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We Never Saw it Coming

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    Posted: 20 Mar 2018 at 22:11
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-selfdriving-uber/self-driving-uber-car-kills-arizona-woman-crossing-street-idUSKBN1GV296

Self-driving Uber car kills Arizona woman crossing street

So-called robot cars, when fully developed by companies including Uber, Alphabet Inc and General Motors Co, are expected to drastically cut down on motor vehicle fatalities and create billion-dollar businesses. But Monday’s accident underscored the possible challenges ahead for the promising technology as the cars confront real-world situations involving real people.

We are not the Jetsons yet. 
Behold the prognostication-





Edited by Vanuatu - 20 Mar 2018 at 22:13
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Mar 2018 at 00:20
Some time ago, on another thread, I cautioned against the use of computer controlled, unmanned vehicles, vessels and aircraft, due to the possibility of them being hacked.

In this case, there's no evidence of hacking, but a warning that the technology is not yet perfected, if it ever will be!

I read recently on New Atlas that, in the US, they're ready to unleash unmanned semi-trailers onto the highways. Not a good idea. 

There will always be circumstances that arise, which require human intervention in the blink of an eye.

War fighters now, or in the very near future, will have access to unmanned submarines, warships, aircraft and possibly tanks. If they save human lives, all well and good, but if they get hacked.........
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Mar 2018 at 02:05
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Some time ago, on another thread, I cautioned against the use of computer controlled, unmanned vehicles, vessels and aircraft, due to the possibility of them being hacked.

In this case, there's no evidence of hacking, but a warning that the technology is not yet perfected, if it ever will be!

I read recently on New Atlas that, in the US, they're ready to unleash unmanned semi-trailers onto the highways. Not a good idea. 

There will always be circumstances that arise, which require human intervention in the blink of an eye.

War fighters now, or in the very near future, will have access to unmanned submarines, warships, aircraft and possibly tanks. If they save human lives, all well and good, but if they get hacked.........

-wow, had not heard about the plan for semi trucks. Hmm. Of course they will be hacked!
 -surrender control of our planet to machines!

The only way I can imagine the blind driver not getting killed is if it's on a set course, enclosed rail.
This is really stupid. 
toyomotor, how did it all get so absurd?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Mar 2018 at 03:04
Greed, avarice, power. That's what it's all about.

Making vehicles autonomous serves two main purposes, IMO.

1. Does away with the human factors such as wages etc; human errors; inefficiency.

2. The person/people controlling the machines will control manufacturing, markets and eventually, the economy.

On the other side of the coin, all of the workers laid off due to the implementation of autonomous technology will not be able to gain employment, as robots take over their roles. And there is technology, if not now, on the horizon which will take over just about every human function in the work force, even in medicine. 

How to support all of the unemployed? I don't think that governments are looking that far into the future, but they should be.
 
How to tamper proof the technology-and I mean tamper proof? See above.

To date, whatever measures have been made in securing computerisation have been just as quickly undone by hackers, in the main. Just imagine a high tech unmanned semi-trailer gone rogue on the highways, or a number of them simultaneously, cities and town could be held to ransom, the possibilities are many.

By all means built autonomous machines which can go to war, but, as every day transport, no.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Mar 2018 at 03:46
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Greed, avarice, power. That's what it's all about.

Making vehicles autonomous serves two main purposes, IMO.

1. Does away with the human factors such as wages etc; human errors; inefficiency.

2. The person/people controlling the machines will control manufacturing, markets and eventually, the economy.

On the other side of the coin, all of the workers laid off due to the implementation of autonomous technology will not be able to gain employment, as robots take over their roles. And there is technology, if not now, on the horizon which will take over just about every human function in the work force, even in medicine. 

How to support all of the unemployed? I don't think that governments are looking that far into the future, but they should be.
 
How to tamper proof the technology-and I mean tamper proof? See above.

To date, whatever measures have been made in securing computerisation have been just as quickly undone by hackers, in the main. Just imagine a high tech unmanned semi-trailer gone rogue on the highways, or a number of them simultaneously, cities and town could be held to ransom, the possibilities are many.

