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What is special about this era in history?

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fantasus View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Dec 2009 at 07:00
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

Wow, we really have some ancient people here.
 
As for what defines this era, well it is the uncertainty of the future. Back in the 20s and 30s people knew that in several years war will happen. After that they knew the world will be divided between east and west and that decolonization was a matter of time. Now nobody knows where the world is heading now.
It seems a big illusion people back in 20s and 30s were in any particular privileged position to "predict" what would happen in any detail, though war already then perhaps seemed likely.
But who would be the adversaries, and how would it end and what would be the resulting order?
- And it seems war would be an even more absurd activity than many already think it is , if the loosers knew in advance, and still went into it(of course they vainly expect to win normally).
But perhaps most of us have only later personal experiences.
We perhaps now tend to forget that in the years of Soviet/Western rivalry and so called "Cold War" people were not at all that certain of how it would end and when. When it came it probably came as a big surprise for the vast majority.
 
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

The US is strong, China is strong, Russia is growing and spreading influence and the only thing that seems to move things is the economy (just as it was back in the 1800s as some of you rememberLOL).
 
One thing is for certain however, Oil! By 2030 Saudi Arabia will probably cease to be an exporter and will become a net importer of the black gold. World reserves will be in Central Asia rather than the gulf and that will be the hotspot since it is just around the corner from China and here is where the next world war will be fought.
 
Al-Jassas
 
If anything I think in the later years there have been less turning things "upside down", and more continuity than in much of the rest of last century.
But You have a point oil may become less abundant, probably like some other ressources.
Most of the extreme rapid growth from 20th century of populations, production, technologies and sciences may very well come to an end(an anomaly in history).
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Al Jassas View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Dec 2009 at 07:03
Israel will disappear off the map (and religion won't play anything with it) sooner or later (probably by 2030), it is just another mistake of history that will be corrected and just to be fair, there are many other mistakes that will be corrected too.
 
A for Central Asia not turning into a world war, well lets see, WWI began with the assassination of a crown prince in Sarajevo and ended up by a massive world wide action. WWII began as a war between Germany and Poland and it too turned out to be a world war. Central Asia is thought to have more oil than in Saudi Arabia currently. Siberia is also expected to have lots of oil that hasn't been discovered yet and with the way China/SEA is growing, there is no doubt they will unite against Russia/EU/US in the fight for it. This is in essense a world war.
 
Al-Jassas


Edited by Al Jassas - 18 Dec 2009 at 07:07
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fantasus View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Dec 2009 at 07:33
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

Israel will disappear off the map (and religion won't play anything with it) sooner or later (probably by 2030), it is just another mistake of history that will be corrected and just to be fair, there are many other mistakes that will be corrected too.
 
A for Central Asia not turning into a world war, well lets see, WWI began with the assassination of a crown prince in Sarajevo and ended up by a massive world wide action. WWII began as a war between Germany and Poland and it too turned out to be a world war. Central Asia is thought to have more oil than in Saudi Arabia currently. Siberia is also expected to have lots of oil that hasn't been discovered yet and with the way China/SEA is growing, there is no doubt they will unite against Russia/EU/US in the fight for it. This is in essense a world war.
 
Al-Jassas
Though strictly the future was not the original topic I will express an opinion.
I would not be so sure of anything of it, except perhaps the point of dwindling oil ressources. Regime changes in especially China, Russia, Iran and much of Middle East in the coming decades seems not unlikely. There may be some settlement between Middle Eastern/Northafrican and western countries, though the later may only unwillingly accept it - especially muslems may face they are only one group of humanity without elevated status.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote drgonzaga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Dec 2009 at 10:02
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

Wow, we really have some ancient people here.
 
As for what defines this era, well it is the uncertainty of the future. Back in the 20s and 30s people knew that in several years war will happen. After that they knew the world will be divided between east and west and that decolonization was a matter of time. Now nobody knows where the world is heading now.
 
The US is strong, China is strong, Russia is growing and spreading influence and the only thing that seems to move things is the economy (just as it was back in the 1800s as some of you rememberLOL).
 
