Also, Wisconsin is a swing-vote state. Right from the get-go, most states are either clearly red (conservative Republican) or clearly blue (liberal Democratic). Thus it may pay off more to campaign in a swing-vote state, which can go either way. I think that Florida and Ohio are also swing-vote states.

In the electoral college, for most states, it's winner-take-all. Whoever gets the most popular votes gets all of that state's electoral votes. I n the election, it's almost a predestined fact which candidate will get the red states' electoral votes, and which candidate   will get the blue states' electoral votes. In the swing states, even if the popular vote is very close, it doesn't matter, all of the electoral votes will go to the winner. 

This also puts 3rd party candidates at a serious disadvantage in the electoral college. The electoral system  favors the 2 mainstream political parties. There's no need for the winner to have an absolute majority (51% or more) of votes. If one candidate gets 34% of the popular vote, another gets 33%, and a third also gets 33%, the first candidate will get 100% of that states' electoral votes.   

This also puts 3rd party candidates at a serious disadvantage in the electoral college. The electoral system  favors the 2 mainstream political parties. There's no need for the winner to have an absolute majority (51% or more) of votes. If one candidate gets 34% of the popular vote, another gets 33%, and a third also gets 33%, the first candidate will get 100% of that states' electoral votes.

Jeez, Is this an idea whose time has come? It sure don't feel right. Certainly can see why the DNC hates the electoral college but I think its fair :)

I wouldn't say Mitt Romney is quite dead. But I doubt he could mount an effective challenge to Trump. I think that Bernie Sanders did significantly better in 2016 than anyone expected him to. I think he'll actually improve this time around, too, but it still won't be enough to overcome Trump.  Trump's much-vaunted tax-cut didn't amount to a hill of beans for working-class people (It came to a tax savings of perhaps $150 per year for those who didn't itemize and took the standard-deduction) but they are still hoping that he'll come through for them in a second term. But Sanders' message of Medicare for All is resonating with more and more people,  and it will stay in the forefront.

Interesting comments.  The juggling act of tax cuts and benefits for all has a mutually exclusive quality that will always be difficult to reconcile.  In the US at least, no politician with a functioning brain is going to favor tax increases.  There is no upside to that (of course there is no upside to cutting spending either, but that is all another argument).

All the Repub/Trump noise about steel mills opening all over the country and coal mines opening and all the jobs  and so on is just background noise.  No one thinks that is happening.  A populist ex-Democrat and current convenient Republican, Mr. Trump has cast himself as a great white hope and that is about all there is to any popularity he has.  

Even Republican White evangelicals, who are supposed to be Christian in outlook and practice, support him by something like 87%.  What they approve of is that their president doesn't like swarthy foreigners.  There isn't much else involved.  Media conspiracy theorists stoke fear and resentment; they are ready to buy into the M.S.M. being "enemies of the people" because of ratings and the effect on their income.  Don't ask them about public policy because they really don't care.  These days he who can manipulate media and form supporters based on fear and hate has a great advantage.

Aside from all that, the Democrats don't have anything to counter Trump's celebrity status in the media age.  He is not really a politician.  He is a professional personality and a showman.  O.J. Simpson and Michael Jackson showed how celebrities are Teflon-coated in many respects.  

All that stuff about POTUS's disengagement in office; his disinterest in policy and in national security concerns will be difficult to overcome by "Medicare for all" and free university.  Trump has shown he can get at what he wants by not paying a price for anything.  The "Wall" is just a finger to his opponents and its isn't costing him anything; it energizes his "base.".  

All his Mar-a-Lago buddies got actual tax cuts, but they vote too I guess. 

That's politics.  It is highly unlikely that Romney will be a credible primary challenger, but who knows what will happen in the next 12 months.  There may be an "asset bubble" close to bursting, and when the inevitable recession follows, that may be in the middle of the election year.

I generally don't believe in "Conspiracy" but I do believe in conspiracies.  I think it was Lincoln who said you could full some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all of the time."  There is also the statement that three men can keep a secret, if two of them are dead.  Most secrets are not lost because of oppression, except for the oppression of time, forgetfulness.

I don't think that the media and establishment radicals are biased against conservatives in the sense of an overarching conspiracy of the press, the educational establishment, and the entertainment industry.  Or maybe I should say that they _are_ biased, in a knee jerk unthinking reflex action against anything that comes from before they thought it.  It is not a conspiracy, it is a group think, a herd morality (or mentality take your pick).  They honestly believe that everything can be planned out and regulated, and that there are no problems with that.  They believe that the problem with socialism is that it has not been properly tried, as Jordan Peterson points out, they believe that if they were to do, they could get right although everybody else who has done, has 'just happened' to get it wrong.

The socialist believe we must throw out the system to save it, and ourselves, that is why the democrats these days are trying to slit the system's throat (and ours with it). 

I can't vote for Trump, probably do third party candidate because the democrats show they are in love with the lunatic fringe.  Biden publicly said that prisoners can choose their sex, and thus whether they go to a men's prison or women's prison.  Already, there are transwomen fighters that are beating the crap out of actual women fighters.  Or transwomen runners beating actual women runners.  Men have an inherent athletic advantage, if Serena Williams competed against men, she would be something like 350 in the world ranking.  But, if you are a trans woman, then you can have an athletic advantage against real women.  How they do on lifespan, well I guess suicide is high amongst transwomen.  Is that because they are so oppressed? Or is that from a base male suicide rate, and people who were confused about their identity before, but also during and after.  But, if you can't compete with the big boys, you can become trans and dominate the girls.  Outside, or in a female prison, according to Biden.

From what I understand....  Doctors are experimenting with gender reassignment surgery, but they don't tend to keep track of transexuals after the procedure.  In other words, a "solution" is implemented for a (perceived) problem, but after the solution, the results are not keep track of.  Suicide is (still) a problem, but hey, as far as the doctors are concerned, out of sight out of mind.  Of course, perhaps it works for awhile as a relatively short term fix, but we really need to understand it more long term.  Some are opting for undoing the transition.  Sexologists (Debrah Soh on JRE) are butting heads with transactivists who are urging more and more conversions at younger and younger ages.  Sexologists have discovered that if you have men with gender dysphoria as a young teenage, and you don't push for reassignment, they will turn out normal(ly adjusted).  They will be gay, but will be well-adjusted individuals.

Didn't mean to go on so long,

The democrats need to convince people of two things in order to beat Trump, they need to convince them that they are sane, and that they are competent on a basic level.  We'll get more into that next time.  

Not being mean to trans peeps or Corn Pop. THE JOKE IS-Sleepy, Creepy Uncle Joe Biden.


Edited by Vanuatu - 19 Feb 2020 at 11:39