By all means built autonomous machines which can go to war, but, as every day transport, no.


Humans can't stop building things! Until those "things" start pushing back.
 
Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates and FaceBook- boy have been proposing a "Living Wage." They don't see a future where people have jobs and pensions or even social security.

I do agree this is about money and power. There won't be jobs. People will be used in some way, it will come down to earning one's right to exist.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Mar 2018 at 11:26
Quote I do agree this is about money and power. There won't be jobs. People will be used in some way, it will come down to earning one's right to exist.

Would you agree that in some cases, many poor buggers have lost that right already?

Scenario:

The world population is increasing. Prophecies are already in the making that in the mid 2020's there will not be sufficient resources with which to feed the people. Those people have obviously not heard about Africa, India and even some parts of China.

Computerisation has taken over control of factory, manufacturing, farming and many other workers functions. Millions of more people are unemployed, homeless and have no income, because the governments cannot raise enough taxes to pay an overbearing welfare bill, they are starving and crime is rife.

Police and law enforcement are cut back, as is the Armed Forces Budgets, and then it arrives in full force-ANARCHY!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Mar 2018 at 03:18
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Quote I do agree this is about money and power. There won't be jobs. People will be used in some way, it will come down to earning one's right to exist.

Would you agree that in some cases, many poor buggers have lost that right already?
Of course but when it happens in developed countries who is going to feed them/us? 
No one right?
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Scenario:

The world population is increasing. Prophecies are already in the making that in the mid 2020's there will not be sufficient resources with which to feed the people. Those people have obviously not heard about Africa, India and even some parts of China.

Computerisation has taken over control of factory, manufacturing, farming and many other workers functions. Millions of more people are unemployed, homeless and have no income, because the governments cannot raise enough taxes to pay an overbearing welfare bill, they are starving and crime is rife.

Police and law enforcement are cut back, as is the Armed Forces Budgets, and then it arrives in full force-ANARCHY!!
Sounds about right. 
Uber idiot "Human safety operator" was a convicted, violent felon, seen on dash cam looking down at the moment he killed women on bicycle. So glad FaceBook is running things now.
 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Mar 2018 at 01:28
There is an article in a recent Smithsonian about Paul Ehrlich's "The Population Bomb" and how third world tyrants used it as an excuse to go after civil rights activists.  "The Population Bomb" was wrong in 1968, but in crying fire, a lot of people got burned.  Famines tend to be caused by oppressive regimes, not lack of food.  Population may complicate things, but not what alarmists think it means.

With population, I worry about animals, and pressure on habitats.  Do rhinos have a right to exist?  Or is it another species that we need to just kiss goodbye?  I would prefer a few less people and a few more rhinos.  Of course, not having an expanding economy causes other problems.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Mar 2018 at 04:21
Franciscosan

And just how does all of the above relate to unmanned vehicles, vessels and aircraft?

As far as I can see, you've gone of on another of your well known tangents.Dead
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Mar 2018 at 21:26
"Scenario:

The world population is increasing. Prophecies are already in the making that in the mid 2020's there will not be sufficient resources with which to feed the people. Those people have obviously not heard about Africa, India and even some parts of China."

I don't know, I am just responding to your sky-is-falling philosophy.  If you are wrong about the population problem (like The Population Bomb was), then I wonder what else you are wrong about.  Clap

and I see you as opening the door which I merely walked in.  You were the one bringing up population.

I know, autonomous vehicles are coming, and they will save lives.  Everybody thinks they're a good driver, fact is, 50% are below average.  and that doesn't mean the ones above average are that good either. t don't like the idea of autonomous vehicles, but the way most people drive, autonomous vehicles would be better, plus they don't drive stoned or drunk.  Give it a little time, and autonomous drivers will be better than all but the best.  Probably the hardest thing for them to deal with is human unpredictability.  In other words, stupid things that humans will do.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 00:23
There you go again, more ad hominem.

Quote I don't know, I am just responding to your sky-is-falling philosophy.

