanistan was not unruly with inter-tribal and cross border fighting. The English tried to subdue it, the Russians limped home with tails between their legs and the Coalition of the Willing aren't faring much better.

In the current conflict, the Pakistanis have shown themselves to be two faced, and not to be trusted by the allies.

I'm starting the think that all western forces should simply pull out and let them settle it themselves.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 02:06
Didn't we already do that?  After the Soviets left Afghanistan.  We said things are over, and left our allies in the region high and dry, until things festered, the Taliban and others came to power, and Al Quada set up shop.  That all came to roost on 9/11.  So, we can see how well, "simply pull out and let them settle it themselves" worked out the first time around.  Do you think that doing it a second time has the promise of different results?

Afghanistan was pretty nice until the Soviets came in and messed it up, I mean besides probably always cultivating poppies.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 03:22
Growing poppies might be the most effective commercial enterprise ever in Afghanistan. It seems that too much blood and treasure has been spent for the effort to be abandoned abruptly. And if troops were reduced to the point of making the US soldiers more vulnerable, the now emboldened VA and supporters would go ballistic. Trump won't be the one to end things there, IMHO.

Maybe the Chinese would rather raise hell in the mountains of Pakistan instead of territory closer to home. In the Unauthorized biography of KJU, he is on film taking individual photos with dozens of female military recruits. Kind of like a celebrity would here in US.

Kim Jung IL his father would never have done that says the narrator. The grandfather, Kim Il Sung, did not grow up during a time of poverty and famine and was quite different from KJI. 

It is said that KJU is more like his grandfather. I know Rodman doesn't have diplomatic stature around the world but just like borderlines drawn by an enemy invader, some things just get lost in translation. I'm not sure what the interest in Rodman is I just see that it persists!


Edited by Vanuatu - 29 Aug 2017 at 03:23
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 04:49
Vanuatu
Quote Growing poppies might be the most effective commercial enterprise ever in Afghanistan.

If that's all there was to it, I'd agree, but as we know, pretty purple popple flowers turn into capsules laden with what will become heroin and it's derivatives, to cause misery all over the world. If all of the crops could be diverted to the legitimate production of morphine etc. that would be a good thing all round.

Quote
 It seems that too much blood and treasure has been spent for the effort to be abandoned abruptly. And if troops were reduced to the point of making the US soldiers more vulnerable, the now emboldened VA and supporters would go ballistic

Yes, and me among them. I'm not saying a piece meal withdrawal, as it would leave troops extremely vulnerable, my comment wasn't really meant as a serious alternative but as a goal to be achieved sooner rather than later.

Quote Maybe the Chinese would rather raise hell in the mountains of Pakistan instead of territory closer to home.

Don't know.
Quote https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/india-withdraws-troops-from-disputed-himalayan-region-defusing-tension-with-china/2017/08/28/b92fddb6-8bc7-11e7-a2b0-e68cbf0b1f19_story.html?utm_term=.66fd4ebeaed6
  

BEIJING — India and China have withdrawn troops from a disputed Himalayan region on their border, foreign ministries from the two countries announced Monday, defusing a tense standoff that had threatened to provoke armed conflict between the nuclear-armed Asian rivals.(Extract Only)

It could be that relations between India and China are on the improve.

I don't know why China would want to intervene in Afghanistan where others have failed.

AFAIK, Rodman is a has been basketball player, no more. That he has a friendship with Kim Joing Un is neither here nor there. Why should there be interest in him?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 05:38
Quote http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-29/north-koreas-latest-move-is-a-risky-one/8851776
When the North Koreans decided to fire an intermediate-range missile over northern Japan, they took a big gamble. How far could they push the United States before it reacts with anything other than words?

A few days earlier the regime fired three short-range missiles as the annual US-South Korean war games got underway. That provocation was largely ignored.

But this is different. Tuesday's launch was probably of one of the new Hwasong-12 missiles that the North had threatened to fire towards Guam.

On Tuesday North Korea fired a missile over the Japanese island of Hokkaido.

The situation is escalating even further, but Russia and China still refuse to intercede, opposing the US stance on North Korea.

North Korea's continual intimidation of Japan and through it, the USA, must stop. The military option is almost unthinkable, the loss of lives in both North and South Korea would be disasterous.

But how long must the west sit on it's collective hands and wait? Until a missile lands in the heart of Tokyo?

Perhaps the good old "Shock and Awe" could be an answer, I don't know, but I do know that Kim Jong Un is pushing the right buttons to start an all out war. 




Edited by toyomotor - 29 Aug 2017 at 08:21
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 15:33
toyomotor
Quote It could be that relations between India and China are on the improve.

I don't know why China would want to intervene in Afghanistan where others have failed.

It could be improving or the strategy wasn't working. I don't say China will  intervene in the way the US has but in the quest for expanded empire they could be pulling strings. Just as they do all over the Korean Peninsula. If they use Pakistan against India and Afghanistan in cold war fashion, China could be effective . Who know what secrets are being bought and sold as we speak?

Aghanistan has access our equipment, and the technology can be reversed and used against anyone. Everything the US brought to Afghanistan will be used-the training methods, tactical development and strategic organization

Quote AFAIK, Rodman is a has been basketball player, no more. That he has a friendship with Kim Joing Un is neither here nor there. Why should there be interest in him?

All I'm saying about Rodman is -KJU has chosen him as a friend(?) or what ever their relationship is, it was obviously a choice by KJU. I know Rodman isn't a statesman and that's not my point. 
KJU loves the cult and culture of famous people. Rodman is notorious & so is KJU. So is Trump. The typical American politician will be toxic, KJU chose an American outlaw to be his friend(?). This is insight into the person behind the regime(cross-dresser), I think Trump could talk to him. And he's obviously looking for more attention.


Edited by Vanuatu - 29 Aug 2017 at 15:34
The root of all desires is the one desire: to come home, to be at peace. -Jean Klein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Aug 2017 at 01:06
Vanuatu
Quote Aghanistan has access our equipment, and the technology can be reversed and used against anyone. Everything the US brought to Afghanistan will be used-the training methods, tactical development and strategic organization.

I agree, and that's always a problem, what to do? I don't know.

Quote
All I'm saying about Rodman is -KJU has chosen him as a friend(?) or what ever their relationship is, it was obviously a choice by KJU. I know Rodman isn't a statesman and that's not my point. 
KJU loves the cult and culture of famous people. Rodman is notorious & so is KJU. So is Trump. The typical American politician will be toxic, KJU chose an American outlaw to be his friend(?). This is insight into the person behind the regime(cross-dresser), I think Trump could talk to him. And he's obviously looking for more attention.

Not arguing with you there. I read somewhere a while ago that KJU, who has been to the USA, is envious of the culture and would like it for himself. That he has chosen Rodman as a friend could be his misguided view of the culture.

I'd still like to see what happened if one of the western leaders invited him to a sit down.

Think outside the square!
Once you eliminate the impossible,
whatever remains,
no matter how improbable, must be the truth.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Aug 2017 at 05:01
...or maybe think outside the proletariat wear and let KJU slip  into some nice silky stockings.
The root of all desires is the one desire: to come home, to be at peace. -Jean Klein
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