One thing is for certain however, Oil! By 2030 Saudi Arabia will probably cease to be an exporter and will become a net importer of the black gold. World reserves will be in Central Asia rather than the gulf and that will be the hotspot since it is just around the corner from China and here is where the next world war will be fought.
 
Al-Jassas
 
 
Having been counted among the Ancient Ones (Shades of Sargon!), unless one is a Nostradamus freak, knowledge of what the "future" will bring will only result in a slew of discredited prophets! Besides, a rush into the Trans-Oxus is but "old" news!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Omar al Hashim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Dec 2009 at 10:36
Quote Regime changes in especially China, Russia, Iran and much of Middle East in the coming decades seems not unlikely

Regime change in China seems unlikely. It seems more probable that it would continue on its current path of slowly liberalising.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Dec 2009 at 21:17
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

Israel will disappear off the map (and religion won't play anything with it) sooner or later (probably by 2030), it is just another mistake of history that will be corrected and just to be fair, there are many other mistakes that will be corrected too.
 
A for Central Asia not turning into a world war,
My point was that if the fighting only took place in Central Asia, it wouldn't be a world war. Any dispute anywhere in the right circumstances has the possibility of turning into a world war, which is a different matter.
Quote
well lets see, WWI began with the assassination of a crown prince in Sarajevo and ended up by a massive world wide action. WWII began as a war between Germany and Poland and it too turned out to be a world war.
WWII began with the invasion of China by Japan, just as it ended with the Japanese surrender.
Quote
 Central Asia is thought to have more oil than in Saudi Arabia currently. Siberia is also expected to have lots of oil that hasn't been discovered yet and with the way China/SEA is growing, there is no doubt they will unite against Russia/EU/US in the fight for it. This is in essense a world war.
 
Al-Jassas
To qualify as a world war fighting has to take place in at least several areas world-wide, as for instance the Seven Years War of 1756-63 in Europe, America (north, south and Caribbean), parts of Africa and India.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carcharodon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Dec 2009 at 21:36
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

Israel will disappear off the map (and religion won't play anything with it) sooner or later (probably by 2030), it is just another mistake of history that will be corrected and just to be fair, there are many other mistakes that will be corrected too. 
Al-Jassas
 
Do not think that Israel will dissapear so easily. As long as it has some support from the US and other western countries it will be there.
 
And if it should dissapear, where should all people living there go?
 
There is also the scenario that peace talks and negotiations finally succeed so that Israel and its neighbours can live in some sort of harmony (at least for a while. Eternal harmony in this infected region of the world would maybe be to much to hope for).


Edited by Carcharodon - 18 Dec 2009 at 21:38
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Dec 2009 at 23:52
Israel has no water and all the water it currently steels from occupied territories isn't enough to water its current population let alone the 15 million people who will be living on Palestine in 2030 8 milion of them are Arabs and 40-45% of Israel's own citizens will also be Arab (meaning we might see an Arab PM then). So yes, Israel as we know will end.
 
On the issue of water, water wars will dominate the middle east with Arab countries thirsty and grossly overpopulated and all the water in Turkey and Iran, there will definitely be water wars probably as early as the middle 2020s.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Dec 2009 at 00:31
Unless there's a breakthrough in desalination?
 
Also I'm sure there are a lot of countries willing to swap water for oil at the right price.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fantasus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Dec 2009 at 00:40
It seems strange that "water" should be such a problem only for Israel. Perhaps the other countries in the regiom have the  same problems? Were should they all "disappear"?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Dec 2009 at 00:47
You shouldn't be since the strip of land that is Israel is rubbish, resource wise, the fertile territory is in Palestine, that is why they destroy Palestinian farms and make them part of settlements.

They wanted to annexe southern Lebanon for its water, in fact I have no doubt that without strong Lebanese resistance that there would be settlements in southern Lebanon today. Golan Heights is the same issue I believe.


Edited by Zagros - 19 Dec 2009 at 00:51
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