And you're wrong again! That's not my philosophy at all, I merely posted facts, which you rarely do.

An unmanned vehicle has recently been involved in a fatal crash, that should prove that the technology needs further work. Nor am I against autonomous vehicles etc, per se, but I'd like to know that the technology was safe and couldn't be hacked.

As for the population, Google it yourself, it isn't that hard.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 20:19
If you say there will not be sufficient resources, and I say that you are alarmist, then that is not an ad hominem account.

What do you mean, "merely posted facts" are you a demographer?  "not sufficient resources" is not a fact, it is a value judgment.

So the population is a number, 6 or so billion, what it _means_ is an entirely different question.  Like I said, I am concerned about animals, which people tend to think of as superfluous.

The technology of _manned_ vehicles is still undergoing work, so yes, unmanned vehicles need further work.  But, in the time of one unmanned fatality, there has probably been 1000 manned fatalities, most due to operator error.  The question is not whether unmanned vehicles are safe, the question is, are they _more_ safe, and safe enough for us to emotionally relinquish our illusion of control? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Mar 2018 at 01:52
Originally posted by franciscosan franciscosan wrote:

The technology of _manned_ vehicles is still undergoing work, so yes, unmanned vehicles need further work.  But, in the time of one unmanned fatality, there has probably been 1000 manned fatalities, most due to operator error.  The question is not whether unmanned vehicles are safe, the question is, are they _more_ safe, and safe enough for us to emotionally relinquish our illusion of control? 

Further work, yes hmmm.
In fact there are no known successful unmanned studies since they can't be conducted without safety drivers. Again, it's Uber here. Banned for good reason all over the world. 
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Just because the jet fighter pilot has a parachute, doesn't mean he is going to use it.  Unmanned studies are conducted with safety drivers for liability reasons, not necessarily because the software is bad.

One thing that will happen is, for example if a semi has a scene on it, that has a sky, the computer can get confused, or reflections can cause problems.  Including, I suppose, ice or water on a surface.

The experiments that I know of are semis hauling Coors beer between Fort Collins and Colorado Springs, and yes they do safety drivers.  But, I think all the major car companies are experimenting with it.  Yes, it does feel like Terminator rise of the robots, or something, but I think it will happen, and we will get used to it.  I think human drivers will become an elite, and rare, the rest of us (over time) will use robot cabs, or buses. or hover bikes:)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Mar 2018 at 02:01
As a ball park comment, I think that autonomous ships and aircraft would probably be far more safe than autonomous motor vehicles, due to the lack of traffic. 

If autonomous or semi-autonomous vehicles are to be allowed to use our roads, the security of the systems needs to be hacker-proof-obviously, but also there will need to be changes to the roads and highways that they use.

That there has only been one fatality involving an autonomous vehicle is not the point. The point is, especially when talking about heavy transport, they have to be fast and efficient, within the bounds of the law, and safe.

I'm not yet convinced of the need for such vehicles in civilian life, for the Armed Forces, certainly, if the autonomous vehicles vessels and aircraft can be used to prosecute an armed conflict, minimising the loss of human life, so be it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Mar 2018 at 02:19
I don't see the need for this either. All over the country the infrastructure is crumbling, we hear this daily.
Unmanned vehicles will never travel on the same roads as human drivers in my life time. 
toyomotor said it, too much human unpredictability. Those vehicles may get their own tracks above or below traffic with human drivers. Eventually it will be all machine operated.

Biggest take away for me is the criminal disregard that Uber has shown regarding safety for their drivers and customers all over the world. Hiring convicted felons who are on camera proudly not doing their jobs, is deviant behavior.
There are numerous videos showing people being run down by driver-less vehicles, it's a KNOWN_DISTINCT_ POSSIBILITY.
Soo sick of these science projects harming the public! No One Need Die for ****ing Uber!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Mar 2018 at 22:29
Finally looked at the clip, I'll bet the car said to it self, "if the idiot is just going to stand there, I think I'll run him over!"

My cousin ran over someone late on a stormy night, walking in the middle of the road, it was ruled not her fault.  Of course, it still shook her up, as it should.  Yes, there is a lot of human unpredictability, and human stupidity, and then there will be people who will drive offensively around unmanned vehicles, because they assume they can bully the programs.  An AI is not going to come back at you with road rage, after you run it off the road, although maybe it should. 

If you are worried about felons driving Uber, then unmanned vehicles could well be the answer.  Problem is that for most of America, you need a car to get around.  You can get around cities outside the East, using public transportation, but you cannot get around well.  What if you replace the bottom 10% of drivers with unmanned vehicles, plus the 20 % that cannot drive at all?  Furthermore, you can make the driving training more strict because people don't "have" to have a car anymore.

Such a system will not be perfect, but it would be better than what we have now, and it would not be static, but grow and develop.  But, no, I don't think that the U.S.A would be the first to develop it, because we (including me) have a Western paranoia about robots.  The Japanese are very comfortable about robots because they don't particularly, culturally, believe in a soul.  The West believes that humans have a soul, and often that animals have a soul, and therefore look at it a little creepy that some thang (robot) is "moving on its own."  The soul gives movement and growth in Western culture, and has a spiritual significance.  But, for the Japanese, robots are not "soulless" because there really isn't for them, a soul at all.

The worst year in traffic accidents in the US was something like 1909, enough cars on the roads, and no-one knew how to drive+ horses, and pedestrians.  But the US has a lot of traffic accidents now, and puts up with them, basically because there is no other option.  But, Honda, and GM, and Ford are putting big money into an alternative, and yes, Uber is too, despite all its other problems.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Mar 2018 at 04:01
Some companies already scaling back timing and testing on their self driving cars, Uber got rid of safety sensors on their cars two years ago. Their cars have trouble in the same terrain and they knew that- then still reduced human safety drivers to one. Negligent, hope they are litigated out of existence.  

All was not well with Uber’s self-driving car project before the fatal crash this past Sunday in Arizona, which has prompted widespread criticism of the ride-hailing giant’s approach to autonomous vehicle development and forced the company to pause much of its operations surrounding the technology.
This included issues that involved operators of the fleet of Volvo XC90s — like the one that killed 49-year-old Elaine Herzberg in Tempe, Arizona on Sunday — to intervene more often than engineers expected, something that seriously threatened to delay the company’s implementation of self-driving technology. 


Edited by Vanuatu - 29 Mar 2018 at 04:01
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Mar 2018 at 01:09
I think that the rush to automate many human functions will not serve us (humanity) well into the future.

Ignoring Franciscosans vacuous diatribe above, IMHO, humans must have some worthwhile activity, a worthwhile role to play in the community, it's what makes it a community. If robots take away many of the jobs now performed by humans there won't be jobs to replace them and humankind will simply become an irrelevance.

The thought of robots having the intelligence to build and direct other robots is a scary thought indeed.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Mar 2018 at 03:49
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

I think that the rush to automate many human functions will not serve us (humanity) well into the future.

Ignoring Franciscosans vacuous diatribe above, IMHO, humans must have some worthwhile activity, a worthwhile role to play in the community, it's what makes it a community. If robots take away many of the jobs now performed by humans there won't be jobs to replace them and humankind will simply become an irrelevance.

The thought of robots having the intelligence to build and direct other robots is a scary thought indeed.


Being cyborgs would be good. I wouldn't say no to a bionic knee or kidney. You have mentioned the medical advances, AI -nano machines will fill the blood stream and remove disease.
Or of course, world domination in the Age of Machines. Humans can't help but build things. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Mar 2018 at 09:26
Quote Humans can't help but build things.

Yep, and far too many of them kill far too many people-cars, guns for example.

As to the OP, I think perhaps we did see it coming. Many of us are of an age where we can remember things like Dick Tracy with his wrist 'phone, Flash Gordon and moon rockets and so on. But such inventions were simply beyond our comprehension, they couldn't ever become real, could they?

Technology has advanced with such speed that we get only glimpses of what could be before it becomes fact. Minute robots churning through our bodies to perform some life changing surgery are fact-NOW. Artificial body parts are fact, transplanting organs from animals to humans is fact.

I don't have much doubt that autonomous vehicles on our roads will become fact as soon as the technology and infrastructure are made safe.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Mar 2018 at 13:00
Originally posted by toyomotor toyomotor wrote:

Quote Humans can't help but build things.

Yep, and far too many of them kill far too many people-cars, guns for example.

As to the OP, I think perhaps we did see it coming. Many of us are of an age where we can remember things like Dick Tracy with his wrist 'phone, Flash Gordon and moon rockets and so on. But such inventions were simply beyond our comprehension, they couldn't ever become real, could they?

Wink
For me it was the Johnny Quest wrist watch. LOL. Some of the language is shocking from those old cartoons. Lately my kid wants to watch movies from the 1980's, hehehe she can't believe how politically incorrect we were.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Mar 2018 at 22:05
Do you suppose robots will let us have "a worthwhile role in the community"?  Maybe we should ask their permission first.....  I would assume that humans _are_ the community.  I don't worry about robots ever learning how to 'think.'  Moreso, I worry about people believing that what the robot does is thinking, and thus people unconsciously limiting themselves in how they "think."

Since when has man "needed" things that are invented?  The smart phone came first, and then millions of people figured out that they couldn't "live without it".  Life existed before Facebook, twitter, google, amazon, and it wasn't half bad.  It is not that automated cars are "needed."  I just don't think that you are going to be able to put the genie back in the bottle.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Apr 2018 at 00:50
Quote  The smart phone came first,...

How about the very basic computers which replaced Cash Registers?

Automated ticketing was up there too.

Go back to the Industrial Revolution, that's when it all started.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Apr 2018 at 04:35
Quote Since when has man "needed" things that are invented?

Right about the time another country has a new tech thing. US & China are going to the mat with AI. Chinese police use AI glasses to find fugitives in crowds through face recognition tech.  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Apr 2018 at 04:45
Quote How about the very basic computers which replaced Cash Registers?
toyomotor, did the police have portable telephones in cars after WW2? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Apr 2018 at 07:59
Originally posted by Vanuatu Vanuatu wrote:

Quote How about the very basic computers which replaced Cash Registers?
toyomotor, did the police have portable telephones in cars after WW2? 

I think the US implemented mobile radio communications in about the early 1930's, so the answer is yes.

From memory, European police were a lot slower to have radios in their cars, but a few in the UK had Morse radio facilities back as far as the late 1920's.

When you say portable telephones, the big, bulky sending/receiving equipment was mounted in the boot or the back seat. Cables ran to the front seat with the handset, early ones shaped like a telephone, mounted on or near the dash board.

(When I was a rookie walking the beat, we had no radios and had to contact the station from a Police Telephone Box-which was locked to the public. If we arrested someone, say for drunken behaviour, it was usually the case that you would drag them kicking and fighting all the way back to the police station. In the UK and some other places, like France, the police were issued with whistles with which to summon assistance.)


Edited by toyomotor - 01 Apr 2018 at 08:05
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vanuatu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2018 at 14:29
Sudden fleets of driver-less cars? 
Will people even be allowed to drive once we are no longer needed for manual labor?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote franciscosan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2018 at 21:37
Yep!  You guessed it.  Probably only important people as part of their security detail would have human drivers.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toyomotor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2018 at 06:00

Quote from https://www.google.com.au/search?=maslow%27s+hierarchy+of+needs&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBAU786AU786&oq=Mazlo&aqs=chrome.2.69i57j0l5.6340j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 Maslow proposed that motivation is the result of a person's attempt at fulfilling five basic needs: physiological, safety, social, esteem and self-actualization.

If we accept Maslow's Theory, the takeover of human roles by automatons would result in non-satisfaction of most of our basic needs.

I don't think that I need to go into each of the categories to explain why we wouldn't meet those needs. Human kind would, in the main, become irrelevant, with only a few being employed to serve the needs of the automaton-engineering; writing new code; ironing out bugs, and so on.

What then?

It's not that I was born in Ireland,
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